October 14, 2021 Headlines

The belly of the curve is rallying this morning with 3yr to 5yr Treasuries 2 bps lower. Equity futures are up on the back of a better-than-expected jobless claims number and encouraging PPI numbers.

293,000 individuals filed for unemployment benefits last week, 27,000 lower than the median forecast, hitting a pandemic low. Continuing claims also fell, declining to 2.6 million from 2.73 million. PPI increased by 0.5% in September, a year-to-date low. Core PPI, which excludes food and energy costs, rose by 0.2%. Service costs increased a fairly tepid 0.2% due largely to a 17% drop in airline passenger services.

Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group

Date	Event	Surv(M)	Actual	Prior	Revised
10/12/21	NFIB Small Business Optimism	99.5	99.1	100.1	—
10/12/21	JOLTS Job Openings	10954k	10439k	10934k	11098k
10/13/21	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	0.20%	-6.90%	—
10/13/21	CPI MoM	0.30%	0.40%	0.30%	—
10/13/21	CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM	0.20%	0.20%	0.10%	—
10/13/21	CPI YoY	5.30%	5.40%	5.30%	—
10/13/21	CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY	4.00%	4.00%	4.00%	—
10/13/21	CPI Index NSA	274.172	274.31	273.567	—
10/13/21	CPI Core Index SA	280.008	280.017	279.338	—
10/13/21	Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY	—	-0.80%	-0.90%	-1.10%
10/13/21	Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY	—	-0.80%	-0.90%	-1.40%
10/13/21	FOMC Meeting Minutes	—	—	—	—
10/14/21	Initial Jobless Claims	320k	293k	326k	329k
10/14/21	Continuing Claims	2670k	2593k	2714k	2727k
10/14/21	PPI Final Demand MoM	0.60%	0.50%	0.70%	—
10/14/21	PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM	0.50%	0.20%	0.60%	—
10/14/21	PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM	0.40%	0.10%	0.30%	—
10/14/21	PPI Final Demand YoY	8.70%	8.60%	8.30%	—
10/14/21	PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY	7.10%	6.80%	6.70%	—
10/14/21	PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY	6.50%	5.90%	6.30%	—
10/14/21	Langer Consumer Comfort	—	—	53.4	—
10/15/21	Empire Manufacturing	25	—	34.3	—
10/15/21	Retail Sales Advance MoM	-0.20%	—	0.70%	—
10/15/21	Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM	0.50%	—	1.80%	—
10/15/21	Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas	0.40%	—	2.00%	—
10/15/21	Retail Sales Control Group	0.50%	—	2.50%	—
10/15/21	Import Price Index MoM	0.60%	—	-0.30%	—
10/15/21	Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM	0.20%	—	-0.10%	—
10/15/21	Import Price Index YoY	9.40%	—	9.00%	—
10/15/21	Export Price Index MoM	0.70%	—	0.40%	—
10/15/21	Export Price Index YoY	—	—	16.80%	—
10/15/21	Bloomberg Oct. United States Economic Survey
10/15/21	Business Inventories	0.60%	—	0.50%	—
10/15/21	U. of Mich. Sentiment	73	—	72.8	—
10/15/21	U. of Mich. Current Conditions	81.3	—	80.1	—
10/15/21	U. of Mich. Expectations	69.1	—	68.1	—
10/15/21	U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation	4.70%	—	4.60%	—
10/15/21	U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation	—	—	3.00%	—

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