Treasury prices are higher this morning with the curve 2 to 3 bps higher. Headline CPI increased by 0.5% for the same reason that PPI did, Hurricane Harvey. The disruption of gas production pushed energy prices higher. Core CPI, excludes food and energy, increased 0.1% month over month and 1.7% year over year; both readings came in lower than expected. These lower than expected inflation numbers for September could give the Fed some reticence as to whether or not to raise rates at their December meeting.

Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group

10/10/2017NFIB Small Business Optimism105103105.3
10/11/2017MBA Mortgage Applications-2.10%-0.40%
10/11/2017JOLTS Job Openings612560826170
10/11/2017FOMC Meeting Minutes
10/12/2017PPI Final Demand MoM0.40%0.40%0.20%
10/12/2017PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.40%0.10%
10/12/2017PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.20%0.20%0.20%
10/12/2017PPI Final Demand YoY2.60%2.60%2.40%
10/12/2017PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.00%2.20%2.00%
10/12/2017PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY2.10%1.90%
10/12/2017Initial Jobless Claims250k243k260k
10/12/2017Continuing Claims1930k1889k1938k
10/12/2017Bloomberg Consumer Comfort49.549.9
10/13/2017CPI MoM0.60%0.50%0.40%
10/13/2017CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.10%0.20%
10/13/2017CPI YoY2.30%2.20%1.90%
10/13/2017CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY1.80%1.70%1.70%
10/13/2017CPI Core Index SA253.059252.86252.54
10/13/2017CPI Index NSA246.911246.819245.519
10/13/2017Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY0.60%0.90%
10/13/2017Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY0.70%0.60%
10/13/2017Retail Sales Advance MoM1.70%1.60%-0.20%
10/13/2017Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.90%1.00%0.20%
10/13/2017Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.40%0.50%-0.10%
10/13/2017Retail Sales Control Group0.40%0.40%-0.20%
10/13/2017U. of Mich. Sentiment9595.1
10/13/2017U. of Mich. Current Conditions111.6111.7
10/13/2017U. of Mich. Expectations85.384.4
10/13/2017U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.70%
10/13/2017U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.50%
10/13/2017Business Inventories0.70%0.20%
10/13/2017Monthly Budget Statement$6.0b$33.4b