October 10, 2023 Headlines

We open the week with a risk-off rally in Treasuries in response to the war between Israel and Hamas, as well as fresh worries from China’s beleaguered property sector. Regarding the latter, China’s largest property developer, Country Garden, has warned of a potential default on its international debt in a statement to the Hong Kong stock exchange. Separately, investors in another large Chinese developer, Evergrande, warned that the recent collapse in debt restructuring negotiations between the company and investors could have “a catastrophic effect” on other troubled companies in the sector according to the Wall Street journal. Treasury yields are 8-11 basis points lower as investors speculate that these external risks in combination with the recent increase in Treasury term premiums will dissuade Fed leaders from another rate hike in the current cycle. For this week’s domestic data calendar, the September CPI report will be the biggest item of focus (Thursday).

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date	Event	Survey	Actual	Prior	Revised
10/10/2023	NFIB Small Business Optimism	91	90.8	91.3	—
10/10/2023	Wholesale Inventories MoM	-0.10%	—	-0.10%	—
10/10/2023	Wholesale Trade Sales MoM	0.40%	—	0.80%	—
10/10/2023	NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations	—	—	3.63%	—
10/11/2023	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	—	-6.00%	—
10/11/2023	PPI Final Demand MoM	0.30%	—	0.70%	—
10/11/2023	PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM	0.20%	—	0.20%	—
10/11/2023	PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM	0.20%	—	0.30%	—
10/11/2023	PPI Final Demand YoY	1.60%	—	1.60%	—
10/11/2023	PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY	2.30%	—	2.20%	—
10/11/2023	PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY	2.90%	—	3.00%	—
10/11/2023	FOMC Meeting Minutes	—	—	—	—
10/12/2023	CPI MoM	0.30%	—	0.60%	—
10/12/2023	CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM	0.30%	—	0.30%	—
10/12/2023	CPI YoY	3.60%	—	3.70%	—
10/12/2023	CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY	4.10%	—	4.30%	—
10/12/2023	CPI Index NSA	307.444	—	307.026	—
10/12/2023	CPI Core Index SA	310.671	—	309.661	—
10/12/2023	Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY	—	—	0.50%	—
10/12/2023	Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY	—	—	0.30%	0.20%
10/12/2023	Initial Jobless Claims	210k	—	207k	—
10/12/2023	Continuing Claims	1677k	—	1664k	—
10/12/2023	Monthly Budget Statement	-$141.0b	—	$89.3b	—
10/13/2023	Import Price Index MoM	0.60%	—	0.50%	—
10/13/2023	Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM	0.00%	—	0.00%	—
10/13/2023	Import Price Index YoY	-1.40%	—	-3.00%	—
10/13/2023	Export Price Index MoM	0.50%	—	1.30%	—
10/13/2023	Export Price Index YoY	—	—	-5.50%	—
10/13/2023	U. of Mich. Sentiment	67.1	—	68.1	—
10/13/2023	U. of Mich. Current Conditions	70.4	—	71.4	—
10/13/2023	U. of Mich. Expectations	66.3	—	66	—
10/13/2023	U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation	3.20%	—	3.20%	—
10/13/2023	U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation	2.90%	—	2.80%	—
10/16/2023	Empire Manufacturing	-4	—	1.9	—
10/17/2023	Retail Sales Advance MoM	0.20%	—	0.60%	—
10/17/2023	Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM	0.20%	—	0.60%	—
10/17/2023	Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas	0.20%	—	0.20%	—
10/17/2023	Retail Sales Control Group	-0.30%	—	0.10%	—
10/17/2023	New York Fed Services Business Activity	—	—	-3	—
10/17/2023	Industrial Production MoM	-0.10%	—	0.40%	—
10/17/2023	Capacity Utilization	79.50%	—	79.70%	—
10/17/2023	Manufacturing (SIC) Production	-0.20%	—	0.10%	—
10/17/2023	Business Inventories	0.30%	—	0.00%	—
10/17/2023	NAHB Housing Market Index	45	—	45	—
10/17/2023	Net Long-term TIC Flows	—	—	$8.8b	—
10/17/2023	Total Net TIC Flows	—	—	$140.6b	—

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