Treasury prices are higher this morning with the curve 2 to 3 bps higher. Headline CPI increased by 0.5% for the same reason that PPI did, Hurricane Harvey. The disruption of gas production pushed energy prices higher. Core CPI, excludes food and energy, increased 0.1% month over month and 1.7% year over year; both readings came in lower than expected. These lower than expected inflation numbers for September could give the Fed some reticence as to whether or not to raise rates at their December meeting.
Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior |
| 10/10/2017 | NFIB Small Business Optimism | 105 | 103 | 105.3 |
| 10/11/2017 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | -2.10% | -0.40% |
| 10/11/2017 | JOLTS Job Openings | 6125 | 6082 | 6170 |
| 10/11/2017 | FOMC Meeting Minutes | — | — | — |
| 10/12/2017 | PPI Final Demand MoM | 0.40% | 0.40% | 0.20% |
| 10/12/2017 | PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.20% | 0.40% | 0.10% |
| 10/12/2017 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM | 0.20% | 0.20% | 0.20% |
| 10/12/2017 | PPI Final Demand YoY | 2.60% | 2.60% | 2.40% |
| 10/12/2017 | PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 2.00% | 2.20% | 2.00% |
| 10/12/2017 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY | — | 2.10% | 1.90% |
| 10/12/2017 | Initial Jobless Claims | 250k | 243k | 260k |
| 10/12/2017 | Continuing Claims | 1930k | 1889k | 1938k |
| 10/12/2017 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | 49.5 | 49.9 |
| 10/13/2017 | CPI MoM | 0.60% | 0.50% | 0.40% |
| 10/13/2017 | CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.20% | 0.10% | 0.20% |
| 10/13/2017 | CPI YoY | 2.30% | 2.20% | 1.90% |
| 10/13/2017 | CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 1.80% | 1.70% | 1.70% |
| 10/13/2017 | CPI Core Index SA | 253.059 | 252.86 | 252.54 |
| 10/13/2017 | CPI Index NSA | 246.911 | 246.819 | 245.519 |
| 10/13/2017 | Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY | — | 0.60% | 0.90% |
| 10/13/2017 | Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY | — | 0.70% | 0.60% |
| 10/13/2017 | Retail Sales Advance MoM | 1.70% | 1.60% | -0.20% |
| 10/13/2017 | Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM | 0.90% | 1.00% | 0.20% |
| 10/13/2017 | Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas | 0.40% | 0.50% | -0.10% |
| 10/13/2017 | Retail Sales Control Group | 0.40% | 0.40% | -0.20% |
| 10/13/2017 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 95 | — | 95.1 |
| 10/13/2017 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | 111.6 | — | 111.7 |
| 10/13/2017 | U. of Mich. Expectations | 85.3 | — | 84.4 |
| 10/13/2017 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.70% |
| 10/13/2017 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.50% |
| 10/13/2017 | Business Inventories | 0.70% | — | 0.20% |
| 10/13/2017 | Monthly Budget Statement | $6.0b | — | $33.4b |