October 11, 2023 Headlines

Today’s bond rally stalled after a higher-than-expected PPI print for September. The median forecast called for an increase of 0.3% but the actual number hit 0.5% on the back of higher gas prices which rose by 5.4%. Headline PPI is up 2.2% from last year. Core PPI, which excludes food and energy costs, rose by 0.3% vs 0.2% expected in September and is up 2.7% y/y.

Hafizan Hamzah
Senior Director, Investment Management Group

DateEventSurv(M)ActualPriorRevised
10/11/23MBA Mortgage Applications—0.60%-6.00%—
10/11/23PPI Final Demand MoM0.30%0.50%0.70%—
10/11/23PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.30%0.20%—
10/11/23PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.20%0.20%0.30%0.20%
10/11/23PPI Final Demand YoY1.60%2.20%1.60%2.00%
10/11/23PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.30%2.70%2.20%2.50%
10/11/23PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY3.00%2.80%3.00%2.90%
10/11/23FOMC Meeting Minutes————
10/12/23CPI MoM0.30%—0.60%—
10/12/23CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.30%—0.30%—
10/12/23CPI YoY3.60%—3.70%—
10/12/23CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY4.10%—4.30%—
10/12/23CPI Index NSA307.427—307.026—
10/12/23CPI Core Index SA310.641—309.661—
10/12/23Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY——0.50%—
10/12/23Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY——0.30%0.20%
10/12/23Initial Jobless Claims210k—207k—
10/12/23Continuing Claims1676k—1664k—
10/12/23Monthly Budget Statement-$141.5b—-$429.8b—
10/13/23Import Price Index MoM0.50%—0.50%—
10/13/23Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM-0.10%—0.00%—
10/13/23Import Price Index YoY-1.40%—-3.00%—
10/13/23Export Price Index MoM0.50%—1.30%—
10/13/23Export Price Index YoY-4.00%—-5.50%—
10/13/23U. of Mich. Sentiment67.1—68.1—
10/13/23U. of Mich. Current Conditions70.3—71.4—
10/13/23U. of Mich. Expectations65.7—66—
10/13/23U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation3.20%—3.20%—
10/13/23U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.90%—2.80%—

 

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