Treasury yields are higher this morning by about 2 to 3 basis points across the curve. Strong European economic data combined with the prospect of increased U.S. debt issuance pressured Treasuries in the overnight session which has continued into this morning. Inflation is the theme of this week’s data releases, and this morning the Bureau of Labor Statistics released PPI for September which came in as expected at an increase of 0.2% on a month over month basis. Core PPI, which excludes food and energy, also came in as expected at 0.2%. The print for September suggests that the August readings in which PPI actually contracted by 0.1% was just a blip and should have little impact on the Fed’s plan for gradual rate hikes.

Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group


10/09NFIB Small Business Optimism108.3107.9108.8
10/10MBA Mortgage Applications-1.70%0.00%
10/10PPI Final Demand MoM0.20%0.20%-0.10%
10/10PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.20%-0.10%
10/10PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.20%0.40%0.10%
10/10PPI Final Demand YoY2.70%2.60%2.80%
10/10PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.50%2.50%2.30%
10/10PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY2.90%2.90%
10/10Wholesale Inventories MoM0.80%0.80%
10/10Wholesale Trade Sales MoM0.50%0.00%
10/11CPI MoM0.20%0.20%
10/11CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.10%
10/11CPI YoY2.40%2.70%
10/11CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.30%2.20%
10/11CPI Index NSA252.702252.146
10/11CPI Core Index SA258.634258.141
10/11Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY0.50%
10/11Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY0.20%
10/11Initial Jobless Claims209k207k
10/11Continuing Claims1660k1650k
10/11Bloomberg Oct. United States Economic Survey
10/11Bloomberg Consumer Comfort61.6
10/11-10/18Monthly Budget Statement$80.0b$7.9b
10/12Import Price Index MoM0.20%-0.60%
10/12Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM-0.10%-0.20%
10/12Import Price Index YoY3.10%3.70%
10/12Export Price Index MoM0.20%-0.10%
10/12Export Price Index YoY2.90%3.60%
10/12U. of Mich. Sentiment100.5100.1
10/12U. of Mich. Current Conditions115.2
10/12U. of Mich. Expectations90.5
10/12U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.70%
10/12U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.50%