October 16, 2020 Headlines

Treasury prices drifted higher overnight on continued concerns of rising Covid cases in Europe, but the market has reversed course this morning following a much better than expected retail sales report for September. Advance sales rose 1.9% over the month (0.8% expected), and excluding autos, sales were up 1.5% (0.4% expected). The September gains were broad based across categories, with autos, construction materials, and digital retailers leading the way. The retail sales control group, which is used in the GDP calculation, rose 1.4% in September (0.3% expected) and 39.9% quarter-over-quarter (annualized).

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

10/13/20NFIB Small Business Optimism100.9104100.2
10/13/20CPI MoM0.20%0.20%0.40%
10/13/20CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.20%0.40%
10/13/20CPI YoY1.40%1.40%1.30%
10/13/20CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY1.70%1.70%1.70%
10/13/20CPI Index NSA260.327260.28259.92
10/13/20CPI Core Index SA269.341269.26268.75
10/13/20Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY4.10%3.90%3.80%
10/13/20Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY3.30%3.30%3.20%
10/14/20MBA Mortgage Applications-0.70%4.60%
10/14/20PPI Final Demand MoM0.20%0.40%0.30%
10/14/20PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.40%0.40%
10/14/20PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.20%0.40%0.30%
10/14/20PPI Final Demand YoY0.20%0.40%-0.20%
10/14/20PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY1.00%1.20%0.60%
10/14/20PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY0.50%0.70%0.30%
10/15/20Empire Manufacturing1410.517
10/15/20Initial Jobless Claims825k898k840k845k
10/15/20Continuing Claims10550k10018k10976k11183k
10/15/20Import Price Index MoM0.30%0.30%0.90%1.00%
10/15/20Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.50%0.70%0.70%0.80%
10/15/20Import Price Index YoY-1.20%-1.10%-1.40%
10/15/20Export Price Index MoM0.30%0.60%0.50%
10/15/20Export Price Index YoY-1.80%-2.80%-2.70%
10/15/20Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook14.832.315
10/15/20Bloomberg Consumer Comfort48.248
10/16/20Retail Sales Advance MoM0.80%1.90%0.60%
10/16/20Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.40%1.50%0.70%0.50%
10/16/20Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.50%1.50%0.70%0.50%
10/16/20Retail Sales Control Group0.30%1.40%-0.10%-0.30%
10/16/20Industrial Production MoM0.50%-0.60%0.40%
10/16/20Capacity Utilization71.80%71.50%71.40%72.00%
10/16/20Manufacturing (SIC) Production0.60%-0.30%1.00%1.20%
10/16/20Business Inventories0.40%0.10%
10/16/20U. of Mich. Sentiment80.580.4
10/16/20U. of Mich. Current Conditions88.587.8
10/16/20U. of Mich. Expectations7775.6
10/16/20U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.60%
10/16/20U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.70%
10/16/20Net Long-term TIC Flows$10.8b
10/16/20Total Net TIC Flows-$88.7b
10/16/20-10/20/20Monthly Budget Statement-$124.0b$82.8b


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