Treasury prices are lower despite weaker equities (S&P 500 futures down 14 points). Japan’s Nikkei up 2% in early trading and reached a new 26-year high before sharply reversing course and closing in the red. The reversal is being attributed to profit taking, and perhaps equity investors are becoming more uncertain that the strong rally in global markets can persist amid reflation doubts and U.S. tax reform uncertainty.  Speaking of tax reform, a new CBO analysis suggests that the current House bill would expand the deficit by $1.7 trillion over 10 years, which is $200 billion above the target mark for being able to use budget reconciliation measures (avoids Senate filibuster). The Senate was planning to release its detailed tax bill today, but reports this morning suggest that it will only be a conceptual overview as opposed to comprehensive text. ALM First will be closed tomorrow in observance of Veterans Day.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

Date Event Surv(M) Actual Prior
11/07 JOLTS Job Openings 6075 6093 6082
11/07 Consumer Credit $17.500b $20.830b $13.065b
11/08 MBA Mortgage Applications 0.00% -2.60%
11/09 Bloomberg Nov. United States Economic Survey (Table)
11/09 Initial Jobless Claims 232k 239k 229k
11/09 Continuing Claims 1885k 1901k 1884k
11/09 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 51.7
11/09 Wholesale Inventories MoM 0.30% 0.30%
11/09 Wholesale Trade Sales MoM 0.90% 1.70%
11/10 U. of Mich. Sentiment 100.9 100.7
11/10 U. of Mich. Current Conditions 116.3 116.5
11/10 U. of Mich. Expectations 91 90.5
11/10 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation 2.40%
11/10 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation 2.50%