October 10, 2023 Headlines

We open the week with a risk-off rally in Treasuries in response to the war between Israel and Hamas, as well as fresh worries from China’s beleaguered property sector. Regarding the latter, China’s largest property developer, Country Garden, has warned of a potential default on its international debt in a statement to the Hong Kong stock exchange. Separately, investors in another large Chinese developer, Evergrande, warned that the recent collapse in debt restructuring negotiations between the company and investors could have “a catastrophic effect” on other troubled companies in the sector according to the Wall Street journal. Treasury yields are 8-11 basis points lower as investors speculate that these external risks in combination with the recent increase in Treasury term premiums will dissuade Fed leaders from another rate hike in the current cycle. For this week’s domestic data calendar, the September CPI report will be the biggest item of focus (Thursday).

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

10/10/2023NFIB Small Business Optimism9190.891.3
10/10/2023Wholesale Inventories MoM-0.10%-0.10%
10/10/2023Wholesale Trade Sales MoM0.40%0.80%
10/10/2023NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations3.63%
10/11/2023MBA Mortgage Applications-6.00%
10/11/2023PPI Final Demand MoM0.30%0.70%
10/11/2023PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.20%
10/11/2023PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.20%0.30%
10/11/2023PPI Final Demand YoY1.60%1.60%
10/11/2023PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.30%2.20%
10/11/2023PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY2.90%3.00%
10/11/2023FOMC Meeting Minutes
10/12/2023CPI MoM0.30%0.60%
10/12/2023CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.30%0.30%
10/12/2023CPI YoY3.60%3.70%
10/12/2023CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY4.10%4.30%
10/12/2023CPI Index NSA307.444307.026
10/12/2023CPI Core Index SA310.671309.661
10/12/2023Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY0.50%
10/12/2023Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY0.30%0.20%
10/12/2023Initial Jobless Claims210k207k
10/12/2023Continuing Claims1677k1664k
10/12/2023Monthly Budget Statement-$141.0b$89.3b
10/13/2023Import Price Index MoM0.60%0.50%
10/13/2023Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.00%0.00%
10/13/2023Import Price Index YoY-1.40%-3.00%
10/13/2023Export Price Index MoM0.50%1.30%
10/13/2023Export Price Index YoY-5.50%
10/13/2023U. of Mich. Sentiment67.168.1
10/13/2023U. of Mich. Current Conditions70.471.4
10/13/2023U. of Mich. Expectations66.366
10/13/2023U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation3.20%3.20%
10/13/2023U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.90%2.80%
10/16/2023Empire Manufacturing-41.9
10/17/2023Retail Sales Advance MoM0.20%0.60%
10/17/2023Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.20%0.60%
10/17/2023Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.20%0.20%
10/17/2023Retail Sales Control Group-0.30%0.10%
10/17/2023New York Fed Services Business Activity-3
10/17/2023Industrial Production MoM-0.10%0.40%
10/17/2023Capacity Utilization79.50%79.70%
10/17/2023Manufacturing (SIC) Production-0.20%0.10%
10/17/2023Business Inventories0.30%0.00%
10/17/2023NAHB Housing Market Index4545
10/17/2023Net Long-term TIC Flows$8.8b
10/17/2023Total Net TIC Flows$140.6b

Subscribe Today!

Subscribe to our email list and get the latest articles and announcements from ALM First.

Recent Articles

ALM First offers investment advisory services through ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC, which is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC nor does it indicate that the firm has attained a particular level of skill or ability. The information contained herein does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation for you to purchase or sell any specific security. You are solely responsible for reviewing the content and for any actions you take or choose not to take based on your review of such content.Information contained herein was derived from third party sources as indicated. While such information is believed to be reliable, no representation or warranty is made concerning the accuracy of any information presented. We have not and will not independently verify this information. Where such sources include opinions and projections, such opinions and projections should be ascribed only to the applicable third party source and not to ALM First.Statements herein that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance are forward-looking statements. Such “forward-looking” statements are based on various assumptions, which assumptions may not prove to be correct. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that such assumptions and statements will accurately predict future events or actual performance. No representation or warranty can be given that the estimates, opinions or assumptions made herein will prove to be accurate. Any projections and forward-looking statements included herein should be considered speculative and are qualified in their entirety by the information and risks disclosed in the confidential offering document. Actual results for any period may or may not approximate such forward-looking statements. No representations or warranties whatsoever are made by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC or any other person or entity as to the future profitability of investments recommended by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC.