November 9, 2023 Headlines

The Treasury curve is bear steepening to start the day in sympathy with similar moves in German and U.K. markets overnight. Initial jobless claims came in at 217,000 last week, as expected and down slightly from the prior week. According to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), commercial and multifamily mortgage origination plunged 49% year-over-year in the third quarter and was down 7% versus the prior quarter. According to the MBA’s analysis, the largest year-over-year decline in Q3 occurred in health care property loans, down 76%, followed by declines in hotel, retail, multifamily and office loans, all of which were down approximately 50%. Multiple Fed leaders will speak at separate events today, including Powell this afternoon. Yesterday, Philadelphia Fed President Harker (current voter) suggested the Fed will stay higher for longer with no sign of near-term rate cuts. In other words, the official company position.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

11/9/2023Initial Jobless Claims218k217k217k220k
11/9/2023Continuing Claims1820k1834k1818k1812k
11/10/2023U. of Mich. Sentiment63.863.8
11/10/2023U. of Mich. Current Conditions70.370.6
11/10/2023U. of Mich. Expectations6159.3
11/10/2023U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation4.00%4.20%
11/10/2023U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation3.00%3.00%
11/13/2023NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations3.67%
11/13/2023Monthly Budget Statement-$52.0b-$171.0b
11/14/2023NFIB Small Business Optimism90.8
11/14/2023Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY-0.10%0.00%
11/14/2023CPI MoM0.10%0.40%
11/14/2023CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.30%0.30%
11/14/2023CPI YoY3.30%3.70%
11/14/2023CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY4.10%4.10%
11/14/2023CPI Index NSA307.715307.789
11/14/2023CPI Core Index SA310.661
11/14/2023Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY0.50%
11/15/2023MBA Mortgage Applications2.50%
11/15/2023Retail Sales Advance MoM-0.40%0.70%
11/15/2023Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM-0.20%0.60%
11/15/2023Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.20%0.60%
11/15/2023Retail Sales Control Group0.10%0.60%
11/15/2023PPI Final Demand MoM0.10%0.50%
11/15/2023PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.30%0.30%
11/15/2023PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.20%
11/15/2023PPI Final Demand YoY2.20%
11/15/2023PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.70%
11/15/2023PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY2.80%
11/15/2023Empire Manufacturing-2.1-4.6
11/15/2023Business Inventories0.40%0.40%
11/16/2023Import Price Index MoM-0.30%0.10%
11/16/2023New York Fed Services Business Activity-19.1
11/16/2023Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM-0.30%
11/16/2023Import Price Index YoY-1.70%
11/16/2023Export Price Index MoM0.70%
11/16/2023Export Price Index YoY-4.10%
11/16/2023Initial Jobless Claims217k
11/16/2023Continuing Claims1834k
11/16/2023Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook-11.5-9
11/16/2023Industrial Production MoM-0.30%0.30%
11/16/2023Capacity Utilization79.40%79.70%
11/16/2023Manufacturing (SIC) Production0.40%
11/16/2023NAHB Housing Market Index4040
11/16/2023Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity-8
11/16/2023Net Long-term TIC Flows$63.5b
11/16/2023Total Net TIC Flows$134.4b


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