October 13, 2023 Headlines

General concerns of a broader conflict in the Middle East are fueling a risk-off trade this morning, sending oil prices up more than 4% and Treasury yields 4-9 basis points lower. In China, CPI was unchanged in September and flirting with deflationary territory, and the Chinese financial sector authorities have proposed a new stock market stabilization fund to boost investor confidence according to a Financial Times article. The country’s demographics continue to shift as well, with new reports showing the number of births falling a record 10% in 2022 to 9.56 million, the lowest since records began in 1949 according to Reuters. In the U.S., Fed Chair Powell has scheduled a new speech before the Economic Club of New York on October 19, just before the blackout period begins ahead of the November 1 FOMC meeting.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date	Event	Surv(M)	Actual	Prior	Revised
10/13/23	Import Price Index MoM	0.50%	0.10%	0.50%	0.60%
10/13/23	Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM	-0.10%	-0.30%	0.00%	-0.10%
10/13/23	Import Price Index YoY	-1.40%	-1.70%	-3.00%	-2.90%
10/13/23	Export Price Index MoM	0.50%	0.70%	1.30%	1.10%
10/13/23	Export Price Index YoY	-4.00%	-4.10%	-5.50%	-5.70%
10/13/23	U. of Mich. Sentiment	67	—	68.1	—
10/13/23	U. of Mich. Current Conditions	70.3	—	71.4	—
10/13/23	U. of Mich. Expectations	65.7	—	66	—
10/13/23	U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation	3.20%	—	3.20%	—
10/13/23	U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation	2.80%	—	2.80%	—

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