General concerns of a broader conflict in the Middle East are fueling a risk-off trade this morning, sending oil prices up more than 4% and Treasury yields 4-9 basis points lower. In China, CPI was unchanged in September and flirting with deflationary territory, and the Chinese financial sector authorities have proposed a new stock market stabilization fund to boost investor confidence according to a Financial Times article. The country’s demographics continue to shift as well, with new reports showing the number of births falling a record 10% in 2022 to 9.56 million, the lowest since records began in 1949 according to Reuters. In the U.S., Fed Chair Powell has scheduled a new speech before the Economic Club of New York on October 19, just before the blackout period begins ahead of the November 1 FOMC meeting.
Chief Investment Officer
|10/13/23||Import Price Index MoM||0.50%||0.10%||0.50%||0.60%|
|10/13/23||Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM||-0.10%||-0.30%||0.00%||-0.10%|
|10/13/23||Import Price Index YoY||-1.40%||-1.70%||-3.00%||-2.90%|
|10/13/23||Export Price Index MoM||0.50%||0.70%||1.30%||1.10%|
|10/13/23||Export Price Index YoY||-4.00%||-4.10%||-5.50%||-5.70%|
|10/13/23||U. of Mich. Sentiment||67||—||68.1||—|
|10/13/23||U. of Mich. Current Conditions||70.3||—||71.4||—|
|10/13/23||U. of Mich. Expectations||65.7||—||66||—|
|10/13/23||U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation||3.20%||—||3.20%||—|
|10/13/23||U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation||2.80%||—||2.80%||—|
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