Treasury prices are lower this morning following a rebound in US equities (SPX +.9%) after a six-day losing streak. Strong trade data out of China lead the fast-break as exports improved and imports remained healthy despite trade war headlines. Early 3Q earnings have confirmed the trend in global PMI that input costs are rising which has started to compress corporate profit margins. For today’s economic releases, the Import Price Index reported a MoM change of .5% compared to .2% surveyed. Later today, FOMC members Evans and Bostic will also speak on the economy. Next week’s economic headlines will feature retail sales, housing starts and a 30-year TIPs reopening.

Chris Eckhoff
Associate, Investment Management Group

10/09NFIB Small Business Optimism108.3107.9108.8
10/10MBA Mortgage Applications-1.70%0.00%
10/10PPI Final Demand MoM0.20%0.20%-0.10%
10/10PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.20%-0.10%
10/10PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.20%0.40%0.10%
10/10PPI Final Demand YoY2.70%2.60%2.80%
10/10PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.50%2.50%2.30%
10/10PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY2.90%2.90%
10/10Wholesale Inventories MoM0.80%1.00%0.80%
10/10Wholesale Trade Sales MoM0.50%0.80%0.00%
10/11CPI MoM0.20%0.10%0.20%
10/11CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.10%0.10%
10/11CPI YoY2.40%2.30%2.70%
10/11CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.30%2.20%2.20%
10/11CPI Index NSA252.697252.439252.146
10/11CPI Core Index SA258.629258.441258.141
10/11Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY1.10%0.50%
10/11Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY0.50%0.20%
10/11Initial Jobless Claims207k214k207k
10/11Continuing Claims1660k1660k1650k
10/11Bloomberg Consumer Comfort59.561.6
10/11Bloomberg Oct. United States Economic Survey (Table)
10/12Import Price Index MoM0.20%0.50%-0.60%
10/12Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM-0.10%0.00%-0.20%
10/12Import Price Index YoY3.10%3.50%3.70%
10/12Export Price Index MoM0.20%0.00%-0.10%
10/12Export Price Index YoY2.90%2.70%3.60%
10/12U. of Mich. Sentiment100.5100.1
10/12U. of Mich. Current Conditions115.2
10/12U. of Mich. Expectations90.5
10/12U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.70%
10/12U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.50%