Treasury yields bear-flattened overnight as the markets continue to digest the more hawkish tone of FOMC minutes. Only a “couple of participants” did not favor an outlook of rates being “moderately restrictive” or “temporarily” above their long run levels and all participants agreed on the need to remove “accommodative” from the official statement. In addition, the outlook on growth was positive with tariffs on China seen as having a small effect on GDP moving forward. This morning, the market is focused on Initial Jobless Claims which came in at 210k vs 211k expected. S&P 500 futures are set to open down 11.5 points (-.41%).
Chris Eckhoff
Associate, Investment Management Group
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior |
| 10/15 | Empire Manufacturing | 20 | 21.1 | 19 |
| 10/15 | Retail Sales Advance MoM | 0.60% | 0.10% | 0.10% |
| 10/15 | Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM | 0.40% | -0.10% | 0.30% |
| 10/15 | Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas | 0.30% | 0.00% | 0.20% |
| 10/15 | Retail Sales Control Group | 0.40% | 0.50% | 0.10% |
| 10/15 | Business Inventories | 0.50% | 0.50% | 0.60% |
| 10/15 | Monthly Budget Statement | $83.0b | $119.1b | $7.9b |
| 10/16 | Industrial Production MoM | 0.20% | 0.30% | 0.40% |
| 10/16 | Capacity Utilization | 78.20% | 78.10% | 78.10% |
| 10/16 | Manufacturing (SIC) Production | 0.20% | 0.20% | 0.20% |
| 10/16 | NAHB Housing Market Index | 66 | 68 | 67 |
| 10/16 | JOLTS Job Openings | 6900 | 7136 | 6939 |
| 10/16 | Total Net TIC Flows | $60.3b | $108.2b | $52.2b |
| 10/16 | Net Long-term TIC Flows | — | $131.8b | $74.8b |
| 10/17 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | -7.10% | -1.70% |
| 10/17 | Housing Starts | 1210k | 1201k | 1282k |
| 10/17 | Housing Starts MoM | -5.60% | -5.30% | 9.20% |
| 10/17 | Building Permits | 1275k | 1241k | 1229k |
| 10/17 | Building Permits MoM | 2.00% | -0.60% | -5.70% |
| 10/17 | FOMC Meeting Minutes | — | — | — |
| 10/18 | Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook | 20 | 22.2 | 22.9 |
| 10/18 | Initial Jobless Claims | 211k | 210k | 214k |
| 10/18 | Continuing Claims | 1663k | 1640k | 1660k |
| 10/18 | Bloomberg Economic Expectations | — | — | 57.5 |
| 10/18 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | — | 59.5 |
| 10/18 | Leading Index | 0.50% | — | 0.40% |
| 10/19 | Existing Home Sales | 5.29m | — | 5.34m |
| 10/19 | Existing Home Sales MoM | -0.90% | — | 0.00% |