October 13, 2021 Headlines

Headline CPI growth was just above expectations in September at +0.4% m/m, boosted by higher energy and food costs. Excluding those categories, growth in the core index was in line with expectations at +0.2% m/m. On a year-over-year basis, headline and core CPI were up 5.4% and 4%, respectively. In a continuation of yesterday’s trading activity, the Treasury curve was bull flattening again this morning prior to the CPI report in anticipation of an upside surprise, which would further fuel the perception that the Fed may be behind the curve on managing inflation risks. In the initial reaction to the actual numbers, long-end Treasuries have given back much of those overnight gains.

The minutes of the September 22 FOMC will be released this afternoon, perhaps providing more transparency into the inflation debate at the Fed. The updated Summary of Economic Projections revealed a 9-9 split on the number of participants forecasting the need for a 2022 rate hike, but not all those projections are from voting FOMC members. In other Fed news, Randall Quarles’ 4-year term as vice chair for bank supervision expires today, and the White House has yet to name a new head for the committee responsible for banking oversight. Quarles still has 10 years remaining in his term of board governor.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date	Event	Surv(M)	Actual	Prior	Revised
10/12/21	NFIB Small Business Optimism	99.5	99.1	100.1	—
10/12/21	JOLTS Job Openings	10954k	10439k	10934k	11098k
10/13/21	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	0.20%	-6.90%	—
10/13/21	CPI MoM	0.30%	0.40%	0.30%	—
10/13/21	CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM	0.20%	0.20%	0.10%	—
10/13/21	CPI YoY	5.30%	5.40%	5.30%	—
10/13/21	CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY	4.00%	4.00%	4.00%	—
10/13/21	CPI Index NSA	274.172	274.31	273.567	—
10/13/21	CPI Core Index SA	280.008	280.017	279.338	—
10/13/21	Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY	—	-0.80%	-0.90%	-1.10%
10/13/21	Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY	—	-0.80%	-0.90%	-1.40%
10/13/21	FOMC Meeting Minutes	—	—	—	—
10/14/21	Initial Jobless Claims	320k	—	326k	—
10/14/21	Continuing Claims	2670k	—	2714k	—
10/14/21	PPI Final Demand MoM	0.60%	—	0.70%	—
10/14/21	PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM	0.50%	—	0.60%	—
10/14/21	PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM	0.40%	—	0.30%	—
10/14/21	PPI Final Demand YoY	8.70%	—	8.30%	—
10/14/21	PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY	7.10%	—	6.70%	—
10/14/21	PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY	6.50%	—	6.30%	—
10/14/21	Langer Consumer Comfort	—	—	53.4	—
10/15/21	Empire Manufacturing	25	—	34.3	—
10/15/21	Retail Sales Advance MoM	-0.20%	—	0.70%	—
10/15/21	Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM	0.50%	—	1.80%	—
10/15/21	Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas	0.40%	—	2.00%	—
10/15/21	Retail Sales Control Group	0.50%	—	2.50%	—
10/15/21	Import Price Index MoM	0.60%	—	-0.30%	—
10/15/21	Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM	0.20%	—	-0.10%	—
10/15/21	Import Price Index YoY	9.40%	—	9.00%	—
10/15/21	Export Price Index MoM	0.70%	—	0.40%	—
10/15/21	Export Price Index YoY	—	—	16.80%	—
10/15/21	Bloomberg Oct. United States Economic Survey
10/15/21	Business Inventories	0.60%	—	0.50%	—
10/15/21	U. of Mich. Sentiment	73	—	72.8	—
10/15/21	U. of Mich. Current Conditions	81.3	—	80.1	—
10/15/21	U. of Mich. Expectations	69.1	—	68.1	—
10/15/21	U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation	4.70%	—	4.60%	—
10/15/21	U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation	—	—	3.00%	—

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