October 18, 2017

by Jason Haley | Oct 18, 2017 | Beyond the Headlines

Treasuries sold off overnight with a flattening bias; the long end of the curve is up 4 bps while the front end is only up 2 bps, on the back of a rally in global equity markets. Additionally, the view that John Taylor and Kevin Warsh are the frontrunners for the Fed Chair position as both are considered to be hawks and would mark a significant change in Fed leadership. Indications have been that President Trump is planning to announce his pick prior to his November Asia trip.

Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group

Date	Event	Surv(M)	Actual	Prior
10/16	Empire Manufacturing	20.4	30.2	24.4
10/17	Import Price Index MoM	0.60%	0.70%	0.60%
10/17	Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM	0.20%	0.30%	0.30%
10/17	Import Price Index YoY	2.60%	2.70%	2.10%
10/17	Export Price Index MoM	0.50%	0.80%	0.60%
10/17	Export Price Index YoY	—	2.90%	2.30%
10/17	Industrial Production MoM	0.30%	0.30%	-0.90%
10/17	Capacity Utilization	76.20%	76.00%	76.10%
10/17	Manufacturing (SIC) Production	0.20%	0.10%	-0.30%
10/17	NAHB Housing Market Index	64	68	64
10/17	Total Net TIC Flows	—	$125.0b	-$7.3b
10/17	Net Long-term TIC Flows	—	$67.2b	$1.3b
10/18	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	3.60%	-2.10%
10/18	Housing Starts	1175k	1127k	1180k
10/18	Housing Starts MoM	-0.40%	-4.70%	-0.80%
10/18	Building Permits	1245k	1215k	1300k
10/18	Building Permits MoM	-2.10%	-4.50%	5.70%
10/18	U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
10/18-10/20	Monthly Budget Statement	$6.0b	—	$33.4b
10/19	Initial Jobless Claims	240k	—	243k
10/19	Continuing Claims	1890k	—	1889k
10/19	Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook	22	—	23.8
10/19	Bloomberg Consumer Comfort	—	—	49.5
10/19	Bloomberg Economic Expectations	—	—	51.5
10/19	Leading Index	0.10%	—	0.40%
10/20	Existing Home Sales	5.30m	—	5.35m
10/20	Existing Home Sales MoM	-0.90%	—	-1.70%

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