Treasury yields are higher this morning by about 2 to 3 basis points across the curve. Strong European economic data combined with the prospect of increased U.S. debt issuance pressured Treasuries in the overnight session which has continued into this morning. Inflation is the theme of this week’s data releases, and this morning the Bureau of Labor Statistics released PPI for September which came in as expected at an increase of 0.2% on a month over month basis. Core PPI, which excludes food and energy, also came in as expected at 0.2%. The print for September suggests that the August readings in which PPI actually contracted by 0.1% was just a blip and should have little impact on the Fed’s plan for gradual rate hikes.

Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group

 

Date Event Surv(M) Actual Prior
10/09 NFIB Small Business Optimism 108.3 107.9 108.8
10/10 MBA Mortgage Applications -1.70% 0.00%
10/10 PPI Final Demand MoM 0.20% 0.20% -0.10%
10/10 PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM 0.20% 0.20% -0.10%
10/10 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM 0.20% 0.40% 0.10%
10/10 PPI Final Demand YoY 2.70% 2.60% 2.80%
10/10 PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 2.50% 2.50% 2.30%
10/10 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY 2.90% 2.90%
10/10 Wholesale Inventories MoM 0.80% 0.80%
10/10 Wholesale Trade Sales MoM 0.50% 0.00%
10/11 CPI MoM 0.20% 0.20%
10/11 CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM 0.20% 0.10%
10/11 CPI YoY 2.40% 2.70%
10/11 CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 2.30% 2.20%
10/11 CPI Index NSA 252.702 252.146
10/11 CPI Core Index SA 258.634 258.141
10/11 Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY 0.50%
10/11 Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY 0.20%
10/11 Initial Jobless Claims 209k 207k
10/11 Continuing Claims 1660k 1650k
10/11 Bloomberg Oct. United States Economic Survey
10/11 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 61.6
10/11-10/18 Monthly Budget Statement $80.0b $7.9b
10/12 Import Price Index MoM 0.20% -0.60%
10/12 Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM -0.10% -0.20%
10/12 Import Price Index YoY 3.10% 3.70%
10/12 Export Price Index MoM 0.20% -0.10%
10/12 Export Price Index YoY 2.90% 3.60%
10/12 U. of Mich. Sentiment 100.5 100.1
10/12 U. of Mich. Current Conditions 115.2
10/12 U. of Mich. Expectations 90.5
10/12 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation 2.70%
10/12 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation 2.50%