Treasury prices are drifting lower following better inflation data from China as well as somewhat hawkish comments from Janet Yellen late Friday afternoon. Yellen’s comments followed a disappointing September CPI report Friday morning (core prices below expectations again), and the Fed Chair reiterated that her “best guess” was that softer inflation readings “will not persist” amid stronger economic fundamentals. In other words, she feels the Fed is still on track for a December hike. A Bloomberg article says that ECB policymakers believe they have capacity to only add a little more than $235 billion of new purchases next year that are eligible for the current QE program, which would be at the lower end of potential volumes being discussed. The central bank is expected to reduce its purchase program this month, and available supply is just one of the reasons for the anticipated decision. Several Fed leaders are scheduled to speak this week, including Bill Dudley (Wednesday) and Janet Yellen (Friday).
Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior |
| 10/16 | Empire Manufacturing | 20.4 | 30.2 | 24.4 |
| 10/16-10/20 | Monthly Budget Statement | $6.0b | — | $33.4b |
| 10/17 | Import Price Index MoM | 0.60% | — | 0.60% |
| 10/17 | Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM | 0.10% | — | 0.30% |
| 10/17 | Import Price Index YoY | 2.60% | — | 2.10% |
| 10/17 | Export Price Index MoM | 0.50% | — | 0.60% |
| 10/17 | Export Price Index YoY | — | — | 2.30% |
| 10/17 | Industrial Production MoM | 0.30% | — | -0.90% |
| 10/17 | Capacity Utilization | 76.20% | — | 76.10% |
| 10/17 | Manufacturing (SIC) Production | 0.20% | — | -0.30% |
| 10/17 | NAHB Housing Market Index | 64 | — | 64 |
| 10/17 | Total Net TIC Flows | — | — | -$7.3b |
| 10/17 | Net Long-term TIC Flows | — | — | $1.3b |
| 10/18 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | -2.10% |
| 10/18 | Housing Starts | 1176k | — | 1180k |
| 10/18 | Housing Starts MoM | -0.40% | — | -0.80% |
| 10/18 | Building Permits | 1243k | — | 1300k |
| 10/18 | Building Permits MoM | -2.30% | — | 5.70% |
| 10/18 | U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book | |||
| 10/19 | Initial Jobless Claims | 240k | — | 243k |
| 10/19 | Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook | 22 | — | 23.8 |
| 10/19 | Continuing Claims | 1890k | — | 1889k |
| 10/19 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | — | 49.5 |
| 10/19 | Bloomberg Economic Expectations | — | — | 51.5 |
| 10/19 | Leading Index | 0.10% | — | 0.40% |
| 10/20 | Existing Home Sales | 5.30m | — | 5.35m |
| 10/20 | Existing Home Sales MoM | -0.90% | — | -1.70% |
| 10/23 | Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index | — | — | -0.31 |