October 13, 2021 Headlines

Headline CPI growth was just above expectations in September at +0.4% m/m, boosted by higher energy and food costs. Excluding those categories, growth in the core index was in line with expectations at +0.2% m/m. On a year-over-year basis, headline and core CPI were up 5.4% and 4%, respectively. In a continuation of yesterday’s trading activity, the Treasury curve was bull flattening again this morning prior to the CPI report in anticipation of an upside surprise, which would further fuel the perception that the Fed may be behind the curve on managing inflation risks. In the initial reaction to the actual numbers, long-end Treasuries have given back much of those overnight gains.

The minutes of the September 22 FOMC will be released this afternoon, perhaps providing more transparency into the inflation debate at the Fed. The updated Summary of Economic Projections revealed a 9-9 split on the number of participants forecasting the need for a 2022 rate hike, but not all those projections are from voting FOMC members. In other Fed news, Randall Quarles’ 4-year term as vice chair for bank supervision expires today, and the White House has yet to name a new head for the committee responsible for banking oversight. Quarles still has 10 years remaining in his term of board governor.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

10/12/21NFIB Small Business Optimism99.599.1100.1
10/12/21JOLTS Job Openings10954k10439k10934k11098k
10/13/21MBA Mortgage Applications0.20%-6.90%
10/13/21CPI MoM0.30%0.40%0.30%
10/13/21CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.20%0.10%
10/13/21CPI YoY5.30%5.40%5.30%
10/13/21CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY4.00%4.00%4.00%
10/13/21CPI Index NSA274.172274.31273.567
10/13/21CPI Core Index SA280.008280.017279.338
10/13/21Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY-0.80%-0.90%-1.10%
10/13/21Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY-0.80%-0.90%-1.40%
10/13/21FOMC Meeting Minutes
10/14/21Initial Jobless Claims320k326k
10/14/21Continuing Claims2670k2714k
10/14/21PPI Final Demand MoM0.60%0.70%
10/14/21PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.50%0.60%
10/14/21PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.40%0.30%
10/14/21PPI Final Demand YoY8.70%8.30%
10/14/21PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY7.10%6.70%
10/14/21PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY6.50%6.30%
10/14/21Langer Consumer Comfort53.4
10/15/21Empire Manufacturing2534.3
10/15/21Retail Sales Advance MoM-0.20%0.70%
10/15/21Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.50%1.80%
10/15/21Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.40%2.00%
10/15/21Retail Sales Control Group0.50%2.50%
10/15/21Import Price Index MoM0.60%-0.30%
10/15/21Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.20%-0.10%
10/15/21Import Price Index YoY9.40%9.00%
10/15/21Export Price Index MoM0.70%0.40%
10/15/21Export Price Index YoY16.80%
10/15/21Bloomberg Oct. United States Economic Survey
10/15/21Business Inventories0.60%0.50%
10/15/21U. of Mich. Sentiment7372.8
10/15/21U. of Mich. Current Conditions81.380.1
10/15/21U. of Mich. Expectations69.168.1
10/15/21U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation4.70%4.60%
10/15/21U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation3.00%


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