October 18, 2021 Headlines

The October bear flattening trend for the Treasury curve ratcheted up overnight on fresh hawkish comments from ECB and BoE leaders. The 2-year note yield is at 0.44%, up from 0.22% just prior to the September 22 FOMC meeting, and the 5-year note yield touched 1.19% earlier this morning, up from 0.83% pre-FOMC. Short-term rate markets, including fed funds futures and OIS, are now pricing for a rate hike next summer, up from a Q4 event at the beginning of the month. This week’s economic calendar is relatively light, but market attention will remain focused on the inflation debate. There are several Fed leaders scheduled to speak this week, including Fed Chair Powell on Friday.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

10/18/21Industrial Production MoM0.10%0.40%
10/18/21Capacity Utilization76.40%76.40%
10/18/21Manufacturing (SIC) Production0.10%0.20%
10/18/21NAHB Housing Market Index7576
10/18/21Total Net TIC Flows$126.0b
10/18/21Net Long-term TIC Flows$2.0b
10/19/21Building Permits MoM-2.40%6.00%5.60%
10/19/21Building Permits1680k1728k1721k
10/19/21Housing Starts1615k1615k
10/19/21Housing Starts MoM0.00%3.90%
10/19/21-10/22/21Monthly Budget Statement-$59.0b-$124.6b
10/20/21MBA Mortgage Applications0.20%
10/20/21U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
10/21/21Initial Jobless Claims298k293k
10/21/21Continuing Claims2546k2593k
10/21/21Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook2530.7
10/21/21Langer Consumer Comfort51.2
10/21/21Leading Index0.40%0.90%
10/21/21Existing Home Sales6.09m5.88m
10/21/21Existing Home Sales MoM3.50%-2.00%
10/22/21Markit US Manufacturing PMI60.260.7
10/22/21Markit US Services PMI55.254.9
10/22/21Markit US Composite PMI55

Subscribe Today!

Subscribe to our email list and get the latest articles and announcements from ALM First.

Recent Articles

ALM First offers investment advisory services through ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC, which is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC nor does it indicate that the firm has attained a particular level of skill or ability. The information contained herein does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation for you to purchase or sell any specific security. You are solely responsible for reviewing the content and for any actions you take or choose not to take based on your review of such content.Information contained herein was derived from third party sources as indicated. While such information is believed to be reliable, no representation or warranty is made concerning the accuracy of any information presented. We have not and will not independently verify this information. Where such sources include opinions and projections, such opinions and projections should be ascribed only to the applicable third party source and not to ALM First.Statements herein that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance are forward-looking statements. Such “forward-looking” statements are based on various assumptions, which assumptions may not prove to be correct. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that such assumptions and statements will accurately predict future events or actual performance. No representation or warranty can be given that the estimates, opinions or assumptions made herein will prove to be accurate. Any projections and forward-looking statements included herein should be considered speculative and are qualified in their entirety by the information and risks disclosed in the confidential offering document. Actual results for any period may or may not approximate such forward-looking statements. No representations or warranties whatsoever are made by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC or any other person or entity as to the future profitability of investments recommended by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC.