October 12, 2023 Headlines

September CPI came in higher than expected at +0.4% vs +0.3% forecasted, the print has sent yields higher with 2-year back above 5% at 5.07%. Shelter costs were the main driver of the increase, accounting for half of the move, gas prices were also a major contributor. Primary rents were up 0.49% and owners’ equivalent rent increased by 0.56%. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy costs, was 0.3% last month, right in line with expectations.

Initial jobless claims came in slightly lower than expected at 209,000 vs 210,000. Last week’s claims number was a small uptick from the week prior at 207,000. Overall, the labor market continues to hum along which is boosting consumer demand and prices.

Hafizan Hamzah
Senior Director, Investment Management Group

10/12/23CPI MoM0.30%0.40%0.60%
10/12/23CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.30%0.30%0.30%
10/12/23CPI YoY3.60%3.70%3.70%
10/12/23CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY4.10%4.10%4.30%
10/12/23CPI Index NSA307.45307.789307.026
10/12/23CPI Core Index SA310.604310.661309.661
10/12/23Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY0.50%0.50%
10/12/23Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY-0.10%0.30%0.20%
10/12/23Initial Jobless Claims210k209k207k209k
10/12/23Continuing Claims1675k1702k1664k1672k
10/12/23Monthly Budget Statement-$146.0b-$429.8b
10/13/23Import Price Index MoM0.50%0.50%
10/13/23Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM-0.10%0.00%
10/13/23Import Price Index YoY-1.40%-3.00%
10/13/23Export Price Index MoM0.50%1.30%
10/13/23Export Price Index YoY-4.00%-5.50%
10/13/23U. of Mich. Sentiment6768.1
10/13/23U. of Mich. Current Conditions70.371.4
10/13/23U. of Mich. Expectations65.766
10/13/23U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation3.20%3.20%
10/13/23U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.80%2.80%

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