October 15, 2021 Headlines

This week’s curve flattening trend in the Treasury market reversed somewhat overnight amid improved risk sentiment and anticipation of next week’s new supply. Long-end yields are up 3-4 basis points (bps) on the morning so far but still down 7-12 bps on the week. Rising rents are becoming a more popular topic in mainstream media. A New York Times article highlights stories of surging shelter prices across the country and questions the implications for overall inflation and Fed policy. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, one of the more hawkish Fed leaders this year and a voting member of the FOMC in 2022, will be discussing optimal monetary policy at an event later this morning. New York Fed President John Williams will be speaking at a separate event this afternoon.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date	Event	Surv(M)	Actual	Prior	Revised
10/12/21	NFIB Small Business Optimism	99.5	99.1	100.1	—
10/12/21	JOLTS Job Openings	10954k	10439k	10934k	11098k
10/13/21	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	0.20%	-6.90%	—
10/13/21	CPI MoM	0.30%	0.40%	0.30%	—
10/13/21	CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM	0.20%	0.20%	0.10%	—
10/13/21	CPI YoY	5.30%	5.40%	5.30%	—
10/13/21	CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY	4.00%	4.00%	4.00%	—
10/13/21	CPI Index NSA	274.172	274.31	273.567	—
10/13/21	CPI Core Index SA	280.008	280.017	279.338	—
10/13/21	Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY	—	-0.80%	-0.90%	-1.10%
10/13/21	Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY	—	-0.80%	-0.90%	-1.40%
10/13/21	FOMC Meeting Minutes	—	—	—	—
10/14/21	Initial Jobless Claims	320k	293k	326k	329k
10/14/21	Continuing Claims	2670k	2593k	2714k	2727k
10/14/21	PPI Final Demand MoM	0.60%	0.50%	0.70%	—
10/14/21	PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM	0.50%	0.20%	0.60%	—
10/14/21	PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM	0.40%	0.10%	0.30%	—
10/14/21	PPI Final Demand YoY	8.70%	8.60%	8.30%	—
10/14/21	PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY	7.10%	6.80%	6.70%	—
10/14/21	PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY	6.50%	5.90%	6.30%	—
10/14/21	Langer Consumer Comfort	—	51.2	53.4	—
10/15/21	Empire Manufacturing	25	19.8	34.3	—
10/15/21	Retail Sales Advance MoM	-0.20%	0.70%	0.70%	0.90%
10/15/21	Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM	0.50%	0.80%	1.80%	2.00%
10/15/21	Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas	0.40%	0.70%	2.00%	2.10%
10/15/21	Retail Sales Control Group	0.50%	0.80%	2.50%	2.60%
10/15/21	Import Price Index MoM	0.60%	0.40%	-0.30%	—
10/15/21	Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM	0.20%	0.10%	-0.10%	—
10/15/21	Import Price Index YoY	9.40%	9.20%	9.00%	8.90%
10/15/21	Export Price Index MoM	0.70%	0.10%	0.40%	—
10/15/21	Export Price Index YoY	—	16.30%	16.80%	—
10/15/21	Bloomberg Oct. United States Economic Survey
10/15/21	Business Inventories	0.60%	—	0.50%	—
10/15/21	U. of Mich. Sentiment	73.1	—	72.8	—
10/15/21	U. of Mich. Current Conditions	81.3	—	80.1	—
10/15/21	U. of Mich. Expectations	69.1	—	68.1	—
10/15/21	U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation	4.70%	—	4.60%	—
10/15/21	U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation	—	—	3.00%	—

Subscribe Today!

Subscribe to our email list and get the latest articles and announcements from ALM First.

Recent Articles

December 1, 2023 Headlines November 30, 2023
November 30, 2023 Headlines November 29, 2023
November 29, 2023 Headlines November 29, 2023

ALM First offers investment advisory services through ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC, which is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC nor does it indicate that the firm has attained a particular level of skill or ability. The information contained herein does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation for you to purchase or sell any specific security. You are solely responsible for reviewing the content and for any actions you take or choose not to take based on your review of such content.Information contained herein was derived from third party sources as indicated. While such information is believed to be reliable, no representation or warranty is made concerning the accuracy of any information presented. We have not and will not independently verify this information. Where such sources include opinions and projections, such opinions and projections should be ascribed only to the applicable third party source and not to ALM First.Statements herein that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance are forward-looking statements. Such “forward-looking” statements are based on various assumptions, which assumptions may not prove to be correct. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that such assumptions and statements will accurately predict future events or actual performance. No representation or warranty can be given that the estimates, opinions or assumptions made herein will prove to be accurate. Any projections and forward-looking statements included herein should be considered speculative and are qualified in their entirety by the information and risks disclosed in the confidential offering document. Actual results for any period may or may not approximate such forward-looking statements. No representations or warranties whatsoever are made by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC or any other person or entity as to the future profitability of investments recommended by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC.