October 18, 2023 Headlines

For Treasuries, the long end of the curve is facing modest pressure again this morning (yields +3-5 bps). China reported GDP and retail sales data that exceeded expectations, but otherwise, the financial headlines were relatively light overnight. The MBA mortgage applications index fell 6.9% last week to the lowest level since 1995. Within the week-over-week change, purchase applications fell 5.6%, and refinance applications were down 9.9%. The MBA reported that the average 30-year conventional contract rate rose to 7.7%, the highest since October 2000. In related news, housing starts rose 7% in September to a 1.358-million-unit pace, slightly below expectations. Single-family starts were up just 3.2%, but the more-volatile multifamily category surged 17.6% last month following a 27.4% decline the prior month. On a more forward-looking basis, building permits fell 4.4% in September, slightly better than expected.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date	Event	Survey	Actual	Prior	Revised
10/18/23	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	-6.90%	0.60%	—
10/18/23	Housing Starts	1383k	1358k	1283k	1269k
10/18/23	Housing Starts MoM	7.80%	7.00%	-11.30%	-12.50%
10/18/23	Building Permits	1453k	1473k	1543k	1541k
10/18/23	Building Permits MoM	-5.70%	-4.40%	6.90%	6.80%
10/18/23	Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
10/18/23	Net Long-term TIC Flows	—	—	$8.8b	—
10/18/23	Total Net TIC Flows	—	—	$140.6b	—
10/18/23	Monthly Budget Statement	-$166.0b	—	-$429.8b	—
10/19/23	Initial Jobless Claims	210k	—	209k	—
10/19/23	Continuing Claims	1710k	—	1702k	—
10/19/23	Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook	-6.9	—	-13.5	—
10/19/23	Existing Home Sales	3.89m	—	4.04m	—
10/19/23	Existing Home Sales MoM	-3.70%	—	-0.70%	—
10/19/23	Leading Index	-0.40%	—	-0.40%	—
10/20/23	Bloomberg Oct. United States Economic Survey
10/23/23	Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index	—	—	-0.16	—
10/24/23	Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity	—	—	-16.6	—
10/24/23	S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI	—	—	49.8	—
10/24/23	S&P Global US Services PMI	—	—	50.1	—
10/24/23	S&P Global US Composite PMI	—	—	50.2	—
10/24/23	Richmond Fed Manufact. Index	—	—	5	—
10/24/23	Richmond Fed Business Conditions	—	—	-5	—
10/25/23	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	—	-6.90%	—
10/25/23	New Home Sales	692k	—	675k	—
10/25/23	New Home Sales MoM	2.50%	—	-8.70%	—

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