Treasuries sold off overnight with a flattening bias; the long end of the curve is up 4 bps while the front end is only up 2 bps, on the back of a rally in global equity markets. Additionally, the view that John Taylor and Kevin Warsh are the frontrunners for the Fed Chair position as both are considered to be hawks and would mark a significant change in Fed leadership. Indications have been that President Trump is planning to announce his pick prior to his November Asia trip.

Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group

DateEventSurv(M)ActualPrior
10/16Empire Manufacturing20.430.224.4
10/17Import Price Index MoM0.60%0.70%0.60%
10/17Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.20%0.30%0.30%
10/17Import Price Index YoY2.60%2.70%2.10%
10/17Export Price Index MoM0.50%0.80%0.60%
10/17Export Price Index YoY2.90%2.30%
10/17Industrial Production MoM0.30%0.30%-0.90%
10/17Capacity Utilization76.20%76.00%76.10%
10/17Manufacturing (SIC) Production0.20%0.10%-0.30%
10/17NAHB Housing Market Index646864
10/17Total Net TIC Flows$125.0b-$7.3b
10/17Net Long-term TIC Flows$67.2b$1.3b
10/18MBA Mortgage Applications3.60%-2.10%
10/18Housing Starts1175k1127k1180k
10/18Housing Starts MoM-0.40%-4.70%-0.80%
10/18Building Permits1245k1215k1300k
10/18Building Permits MoM-2.10%-4.50%5.70%
10/18U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book   
10/18-10/20Monthly Budget Statement$6.0b$33.4b
10/19Initial Jobless Claims240k243k
10/19Continuing Claims1890k1889k
10/19Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook2223.8
10/19Bloomberg Consumer Comfort49.5
10/19Bloomberg Economic Expectations51.5
10/19Leading Index0.10%0.40%
10/20Existing Home Sales5.30m5.35m
10/20Existing Home Sales MoM-0.90%-1.70%