September CPI came in higher than expected at +0.4% vs +0.3% forecasted, the print has sent yields higher with 2-year back above 5% at 5.07%. Shelter costs were the main driver of the increase, accounting for half of the move, gas prices were also a major contributor. Primary rents were up 0.49% and owners’ equivalent rent increased by 0.56%. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy costs, was 0.3% last month, right in line with expectations.
Initial jobless claims came in slightly lower than expected at 209,000 vs 210,000. Last week’s claims number was a small uptick from the week prior at 207,000. Overall, the labor market continues to hum along which is boosting consumer demand and prices.
Senior Director, Investment Management Group
|10/12/23||CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM||0.30%||0.30%||0.30%||—|
|10/12/23||CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY||4.10%||4.10%||4.30%||—|
|10/12/23||CPI Index NSA||307.45||307.789||307.026||—|
|10/12/23||CPI Core Index SA||310.604||310.661||309.661||—|
|10/12/23||Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY||—||0.50%||0.50%||—|
|10/12/23||Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY||—||-0.10%||0.30%||0.20%|
|10/12/23||Initial Jobless Claims||210k||209k||207k||209k|
|10/12/23||Monthly Budget Statement||-$146.0b||—||-$429.8b||—|
|10/13/23||Import Price Index MoM||0.50%||—||0.50%||—|
|10/13/23||Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM||-0.10%||—||0.00%||—|
|10/13/23||Import Price Index YoY||-1.40%||—||-3.00%||—|
|10/13/23||Export Price Index MoM||0.50%||—||1.30%||—|
|10/13/23||Export Price Index YoY||-4.00%||—||-5.50%||—|
|10/13/23||U. of Mich. Sentiment||67||—||68.1||—|
|10/13/23||U. of Mich. Current Conditions||70.3||—||71.4||—|
|10/13/23||U. of Mich. Expectations||65.7||—||66||—|
|10/13/23||U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation||3.20%||—||3.20%||—|
|10/13/23||U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation||2.80%||—||2.80%||—|
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