November 9, 2023 Headlines

The Treasury curve is bear steepening to start the day in sympathy with similar moves in German and U.K. markets overnight. Initial jobless claims came in at 217,000 last week, as expected and down slightly from the prior week. According to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), commercial and multifamily mortgage origination plunged 49% year-over-year in the third quarter and was down 7% versus the prior quarter. According to the MBA’s analysis, the largest year-over-year decline in Q3 occurred in health care property loans, down 76%, followed by declines in hotel, retail, multifamily and office loans, all of which were down approximately 50%. Multiple Fed leaders will speak at separate events today, including Powell this afternoon. Yesterday, Philadelphia Fed President Harker (current voter) suggested the Fed will stay higher for longer with no sign of near-term rate cuts. In other words, the official company position.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date	Event	Survey	Actual	Prior	Revised
11/9/2023	Initial Jobless Claims	218k	217k	217k	220k
11/9/2023	Continuing Claims	1820k	1834k	1818k	1812k
11/10/2023	U. of Mich. Sentiment	63.8	—	63.8	—
11/10/2023	U. of Mich. Current Conditions	70.3	—	70.6	—
11/10/2023	U. of Mich. Expectations	61	—	59.3	—
11/10/2023	U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation	4.00%	—	4.20%	—
11/10/2023	U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation	3.00%	—	3.00%	—
11/13/2023	NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations	—	—	3.67%	—
11/13/2023	Monthly Budget Statement	-$52.0b	—	-$171.0b	—
11/14/2023	NFIB Small Business Optimism	—	—	90.8	—
11/14/2023	Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY	—	—	-0.10%	0.00%
11/14/2023	CPI MoM	0.10%	—	0.40%	—
11/14/2023	CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM	0.30%	—	0.30%	—
11/14/2023	CPI YoY	3.30%	—	3.70%	—
11/14/2023	CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY	4.10%	—	4.10%	—
11/14/2023	CPI Index NSA	307.715	—	307.789	—
11/14/2023	CPI Core Index SA	—	—	310.661	—
11/14/2023	Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY	—	—	0.50%	—
11/15/2023	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	—	2.50%	—
11/15/2023	Retail Sales Advance MoM	-0.40%	—	0.70%	—
11/15/2023	Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM	-0.20%	—	0.60%	—
11/15/2023	Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas	0.20%	—	0.60%	—
11/15/2023	Retail Sales Control Group	0.10%	—	0.60%	—
11/15/2023	PPI Final Demand MoM	0.10%	—	0.50%	—
11/15/2023	PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM	0.30%	—	0.30%	—
11/15/2023	PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM	—	—	0.20%	—
11/15/2023	PPI Final Demand YoY	—	—	2.20%	—
11/15/2023	PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY	—	—	2.70%	—
11/15/2023	PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY	—	—	2.80%	—
11/15/2023	Empire Manufacturing	-2.1	—	-4.6	—
11/15/2023	Business Inventories	0.40%	—	0.40%	—
11/16/2023	Import Price Index MoM	-0.30%	—	0.10%	—
11/16/2023	New York Fed Services Business Activity	—	—	-19.1	—
11/16/2023	Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM	—	—	-0.30%	—
11/16/2023	Import Price Index YoY	—	—	-1.70%	—
11/16/2023	Export Price Index MoM	—	—	0.70%	—
11/16/2023	Export Price Index YoY	—	—	-4.10%	—
11/16/2023	Initial Jobless Claims	—	—	217k	—
11/16/2023	Continuing Claims	—	—	1834k	—
11/16/2023	Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook	-11.5	—	-9	—
11/16/2023	Industrial Production MoM	-0.30%	—	0.30%	—
11/16/2023	Capacity Utilization	79.40%	—	79.70%	—
11/16/2023	Manufacturing (SIC) Production	—	—	0.40%	—
11/16/2023	NAHB Housing Market Index	40	—	40	—
11/16/2023	Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity	—	—	-8	—
11/16/2023	Net Long-term TIC Flows	—	—	$63.5b	—
11/16/2023	Total Net TIC Flows	—	—	$134.4b	—

Subscribe Today!

Subscribe to our email list and get the latest articles and announcements from ALM First.

Recent Articles

December 1, 2023 Headlines November 30, 2023
November 30, 2023 Headlines November 29, 2023
November 29, 2023 Headlines November 29, 2023

ALM First offers investment advisory services through ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC, which is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC nor does it indicate that the firm has attained a particular level of skill or ability. The information contained herein does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation for you to purchase or sell any specific security. You are solely responsible for reviewing the content and for any actions you take or choose not to take based on your review of such content.Information contained herein was derived from third party sources as indicated. While such information is believed to be reliable, no representation or warranty is made concerning the accuracy of any information presented. We have not and will not independently verify this information. Where such sources include opinions and projections, such opinions and projections should be ascribed only to the applicable third party source and not to ALM First.Statements herein that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance are forward-looking statements. Such “forward-looking” statements are based on various assumptions, which assumptions may not prove to be correct. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that such assumptions and statements will accurately predict future events or actual performance. No representation or warranty can be given that the estimates, opinions or assumptions made herein will prove to be accurate. Any projections and forward-looking statements included herein should be considered speculative and are qualified in their entirety by the information and risks disclosed in the confidential offering document. Actual results for any period may or may not approximate such forward-looking statements. No representations or warranties whatsoever are made by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC or any other person or entity as to the future profitability of investments recommended by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC.