October 16, 2023 Headlines

Long-end Treasury yields are 6-9 basis points higher to start the week in a partial unwind of last week’s risk-off trade. This week’s calendar is headlined by an onslaught of Fedspeak, with 20 separate appearances by various leaders. Most notably, Fed Chair Powell made a late addition to the speaking calendar for Thursday, two days before the pre-FOMC blackout period begins. There is still much debate as to whether the Fed is done with rate hikes for this cycle, but perhaps the more pertinent issue is how long the policy rate holds near the current level. On the data front, September retail sales data will be released tomorrow.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
10/16/23Empire Manufacturing-6-4.61.9—
10/16/23Monthly Budget Statement-$166.0b—-$429.8b—
10/17/23Retail Sales Advance MoM0.30%—0.60%—
10/17/23Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.20%—0.60%—
10/17/23Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.10%—0.20%—
10/17/23Retail Sales Control Group-0.10%—0.10%—
10/17/23New York Fed Services Business Activity——-3—
10/17/23Industrial Production MoM0.00%—0.40%—
10/17/23Capacity Utilization79.60%—79.70%—
10/17/23Manufacturing (SIC) Production0.00%—0.10%—
10/17/23Business Inventories0.30%—0.00%—
10/17/23NAHB Housing Market Index44—45—
10/17/23Net Long-term TIC Flows——$8.8b—
10/17/23Total Net TIC Flows——$140.6b—
10/18/23MBA Mortgage Applications——0.60%—
10/18/23Building Permits1458k—1543k1541k
10/18/23Building Permits MoM-5.40%—6.90%6.80%
10/18/23Housing Starts1380k—1283k—
10/18/23Housing Starts MoM7.60%—-11.30%—
10/18/23Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
10/19/23Initial Jobless Claims212k—209k—
10/19/23Continuing Claims1700k—1702k—
10/19/23Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook-6.9—-13.5—
10/19/23Existing Home Sales3.88m—4.04m—
10/19/23Existing Home Sales MoM-4.00%—-0.70%—
10/19/23Leading Index-0.40%—-0.40%—
10/20/23Bloomberg Oct. United States Economic Survey
10/23/23Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index——-0.16—

Subscribe Today!

Subscribe to our email list and get the latest articles and announcements from ALM First.

Subscribe

Recent Articles

ALM First offers investment advisory services through ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC, which is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC nor does it indicate that the firm has attained a particular level of skill or ability. The information contained herein does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation for you to purchase or sell any specific security. You are solely responsible for reviewing the content and for any actions you take or choose not to take based on your review of such content.Information contained herein was derived from third party sources as indicated. While such information is believed to be reliable, no representation or warranty is made concerning the accuracy of any information presented. We have not and will not independently verify this information. Where such sources include opinions and projections, such opinions and projections should be ascribed only to the applicable third party source and not to ALM First.Statements herein that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance are forward-looking statements. Such “forward-looking” statements are based on various assumptions, which assumptions may not prove to be correct. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that such assumptions and statements will accurately predict future events or actual performance. No representation or warranty can be given that the estimates, opinions or assumptions made herein will prove to be accurate. Any projections and forward-looking statements included herein should be considered speculative and are qualified in their entirety by the information and risks disclosed in the confidential offering document. Actual results for any period may or may not approximate such forward-looking statements. No representations or warranties whatsoever are made by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC or any other person or entity as to the future profitability of investments recommended by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC.