Treasury prices are lower this morning following a rebound in US equities (SPX +.9%) after a six-day losing streak. Strong trade data out of China lead the fast-break as exports improved and imports remained healthy despite trade war headlines. Early 3Q earnings have confirmed the trend in global PMI that input costs are rising which has started to compress corporate profit margins. For today’s economic releases, the Import Price Index reported a MoM change of .5% compared to .2% surveyed. Later today, FOMC members Evans and Bostic will also speak on the economy. Next week’s economic headlines will feature retail sales, housing starts and a 30-year TIPs reopening.
Chris Eckhoff
Associate, Investment Management Group
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior |
| 10/09 | NFIB Small Business Optimism | 108.3 | 107.9 | 108.8 |
| 10/10 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | -1.70% | 0.00% |
| 10/10 | PPI Final Demand MoM | 0.20% | 0.20% | -0.10% |
| 10/10 | PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.20% | 0.20% | -0.10% |
| 10/10 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM | 0.20% | 0.40% | 0.10% |
| 10/10 | PPI Final Demand YoY | 2.70% | 2.60% | 2.80% |
| 10/10 | PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 2.50% | 2.50% | 2.30% |
| 10/10 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY | — | 2.90% | 2.90% |
| 10/10 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.80% | 1.00% | 0.80% |
| 10/10 | Wholesale Trade Sales MoM | 0.50% | 0.80% | 0.00% |
| 10/11 | CPI MoM | 0.20% | 0.10% | 0.20% |
| 10/11 | CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.20% | 0.10% | 0.10% |
| 10/11 | CPI YoY | 2.40% | 2.30% | 2.70% |
| 10/11 | CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 2.30% | 2.20% | 2.20% |
| 10/11 | CPI Index NSA | 252.697 | 252.439 | 252.146 |
| 10/11 | CPI Core Index SA | 258.629 | 258.441 | 258.141 |
| 10/11 | Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY | — | 1.10% | 0.50% |
| 10/11 | Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY | — | 0.50% | 0.20% |
| 10/11 | Initial Jobless Claims | 207k | 214k | 207k |
| 10/11 | Continuing Claims | 1660k | 1660k | 1650k |
| 10/11 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | 59.5 | 61.6 |
| 10/11 | Bloomberg Oct. United States Economic Survey (Table) | |||
| 10/12 | Import Price Index MoM | 0.20% | 0.50% | -0.60% |
| 10/12 | Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM | -0.10% | 0.00% | -0.20% |
| 10/12 | Import Price Index YoY | 3.10% | 3.50% | 3.70% |
| 10/12 | Export Price Index MoM | 0.20% | 0.00% | -0.10% |
| 10/12 | Export Price Index YoY | 2.90% | 2.70% | 3.60% |
| 10/12 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 100.5 | — | 100.1 |
| 10/12 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | — | — | 115.2 |
| 10/12 | U. of Mich. Expectations | — | — | 90.5 |
| 10/12 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.70% |
| 10/12 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.50% |