October 1, 2020 Headlines

Hope that a new Covid fiscal relief package is closer to getting done is boosting risk assets and pushing Treasury yields higher and steeper. Multiple media outlets are reporting that Treasury Secretary Mnuchin presented a $1.6 trillion relief package to House Speaker Pelosi, which is closer to the most recent House Democrat proposal totaling $2.2 trillion. The House delayed a vote on that package yesterday as the two sides continue to negotiate. If Mnuchin were able to reach a deal with House Democrats, it is still not clear whether Senate Republicans would back a deal of that size.

Initial jobless claims fell more than expected to 837,000 last week. The September jobs report will be released tomorrow, and economists will be looking to see if the delay in additional fiscal aid has had a significant impact on the pace of recovery in the labor market. Personal income fell 2.7% in August (-2.5% expected), reflecting the loss of enhanced federal unemployment benefits at the end of July. Personal spending was better than expected, and core PCE was higher than expected as well, suggesting that inflation might be showing some signs of life again (partially contributing to today’s curve steepening).

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
9/28/20Dallas Fed Manf. Activity9.513.68
9/29/20Advance Goods Trade Balance-$81.8b-$82.9b-$79.3b-$80.1b
9/29/20Wholesale Inventories MoM-0.10%0.50%-0.30%-0.10%
9/29/20Retail Inventories MoM1.10%0.80%1.20%
9/29/20S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA0.10%0.55%0.00%
9/29/20S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA3.60%3.95%3.46%
9/29/20S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index226.55225.13225.14
9/29/20S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA4.78%4.29%4.35%
9/29/20S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index221.64219.82219.92
9/29/20Conf. Board Consumer Confidence90101.884.886.3
9/29/20Conf. Board Present Situation98.584.285.8
9/29/20Conf. Board Expectations10485.286.6
9/30/20MBA Mortgage Applications-4.80%6.80%
9/30/20ADP Employment Change649k749k428k481k
9/30/20MNI Chicago PMI5262.451.2
9/30/20GDP Annualized QoQ-31.70%-31.40%-31.70%
9/30/20Personal Consumption-34.10%-33.20%-34.10%
9/30/20GDP Price Index-2.00%-1.80%-2.00%
9/30/20Core PCE QoQ-1.00%-0.80%-1.00%
9/30/20Pending Home Sales MoM3.10%8.80%5.90%
9/30/20Pending Home Sales NSA YoY17.60%20.50%15.40%
10/1/20Challenger Job Cuts YoY185.90%116.50%
10/1/20Initial Jobless Claims850k837k870k873k
10/1/20Continuing Claims12200k11767k12580k12747k
10/1/20Personal Income-2.50%-2.70%0.40%0.50%
10/1/20Personal Spending0.80%1.00%1.90%1.50%
10/1/20Real Personal Spending0.50%0.70%1.60%1.10%
10/1/20PCE Deflator MoM0.30%0.30%0.30%0.40%
10/1/20PCE Deflator YoY1.20%1.40%1.00%1.10%
10/1/20PCE Core Deflator MoM0.30%0.30%0.30%0.40%
10/1/20PCE Core Deflator YoY1.40%1.60%1.30%1.40%
10/1/20Bloomberg Consumer Comfort49.8
10/1/20Markit US Manufacturing PMI53.553.5
10/1/20Construction Spending MoM0.70%0.10%
10/1/20ISM Manufacturing56.556
10/1/20ISM New Orders65.267.6
10/1/20ISM Prices Paid58.859.5
10/1/20ISM Employment46.4
10/1/20Wards Total Vehicle Sales15.70m15.19m
10/2/20Change in Nonfarm Payrolls872k1371k
10/2/20Two-Month Payroll Net Revision-39k
10/2/20Change in Private Payrolls900k1027k
10/2/20Change in Manufact. Payrolls35k29k
10/2/20Unemployment Rate8.20%8.40%
10/2/20Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.20%0.40%
10/2/20Average Hourly Earnings YoY4.80%4.70%
10/2/20Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.634.6
10/2/20Labor Force Participation Rate62.00%61.70%
10/2/20Underemployment Rate14.20%
10/2/20U. of Mich. Sentiment7978.9
10/2/20Factory Orders0.90%6.40%
10/2/20U. of Mich. Current Conditions87.5
10/2/20Factory Orders Ex Trans1.10%2.10%
10/2/20U. of Mich. Expectations73.3
10/2/20Durable Goods Orders0.40%0.40%
10/2/20U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.70%
10/2/20Durables Ex Transportation0.40%0.40%
10/2/20U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.60%
10/2/20Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air1.70%1.80%
10/2/20Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air1.50%

 

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