October 15, 2020 Headlines

New Covid-related restrictions across Europe is sparking a broad risk-off trade in global markets and driving Treasury prices higher. Rising Covid cases in Europe have governments grappling with potential new targeted lockdowns, and risk markets continue to discount the probability of a new fiscal aid package in the U.S. Also making headlines this morning is an unexpected jump in initial jobless claims, but it’s important to acknowledge significant noise in the data series these days. For example, California has not been reporting claims in recent weeks while they investigate unusually high figures in their systems, so their last reported number has been used in the national figures. Continuing claims continue to fall, but when people exhaust their regular state claims, they are eligible to receive Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PEUC), a CARES Act program that extends state benefits by 13 weeks. Once someone shifts to PEUC, they drop from the regular continuing claims number. In other words, continuing claims may be falling, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that those people found employment. 

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
10/13/20 NFIB Small Business Optimism 100.9 104 100.2
10/13/20 CPI MoM 0.20% 0.20% 0.40%
10/13/20 CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM 0.20% 0.20% 0.40%
10/13/20 CPI YoY 1.40% 1.40% 1.30%
10/13/20 CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 1.70% 1.70% 1.70%
10/13/20 CPI Index NSA 260.327 260.28 259.92
10/13/20 CPI Core Index SA 269.341 269.26 268.75
10/13/20 Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY 4.10% 3.90% 3.80%
10/13/20 Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY 3.30% 3.30% 3.20%
10/14/20 MBA Mortgage Applications -0.70% 4.60%
10/14/20 PPI Final Demand MoM 0.20% 0.40% 0.30%
10/14/20 PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM 0.20% 0.40% 0.40%
10/14/20 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM 0.20% 0.40% 0.30%
10/14/20 PPI Final Demand YoY 0.20% 0.40% -0.20%
10/14/20 PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 1.00% 1.20% 0.60%
10/14/20 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY 0.50% 0.70% 0.30%
10/15/20 Empire Manufacturing 14 10.5 17
10/15/20 Initial Jobless Claims 825k 898k 840k 845k
10/15/20 Continuing Claims 10550k 10018k 10976k 11183k
10/15/20 Import Price Index MoM 0.30% 0.30% 0.90% 1.00%
10/15/20 Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM 0.50% 0.70% 0.70% 0.80%
10/15/20 Import Price Index YoY -1.20% -1.10% -1.40%
10/15/20 Export Price Index MoM 0.30% 0.60% 0.50%
10/15/20 Export Price Index YoY -1.80% -2.80% -2.70%
10/15/20 Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook 14.8 32.3 15
10/15/20 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 48
10/15/20-10/20/20 Monthly Budget Statement -$124.0b $82.8b
10/16/20 Retail Sales Advance MoM 0.80% 0.60%
10/16/20 Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM 0.40% 0.70%
10/16/20 Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas 0.50% 0.70%
10/16/20 Retail Sales Control Group 0.30% -0.10%
10/16/20 Industrial Production MoM 0.60% 0.40%
10/16/20 Capacity Utilization 71.80% 71.40%
10/16/20 Manufacturing (SIC) Production 0.60% 1.00%
10/16/20 Business Inventories 0.40% 0.10%
10/16/20 U. of Mich. Sentiment 80.5 80.4
10/16/20 U. of Mich. Current Conditions 88.5 87.8
10/16/20 U. of Mich. Expectations 77 75.6
10/16/20 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation 2.60%
10/16/20 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation 2.70%
10/16/20 Net Long-term TIC Flows $10.8b
10/16/20 Total Net TIC Flows -$88.7b


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