October 14, 2021 Headlines

The belly of the curve is rallying this morning with 3yr to 5yr Treasuries 2 bps lower. Equity futures are up on the back of a better-than-expected jobless claims number and encouraging PPI numbers.

293,000 individuals filed for unemployment benefits last week, 27,000 lower than the median forecast, hitting a pandemic low. Continuing claims also fell, declining to 2.6 million from 2.73 million. PPI increased by 0.5% in September, a year-to-date low. Core PPI, which excludes food and energy costs, rose by 0.2%. Service costs increased a fairly tepid 0.2% due largely to a 17% drop in airline passenger services.

Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group

10/12/21NFIB Small Business Optimism99.599.1100.1
10/12/21JOLTS Job Openings10954k10439k10934k11098k
10/13/21MBA Mortgage Applications0.20%-6.90%
10/13/21CPI MoM0.30%0.40%0.30%
10/13/21CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.20%0.10%
10/13/21CPI YoY5.30%5.40%5.30%
10/13/21CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY4.00%4.00%4.00%
10/13/21CPI Index NSA274.172274.31273.567
10/13/21CPI Core Index SA280.008280.017279.338
10/13/21Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY-0.80%-0.90%-1.10%
10/13/21Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY-0.80%-0.90%-1.40%
10/13/21FOMC Meeting Minutes
10/14/21Initial Jobless Claims320k293k326k329k
10/14/21Continuing Claims2670k2593k2714k2727k
10/14/21PPI Final Demand MoM0.60%0.50%0.70%
10/14/21PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.50%0.20%0.60%
10/14/21PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.40%0.10%0.30%
10/14/21PPI Final Demand YoY8.70%8.60%8.30%
10/14/21PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY7.10%6.80%6.70%
10/14/21PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY6.50%5.90%6.30%
10/14/21Langer Consumer Comfort53.4
10/15/21Empire Manufacturing2534.3
10/15/21Retail Sales Advance MoM-0.20%0.70%
10/15/21Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.50%1.80%
10/15/21Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.40%2.00%
10/15/21Retail Sales Control Group0.50%2.50%
10/15/21Import Price Index MoM0.60%-0.30%
10/15/21Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.20%-0.10%
10/15/21Import Price Index YoY9.40%9.00%
10/15/21Export Price Index MoM0.70%0.40%
10/15/21Export Price Index YoY16.80%
10/15/21Bloomberg Oct. United States Economic Survey
10/15/21Business Inventories0.60%0.50%
10/15/21U. of Mich. Sentiment7372.8
10/15/21U. of Mich. Current Conditions81.380.1
10/15/21U. of Mich. Expectations69.168.1
10/15/21U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation4.70%4.60%
10/15/21U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation3.00%


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