October 18, 2021 Headlines

The October bear flattening trend for the Treasury curve ratcheted up overnight on fresh hawkish comments from ECB and BoE leaders. The 2-year note yield is at 0.44%, up from 0.22% just prior to the September 22 FOMC meeting, and the 5-year note yield touched 1.19% earlier this morning, up from 0.83% pre-FOMC. Short-term rate markets, including fed funds futures and OIS, are now pricing for a rate hike next summer, up from a Q4 event at the beginning of the month. This week’s economic calendar is relatively light, but market attention will remain focused on the inflation debate. There are several Fed leaders scheduled to speak this week, including Fed Chair Powell on Friday.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurv(M)ActualPriorRevised
10/18/21Industrial Production MoM0.10%0.40%
10/18/21Capacity Utilization76.40%76.40%
10/18/21Manufacturing (SIC) Production0.10%0.20%
10/18/21NAHB Housing Market Index7576
10/18/21Total Net TIC Flows$126.0b
10/18/21Net Long-term TIC Flows$2.0b
10/19/21Building Permits MoM-2.40%6.00%5.60%
10/19/21Building Permits1680k1728k1721k
10/19/21Housing Starts1615k1615k
10/19/21Housing Starts MoM0.00%3.90%
10/19/21-10/22/21Monthly Budget Statement-$59.0b-$124.6b
10/20/21MBA Mortgage Applications0.20%
10/20/21U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
10/21/21Initial Jobless Claims298k293k
10/21/21Continuing Claims2546k2593k
10/21/21Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook2530.7
10/21/21Langer Consumer Comfort51.2
10/21/21Leading Index0.40%0.90%
10/21/21Existing Home Sales6.09m5.88m
10/21/21Existing Home Sales MoM3.50%-2.00%
10/22/21Markit US Manufacturing PMI60.260.7
10/22/21Markit US Services PMI55.254.9
10/22/21Markit US Composite PMI55

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