October 15, 2021 Headlines

This week’s curve flattening trend in the Treasury market reversed somewhat overnight amid improved risk sentiment and anticipation of next week’s new supply. Long-end yields are up 3-4 basis points (bps) on the morning so far but still down 7-12 bps on the week. Rising rents are becoming a more popular topic in mainstream media. A New York Times article highlights stories of surging shelter prices across the country and questions the implications for overall inflation and Fed policy. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, one of the more hawkish Fed leaders this year and a voting member of the FOMC in 2022, will be discussing optimal monetary policy at an event later this morning. New York Fed President John Williams will be speaking at a separate event this afternoon.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

10/12/21NFIB Small Business Optimism99.599.1100.1
10/12/21JOLTS Job Openings10954k10439k10934k11098k
10/13/21MBA Mortgage Applications0.20%-6.90%
10/13/21CPI MoM0.30%0.40%0.30%
10/13/21CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.20%0.10%
10/13/21CPI YoY5.30%5.40%5.30%
10/13/21CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY4.00%4.00%4.00%
10/13/21CPI Index NSA274.172274.31273.567
10/13/21CPI Core Index SA280.008280.017279.338
10/13/21Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY-0.80%-0.90%-1.10%
10/13/21Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY-0.80%-0.90%-1.40%
10/13/21FOMC Meeting Minutes
10/14/21Initial Jobless Claims320k293k326k329k
10/14/21Continuing Claims2670k2593k2714k2727k
10/14/21PPI Final Demand MoM0.60%0.50%0.70%
10/14/21PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.50%0.20%0.60%
10/14/21PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.40%0.10%0.30%
10/14/21PPI Final Demand YoY8.70%8.60%8.30%
10/14/21PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY7.10%6.80%6.70%
10/14/21PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY6.50%5.90%6.30%
10/14/21Langer Consumer Comfort51.253.4
10/15/21Empire Manufacturing2519.834.3
10/15/21Retail Sales Advance MoM-0.20%0.70%0.70%0.90%
10/15/21Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.50%0.80%1.80%2.00%
10/15/21Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.40%0.70%2.00%2.10%
10/15/21Retail Sales Control Group0.50%0.80%2.50%2.60%
10/15/21Import Price Index MoM0.60%0.40%-0.30%
10/15/21Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.20%0.10%-0.10%
10/15/21Import Price Index YoY9.40%9.20%9.00%8.90%
10/15/21Export Price Index MoM0.70%0.10%0.40%
10/15/21Export Price Index YoY16.30%16.80%
10/15/21Bloomberg Oct. United States Economic Survey
10/15/21Business Inventories0.60%0.50%
10/15/21U. of Mich. Sentiment73.172.8
10/15/21U. of Mich. Current Conditions81.380.1
10/15/21U. of Mich. Expectations69.168.1
10/15/21U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation4.70%4.60%
10/15/21U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation3.00%


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