October 14, 2020 Headlines

The US Treasury curve bull-flattened overnight as Brexit talks remain stalled ahead of the upcoming summit and European countries continue to talk about implementing new lockdowns. In the US, additional stimulus measures are at an impasse with the Senate planning on voting through a targeted $500 billion relief bill next week while the House of Representatives focus on a comprehensive $2.2 trillion package. There are four Federal Reserve speakers on the schedule for today and all are expected to mirror San Francisco Fed President Daly’s recent comments that the US economy is “well positioned to weather this storm we are in, and it remains to be seen if more will be needed”.

Chris Eckhoff
Associate, Investment Management Group

10/13/20NFIB Small Business Optimism100.9104100.2
10/13/20CPI MoM0.20%0.20%0.40%
10/13/20CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.20%0.40%
10/13/20CPI YoY1.40%1.40%1.30%
10/13/20CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY1.70%1.70%1.70%
10/13/20CPI Index NSA260.327260.28259.92
10/13/20CPI Core Index SA269.341269.26268.75
10/13/20Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY4.10%3.90%3.80%
10/13/20Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY3.30%3.30%3.20%
10/14/20MBA Mortgage Applications-0.70%4.60%
10/14/20PPI Final Demand MoM0.20%0.40%0.30%
10/14/20PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.40%0.40%
10/14/20PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.20%0.40%0.30%
10/14/20PPI Final Demand YoY0.20%0.40%-0.20%
10/14/20PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY1.00%1.20%0.60%
10/14/20PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY0.50%0.70%0.30%
10/14/20Monthly Budget Statement-$124.0b$82.8b
10/15/20Empire Manufacturing1417
10/15/20Initial Jobless Claims825k840k
10/15/20Continuing Claims10550k10976k
10/15/20Import Price Index MoM0.30%0.90%
10/15/20Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.50%0.70%
10/15/20Import Price Index YoY-1.20%-1.40%
10/15/20Export Price Index MoM0.30%0.50%
10/15/20Export Price Index YoY-2.80%
10/15/20Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook14.515
10/15/20Bloomberg Consumer Comfort48
10/16/20Retail Sales Advance MoM0.80%0.60%
10/16/20Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.40%0.70%
10/16/20Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.50%0.70%
10/16/20Retail Sales Control Group0.30%-0.10%
10/16/20Industrial Production MoM0.60%0.40%
10/16/20Capacity Utilization71.80%71.40%
10/16/20Manufacturing (SIC) Production0.60%1.00%
10/16/20Business Inventories0.40%0.10%
10/16/20U. of Mich. Sentiment80.580.4
10/16/20U. of Mich. Current Conditions88.587.8
10/16/20U. of Mich. Expectations7775.6
10/16/20U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.60%
10/16/20U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.70%
10/16/20Net Long-term TIC Flows$10.8b
10/16/20Total Net TIC Flows-$88.7b




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