October 12, 2023 Headlines

September CPI came in higher than expected at +0.4% vs +0.3% forecasted, the print has sent yields higher with 2-year back above 5% at 5.07%. Shelter costs were the main driver of the increase, accounting for half of the move, gas prices were also a major contributor. Primary rents were up 0.49% and owners’ equivalent rent increased by 0.56%. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy costs, was 0.3% last month, right in line with expectations.

Initial jobless claims came in slightly lower than expected at 209,000 vs 210,000. Last week’s claims number was a small uptick from the week prior at 207,000. Overall, the labor market continues to hum along which is boosting consumer demand and prices.

Hafizan Hamzah
Senior Director, Investment Management Group

Date	Event	Surv(M)	Actual	Prior	Revised
10/12/23	CPI MoM	0.30%	0.40%	0.60%	—
10/12/23	CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM	0.30%	0.30%	0.30%	—
10/12/23	CPI YoY	3.60%	3.70%	3.70%	—
10/12/23	CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY	4.10%	4.10%	4.30%	—
10/12/23	CPI Index NSA	307.45	307.789	307.026	—
10/12/23	CPI Core Index SA	310.604	310.661	309.661	—
10/12/23	Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY	—	0.50%	0.50%	—
10/12/23	Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY	—	-0.10%	0.30%	0.20%
10/12/23	Initial Jobless Claims	210k	209k	207k	209k
10/12/23	Continuing Claims	1675k	1702k	1664k	1672k
10/12/23	Monthly Budget Statement	-$146.0b	—	-$429.8b	—
10/13/23	Import Price Index MoM	0.50%	—	0.50%	—
10/13/23	Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM	-0.10%	—	0.00%	—
10/13/23	Import Price Index YoY	-1.40%	—	-3.00%	—
10/13/23	Export Price Index MoM	0.50%	—	1.30%	—
10/13/23	Export Price Index YoY	-4.00%	—	-5.50%	—
10/13/23	U. of Mich. Sentiment	67	—	68.1	—
10/13/23	U. of Mich. Current Conditions	70.3	—	71.4	—
10/13/23	U. of Mich. Expectations	65.7	—	66	—
10/13/23	U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation	3.20%	—	3.20%	—
10/13/23	U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation	2.80%	—	2.80%	—

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