October 1, 2020 Headlines

Hope that a new Covid fiscal relief package is closer to getting done is boosting risk assets and pushing Treasury yields higher and steeper. Multiple media outlets are reporting that Treasury Secretary Mnuchin presented a $1.6 trillion relief package to House Speaker Pelosi, which is closer to the most recent House Democrat proposal totaling $2.2 trillion. The House delayed a vote on that package yesterday as the two sides continue to negotiate. If Mnuchin were able to reach a deal with House Democrats, it is still not clear whether Senate Republicans would back a deal of that size.

Initial jobless claims fell more than expected to 837,000 last week. The September jobs report will be released tomorrow, and economists will be looking to see if the delay in additional fiscal aid has had a significant impact on the pace of recovery in the labor market. Personal income fell 2.7% in August (-2.5% expected), reflecting the loss of enhanced federal unemployment benefits at the end of July. Personal spending was better than expected, and core PCE was higher than expected as well, suggesting that inflation might be showing some signs of life again (partially contributing to today’s curve steepening).

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
9/28/20 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity 9.5 13.6 8 —
9/29/20 Advance Goods Trade Balance -$81.8b -$82.9b -$79.3b -$80.1b
9/29/20 Wholesale Inventories MoM -0.10% 0.50% -0.30% -0.10%
9/29/20 Retail Inventories MoM 1.10% 0.80% 1.20% —
9/29/20 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA 0.10% 0.55% 0.00% —
9/29/20 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA 3.60% 3.95% 3.46% —
9/29/20 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index — 226.55 225.13 225.14
9/29/20 S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA — 4.78% 4.29% 4.35%
9/29/20 S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index — 221.64 219.82 219.92
9/29/20 Conf. Board Consumer Confidence 90 101.8 84.8 86.3
9/29/20 Conf. Board Present Situation — 98.5 84.2 85.8
9/29/20 Conf. Board Expectations — 104 85.2 86.6
9/30/20 MBA Mortgage Applications — -4.80% 6.80% —
9/30/20 ADP Employment Change 649k 749k 428k 481k
9/30/20 MNI Chicago PMI 52 62.4 51.2 —
9/30/20 GDP Annualized QoQ -31.70% -31.40% -31.70% —
9/30/20 Personal Consumption -34.10% -33.20% -34.10% —
9/30/20 GDP Price Index -2.00% -1.80% -2.00% —
9/30/20 Core PCE QoQ -1.00% -0.80% -1.00% —
9/30/20 Pending Home Sales MoM 3.10% 8.80% 5.90% —
9/30/20 Pending Home Sales NSA YoY 17.60% 20.50% 15.40% —
10/1/20 Challenger Job Cuts YoY — 185.90% 116.50% —
10/1/20 Initial Jobless Claims 850k 837k 870k 873k
10/1/20 Continuing Claims 12200k 11767k 12580k 12747k
10/1/20 Personal Income -2.50% -2.70% 0.40% 0.50%
10/1/20 Personal Spending 0.80% 1.00% 1.90% 1.50%
10/1/20 Real Personal Spending 0.50% 0.70% 1.60% 1.10%
10/1/20 PCE Deflator MoM 0.30% 0.30% 0.30% 0.40%
10/1/20 PCE Deflator YoY 1.20% 1.40% 1.00% 1.10%
10/1/20 PCE Core Deflator MoM 0.30% 0.30% 0.30% 0.40%
10/1/20 PCE Core Deflator YoY 1.40% 1.60% 1.30% 1.40%
10/1/20 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort — — 49.8 —
10/1/20 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 53.5 — 53.5 —
10/1/20 Construction Spending MoM 0.70% — 0.10% —
10/1/20 ISM Manufacturing 56.5 — 56 —
10/1/20 ISM New Orders 65.2 — 67.6 —
10/1/20 ISM Prices Paid 58.8 — 59.5 —
10/1/20 ISM Employment — — 46.4 —
10/1/20 Wards Total Vehicle Sales 15.70m — 15.19m —
10/2/20 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 872k — 1371k —
10/2/20 Two-Month Payroll Net Revision — — -39k —
10/2/20 Change in Private Payrolls 900k — 1027k —
10/2/20 Change in Manufact. Payrolls 35k — 29k —
10/2/20 Unemployment Rate 8.20% — 8.40% —
10/2/20 Average Hourly Earnings MoM 0.20% — 0.40% —
10/2/20 Average Hourly Earnings YoY 4.80% — 4.70% —
10/2/20 Average Weekly Hours All Employees 34.6 — 34.6 —
10/2/20 Labor Force Participation Rate 62.00% — 61.70% —
10/2/20 Underemployment Rate — — 14.20% —
10/2/20 U. of Mich. Sentiment 79 — 78.9 —
10/2/20 Factory Orders 0.90% — 6.40% —
10/2/20 U. of Mich. Current Conditions — — 87.5 —
10/2/20 Factory Orders Ex Trans 1.10% — 2.10% —
10/2/20 U. of Mich. Expectations — — 73.3 —
10/2/20 Durable Goods Orders 0.40% — 0.40% —
10/2/20 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation — — 2.70% —
10/2/20 Durables Ex Transportation 0.40% — 0.40% —
10/2/20 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation — — 2.60% —
10/2/20 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air 1.70% — 1.80% —
10/2/20 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air — — 1.50% —

 

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