October 18, 2023 Headlines

For Treasuries, the long end of the curve is facing modest pressure again this morning (yields +3-5 bps). China reported GDP and retail sales data that exceeded expectations, but otherwise, the financial headlines were relatively light overnight. The MBA mortgage applications index fell 6.9% last week to the lowest level since 1995. Within the week-over-week change, purchase applications fell 5.6%, and refinance applications were down 9.9%. The MBA reported that the average 30-year conventional contract rate rose to 7.7%, the highest since October 2000. In related news, housing starts rose 7% in September to a 1.358-million-unit pace, slightly below expectations. Single-family starts were up just 3.2%, but the more-volatile multifamily category surged 17.6% last month following a 27.4% decline the prior month. On a more forward-looking basis, building permits fell 4.4% in September, slightly better than expected.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

10/18/23MBA Mortgage Applications-6.90%0.60%
10/18/23Housing Starts1383k1358k1283k1269k
10/18/23Housing Starts MoM7.80%7.00%-11.30%-12.50%
10/18/23Building Permits1453k1473k1543k1541k
10/18/23Building Permits MoM-5.70%-4.40%6.90%6.80%
10/18/23Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
10/18/23Net Long-term TIC Flows$8.8b
10/18/23Total Net TIC Flows$140.6b
10/18/23Monthly Budget Statement-$166.0b-$429.8b
10/19/23Initial Jobless Claims210k209k
10/19/23Continuing Claims1710k1702k
10/19/23Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook-6.9-13.5
10/19/23Existing Home Sales3.89m4.04m
10/19/23Existing Home Sales MoM-3.70%-0.70%
10/19/23Leading Index-0.40%-0.40%
10/20/23Bloomberg Oct. United States Economic Survey
10/23/23Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index-0.16
10/24/23Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity-16.6
10/24/23S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI49.8
10/24/23S&P Global US Services PMI50.1
10/24/23S&P Global US Composite PMI50.2
10/24/23Richmond Fed Manufact. Index5
10/24/23Richmond Fed Business Conditions-5
10/25/23MBA Mortgage Applications-6.90%
10/25/23New Home Sales692k675k
10/25/23New Home Sales MoM2.50%-8.70%

Subscribe Today!

Subscribe to our email list and get the latest articles and announcements from ALM First.

Recent Articles

ALM First offers investment advisory services through ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC, which is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC nor does it indicate that the firm has attained a particular level of skill or ability. The information contained herein does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation for you to purchase or sell any specific security. You are solely responsible for reviewing the content and for any actions you take or choose not to take based on your review of such content.Information contained herein was derived from third party sources as indicated. While such information is believed to be reliable, no representation or warranty is made concerning the accuracy of any information presented. We have not and will not independently verify this information. Where such sources include opinions and projections, such opinions and projections should be ascribed only to the applicable third party source and not to ALM First.Statements herein that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance are forward-looking statements. Such “forward-looking” statements are based on various assumptions, which assumptions may not prove to be correct. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that such assumptions and statements will accurately predict future events or actual performance. No representation or warranty can be given that the estimates, opinions or assumptions made herein will prove to be accurate. Any projections and forward-looking statements included herein should be considered speculative and are qualified in their entirety by the information and risks disclosed in the confidential offering document. Actual results for any period may or may not approximate such forward-looking statements. No representations or warranties whatsoever are made by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC or any other person or entity as to the future profitability of investments recommended by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC.