October 15, 2020 Headlines

New Covid-related restrictions across Europe is sparking a broad risk-off trade in global markets and driving Treasury prices higher. Rising Covid cases in Europe have governments grappling with potential new targeted lockdowns, and risk markets continue to discount the probability of a new fiscal aid package in the U.S. Also making headlines this morning is an unexpected jump in initial jobless claims, but it’s important to acknowledge significant noise in the data series these days. For example, California has not been reporting claims in recent weeks while they investigate unusually high figures in their systems, so their last reported number has been used in the national figures. Continuing claims continue to fall, but when people exhaust their regular state claims, they are eligible to receive Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PEUC), a CARES Act program that extends state benefits by 13 weeks. Once someone shifts to PEUC, they drop from the regular continuing claims number. In other words, continuing claims may be falling, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that those people found employment. 

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
10/13/20NFIB Small Business Optimism100.9104100.2
10/13/20CPI MoM0.20%0.20%0.40%
10/13/20CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.20%0.40%
10/13/20CPI YoY1.40%1.40%1.30%
10/13/20CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY1.70%1.70%1.70%
10/13/20CPI Index NSA260.327260.28259.92
10/13/20CPI Core Index SA269.341269.26268.75
10/13/20Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY4.10%3.90%3.80%
10/13/20Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY3.30%3.30%3.20%
10/14/20MBA Mortgage Applications-0.70%4.60%
10/14/20PPI Final Demand MoM0.20%0.40%0.30%
10/14/20PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.40%0.40%
10/14/20PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.20%0.40%0.30%
10/14/20PPI Final Demand YoY0.20%0.40%-0.20%
10/14/20PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY1.00%1.20%0.60%
10/14/20PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY0.50%0.70%0.30%
10/15/20Empire Manufacturing1410.517
10/15/20Initial Jobless Claims825k898k840k845k
10/15/20Continuing Claims10550k10018k10976k11183k
10/15/20Import Price Index MoM0.30%0.30%0.90%1.00%
10/15/20Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.50%0.70%0.70%0.80%
10/15/20Import Price Index YoY-1.20%-1.10%-1.40%
10/15/20Export Price Index MoM0.30%0.60%0.50%
10/15/20Export Price Index YoY-1.80%-2.80%-2.70%
10/15/20Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook14.832.315
10/15/20Bloomberg Consumer Comfort48
10/15/20-10/20/20Monthly Budget Statement-$124.0b$82.8b
10/16/20Retail Sales Advance MoM0.80%0.60%
10/16/20Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.40%0.70%
10/16/20Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.50%0.70%
10/16/20Retail Sales Control Group0.30%-0.10%
10/16/20Industrial Production MoM0.60%0.40%
10/16/20Capacity Utilization71.80%71.40%
10/16/20Manufacturing (SIC) Production0.60%1.00%
10/16/20Business Inventories0.40%0.10%
10/16/20U. of Mich. Sentiment80.580.4
10/16/20U. of Mich. Current Conditions88.587.8
10/16/20U. of Mich. Expectations7775.6
10/16/20U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.60%
10/16/20U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.70%
10/16/20Net Long-term TIC Flows$10.8b
10/16/20Total Net TIC Flows-$88.7b

 

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