Treasury prices are lower this morning following a rebound in US equities (SPX +.9%) after a six-day losing streak. Strong trade data out of China lead the fast-break as exports improved and imports remained healthy despite trade war headlines. Early 3Q earnings have confirmed the trend in global PMI that input costs are rising which has started to compress corporate profit margins. For today’s economic releases, the Import Price Index reported a MoM change of .5% compared to .2% surveyed. Later today, FOMC members Evans and Bostic will also speak on the economy. Next week’s economic headlines will feature retail sales, housing starts and a 30-year TIPs reopening.

Chris Eckhoff
Associate, Investment Management Group

Date Event Survey Actual Prior
10/09 NFIB Small Business Optimism 108.3 107.9 108.8
10/10 MBA Mortgage Applications -1.70% 0.00%
10/10 PPI Final Demand MoM 0.20% 0.20% -0.10%
10/10 PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM 0.20% 0.20% -0.10%
10/10 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM 0.20% 0.40% 0.10%
10/10 PPI Final Demand YoY 2.70% 2.60% 2.80%
10/10 PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 2.50% 2.50% 2.30%
10/10 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY 2.90% 2.90%
10/10 Wholesale Inventories MoM 0.80% 1.00% 0.80%
10/10 Wholesale Trade Sales MoM 0.50% 0.80% 0.00%
10/11 CPI MoM 0.20% 0.10% 0.20%
10/11 CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM 0.20% 0.10% 0.10%
10/11 CPI YoY 2.40% 2.30% 2.70%
10/11 CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 2.30% 2.20% 2.20%
10/11 CPI Index NSA 252.697 252.439 252.146
10/11 CPI Core Index SA 258.629 258.441 258.141
10/11 Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY 1.10% 0.50%
10/11 Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY 0.50% 0.20%
10/11 Initial Jobless Claims 207k 214k 207k
10/11 Continuing Claims 1660k 1660k 1650k
10/11 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 59.5 61.6
10/11 Bloomberg Oct. United States Economic Survey (Table)
10/12 Import Price Index MoM 0.20% 0.50% -0.60%
10/12 Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM -0.10% 0.00% -0.20%
10/12 Import Price Index YoY 3.10% 3.50% 3.70%
10/12 Export Price Index MoM 0.20% 0.00% -0.10%
10/12 Export Price Index YoY 2.90% 2.70% 3.60%
10/12 U. of Mich. Sentiment 100.5 100.1
10/12 U. of Mich. Current Conditions 115.2
10/12 U. of Mich. Expectations 90.5
10/12 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation 2.70%
10/12 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation 2.50%