October 1, 2020 Headlines

Hope that a new Covid fiscal relief package is closer to getting done is boosting risk assets and pushing Treasury yields higher and steeper. Multiple media outlets are reporting that Treasury Secretary Mnuchin presented a $1.6 trillion relief package to House Speaker Pelosi, which is closer to the most recent House Democrat proposal totaling $2.2 trillion. The House delayed a vote on that package yesterday as the two sides continue to negotiate. If Mnuchin were able to reach a deal with House Democrats, it is still not clear whether Senate Republicans would back a deal of that size.

Initial jobless claims fell more than expected to 837,000 last week. The September jobs report will be released tomorrow, and economists will be looking to see if the delay in additional fiscal aid has had a significant impact on the pace of recovery in the labor market. Personal income fell 2.7% in August (-2.5% expected), reflecting the loss of enhanced federal unemployment benefits at the end of July. Personal spending was better than expected, and core PCE was higher than expected as well, suggesting that inflation might be showing some signs of life again (partially contributing to today’s curve steepening).

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date	Event	Survey	Actual	Prior	Revised
9/28/20	Dallas Fed Manf. Activity	9.5	13.6	8	—
9/29/20	Advance Goods Trade Balance	-$81.8b	-$82.9b	-$79.3b	-$80.1b
9/29/20	Wholesale Inventories MoM	-0.10%	0.50%	-0.30%	-0.10%
9/29/20	Retail Inventories MoM	1.10%	0.80%	1.20%	—
9/29/20	S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA	0.10%	0.55%	0.00%	—
9/29/20	S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA	3.60%	3.95%	3.46%	—
9/29/20	S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index	—	226.55	225.13	225.14
9/29/20	S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA	—	4.78%	4.29%	4.35%
9/29/20	S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index	—	221.64	219.82	219.92
9/29/20	Conf. Board Consumer Confidence	90	101.8	84.8	86.3
9/29/20	Conf. Board Present Situation	—	98.5	84.2	85.8
9/29/20	Conf. Board Expectations	—	104	85.2	86.6
9/30/20	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	-4.80%	6.80%	—
9/30/20	ADP Employment Change	649k	749k	428k	481k
9/30/20	MNI Chicago PMI	52	62.4	51.2	—
9/30/20	GDP Annualized QoQ	-31.70%	-31.40%	-31.70%	—
9/30/20	Personal Consumption	-34.10%	-33.20%	-34.10%	—
9/30/20	GDP Price Index	-2.00%	-1.80%	-2.00%	—
9/30/20	Core PCE QoQ	-1.00%	-0.80%	-1.00%	—
9/30/20	Pending Home Sales MoM	3.10%	8.80%	5.90%	—
9/30/20	Pending Home Sales NSA YoY	17.60%	20.50%	15.40%	—
10/1/20	Challenger Job Cuts YoY	—	185.90%	116.50%	—
10/1/20	Initial Jobless Claims	850k	837k	870k	873k
10/1/20	Continuing Claims	12200k	11767k	12580k	12747k
10/1/20	Personal Income	-2.50%	-2.70%	0.40%	0.50%
10/1/20	Personal Spending	0.80%	1.00%	1.90%	1.50%
10/1/20	Real Personal Spending	0.50%	0.70%	1.60%	1.10%
10/1/20	PCE Deflator MoM	0.30%	0.30%	0.30%	0.40%
10/1/20	PCE Deflator YoY	1.20%	1.40%	1.00%	1.10%
10/1/20	PCE Core Deflator MoM	0.30%	0.30%	0.30%	0.40%
10/1/20	PCE Core Deflator YoY	1.40%	1.60%	1.30%	1.40%
10/1/20	Bloomberg Consumer Comfort	—	—	49.8	—
10/1/20	Markit US Manufacturing PMI	53.5	—	53.5	—
10/1/20	Construction Spending MoM	0.70%	—	0.10%	—
10/1/20	ISM Manufacturing	56.5	—	56	—
10/1/20	ISM New Orders	65.2	—	67.6	—
10/1/20	ISM Prices Paid	58.8	—	59.5	—
10/1/20	ISM Employment	—	—	46.4	—
10/1/20	Wards Total Vehicle Sales	15.70m	—	15.19m	—
10/2/20	Change in Nonfarm Payrolls	872k	—	1371k	—
10/2/20	Two-Month Payroll Net Revision	—	—	-39k	—
10/2/20	Change in Private Payrolls	900k	—	1027k	—
10/2/20	Change in Manufact. Payrolls	35k	—	29k	—
10/2/20	Unemployment Rate	8.20%	—	8.40%	—
10/2/20	Average Hourly Earnings MoM	0.20%	—	0.40%	—
10/2/20	Average Hourly Earnings YoY	4.80%	—	4.70%	—
10/2/20	Average Weekly Hours All Employees	34.6	—	34.6	—
10/2/20	Labor Force Participation Rate	62.00%	—	61.70%	—
10/2/20	Underemployment Rate	—	—	14.20%	—
10/2/20	U. of Mich. Sentiment	79	—	78.9	—
10/2/20	Factory Orders	0.90%	—	6.40%	—
10/2/20	U. of Mich. Current Conditions	—	—	87.5	—
10/2/20	Factory Orders Ex Trans	1.10%	—	2.10%	—
10/2/20	U. of Mich. Expectations	—	—	73.3	—
10/2/20	Durable Goods Orders	0.40%	—	0.40%	—
10/2/20	U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation	—	—	2.70%	—
10/2/20	Durables Ex Transportation	0.40%	—	0.40%	—
10/2/20	U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation	—	—	2.60%	—
10/2/20	Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air	1.70%	—	1.80%	—
10/2/20	Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air	—	—	1.50%	—

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