Treasury prices were slightly lower overnight on below-average trading volumes, and reports that Trump had a good meeting with John Taylor regarding his potential nomination for Fed Chair is contributing to the weakness. Taylor is perceived to be one of the most hawkish policymakers of those being considered. Janet Yellen’s current term as Fed Chair will expire in February, and President Trump will meet with her as well on Thursday. Asian equity markets were mixed overnight, and European markets are slightly higher at the moment. S&P 500 futures are essentially unchanged.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

DateEventSurv(M)ActualPrior
10/16Empire Manufacturing20.430.224.4
10/17Import Price Index MoM0.60%0.70%0.60%
10/17Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.20%0.30%0.30%
10/17Import Price Index YoY2.60%2.70%2.10%
10/17Export Price Index MoM0.50%0.80%0.60%
10/17Export Price Index YoY2.90%2.30%
10/17Industrial Production MoM0.30%0.30%-0.90%
10/17Capacity Utilization76.20%76.00%76.10%
10/17Manufacturing (SIC) Production0.20%0.10%-0.30%
10/17NAHB Housing Market Index646864
10/17Total Net TIC Flows-$7.3b
10/17Net Long-term TIC Flows$1.3b
10/17-10/20Monthly Budget Statement$6.0b$33.4b
10/18MBA Mortgage Applications-2.10%
10/18Housing Starts1175k1180k
10/18Housing Starts MoM-0.40%-0.80%
10/18Building Permits1245k1300k
10/18Building Permits MoM-2.10%5.70%
10/18U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
10/19Initial Jobless Claims240k243k
10/19Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook2223.8
10/19Continuing Claims1890k1889k
10/19Bloomberg Consumer Comfort49.5
10/19Bloomberg Economic Expectations51.5
10/19Leading Index0.10%0.40%
10/20Existing Home Sales5.30m5.35m
10/20Existing Home Sales MoM-0.90%-1.70%