Overnight weakness in global equity markets is sparking a bid for Treasuries this morning, with yields 1-2 bps lower across the curve. Today’s sentiment in risk markets is mostly attributable to Chinese economic concerns and continued weakness in crude oil prices. Regarding the latter, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures are down 1.6% today to the lowest level in 8 months. WTI prices have now fallen 10 consecutive days and are now down 17% on the month. (WTI -1.3% and -17% MTD).
Yesterday’s FOMC meeting was largely a snoozer, as expected. The official statement had no significant changes. It did acknowledge that household spending “continued to grow strongly” since the last meeting, and “business investment moderated form its rapid pace earlier in the year.” The market response to the statement was muted, and the minutes of the meeting (released in 3 weeks) may provide additional clarity on any discussion of the terminal value of the Fed’s balance sheet and the interest on excess reserves (IOER) rate relative to the effective fed funds rate.
Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior |
| 11/05 | Markit US Services PMI | 54.6 | 54.8 | 54.7 |
| 11/05 | Markit US Composite PMI | — | 54.9 | 54.8 |
| 11/05 | ISM Non-Manufacturing Index | 59 | 60.3 | 61.6 |
| 11/06 | JOLTS Job Openings | 7085 | 7009 | 7136 |
| 11/07 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | -4.00% | -2.50% |
| 11/07 | Consumer Credit | $15.000b | $10.923b | $20.078b |
| 11/08 | Initial Jobless Claims | 214k | 214k | 214k |
| 11/08 | Continuing Claims | 1634k | 1623k | 1631k |
| 11/08 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | 61.3 | 60.3 |
| 11/08 | Mortgage Delinquencies | — | 4.47% | 4.36% |
| 11/08 | MBA Mortgage Foreclosures | — | 0.99% | 1.05% |
| 11/08 | FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) | 2.25% | 2.25% | 2.25% |
| 11/08 | FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) | 2.00% | 2.00% | 2.00% |
| 11/08 | Interest Rate on Excess Reserves | 2.20% | 2.20% | 2.20% |
| 11/09 | PPI Final Demand MoM | 0.20% | 0.60% | 0.20% |
| 11/09 | PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.20% | 0.50% | 0.20% |
| 11/09 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM | 0.20% | 0.20% | 0.40% |
| 11/09 | PPI Final Demand YoY | 2.50% | 2.90% | 2.60% |
| 11/09 | PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 2.30% | 2.60% | 2.50% |
| 11/09 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY | — | 2.80% | 2.90% |
| 11/09 | Bloomberg Nov. United States Economic Survey (Table) | |||
| 11/09 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.30% |
| 11/09 | Wholesale Trade Sales MoM | 0.40% | — | 0.80% |
| 11/09 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 98 | — | 98.6 |
| 11/09 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | 114.9 | — | 113.1 |
| 11/09 | U. of Mich. Expectations | 87.2 | — | 89.3 |
| 11/09 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.90% |
| 11/09 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.40% |