October 16, 2020 Headlines

Treasury prices drifted higher overnight on continued concerns of rising Covid cases in Europe, but the market has reversed course this morning following a much better than expected retail sales report for September. Advance sales rose 1.9% over the month (0.8% expected), and excluding autos, sales were up 1.5% (0.4% expected). The September gains were broad based across categories, with autos, construction materials, and digital retailers leading the way. The retail sales control group, which is used in the GDP calculation, rose 1.4% in September (0.3% expected) and 39.9% quarter-over-quarter (annualized).

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
10/13/20 NFIB Small Business Optimism 100.9 104 100.2
10/13/20 CPI MoM 0.20% 0.20% 0.40%
10/13/20 CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM 0.20% 0.20% 0.40%
10/13/20 CPI YoY 1.40% 1.40% 1.30%
10/13/20 CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 1.70% 1.70% 1.70%
10/13/20 CPI Index NSA 260.327 260.28 259.92
10/13/20 CPI Core Index SA 269.341 269.26 268.75
10/13/20 Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY 4.10% 3.90% 3.80%
10/13/20 Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY 3.30% 3.30% 3.20%
10/14/20 MBA Mortgage Applications -0.70% 4.60%
10/14/20 PPI Final Demand MoM 0.20% 0.40% 0.30%
10/14/20 PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM 0.20% 0.40% 0.40%
10/14/20 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM 0.20% 0.40% 0.30%
10/14/20 PPI Final Demand YoY 0.20% 0.40% -0.20%
10/14/20 PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 1.00% 1.20% 0.60%
10/14/20 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY 0.50% 0.70% 0.30%
10/15/20 Empire Manufacturing 14 10.5 17
10/15/20 Initial Jobless Claims 825k 898k 840k 845k
10/15/20 Continuing Claims 10550k 10018k 10976k 11183k
10/15/20 Import Price Index MoM 0.30% 0.30% 0.90% 1.00%
10/15/20 Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM 0.50% 0.70% 0.70% 0.80%
10/15/20 Import Price Index YoY -1.20% -1.10% -1.40%
10/15/20 Export Price Index MoM 0.30% 0.60% 0.50%
10/15/20 Export Price Index YoY -1.80% -2.80% -2.70%
10/15/20 Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook 14.8 32.3 15
10/15/20 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 48.2 48
10/16/20 Retail Sales Advance MoM 0.80% 1.90% 0.60%
10/16/20 Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM 0.40% 1.50% 0.70% 0.50%
10/16/20 Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas 0.50% 1.50% 0.70% 0.50%
10/16/20 Retail Sales Control Group 0.30% 1.40% -0.10% -0.30%
10/16/20 Industrial Production MoM 0.50% -0.60% 0.40%
10/16/20 Capacity Utilization 71.80% 71.50% 71.40% 72.00%
10/16/20 Manufacturing (SIC) Production 0.60% -0.30% 1.00% 1.20%
10/16/20 Business Inventories 0.40% 0.10%
10/16/20 U. of Mich. Sentiment 80.5 80.4
10/16/20 U. of Mich. Current Conditions 88.5 87.8
10/16/20 U. of Mich. Expectations 77 75.6
10/16/20 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation 2.60%
10/16/20 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation 2.70%
10/16/20 Net Long-term TIC Flows $10.8b
10/16/20 Total Net TIC Flows -$88.7b
10/16/20-10/20/20 Monthly Budget Statement -$124.0b $82.8b

 

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