Treasury yields bear-flattened overnight as the markets continue to digest the more hawkish tone of FOMC minutes. Only a “couple of participants” did not favor an outlook of rates being “moderately restrictive” or “temporarily” above their long run levels and all participants agreed on the need to remove “accommodative” from the official statement. In addition, the outlook on growth was positive with tariffs on China seen as having a small effect on GDP moving forward. This morning, the market is focused on Initial Jobless Claims which came in at 210k vs 211k expected. S&P 500 futures are set to open down 11.5 points (-.41%).

Chris Eckhoff
Associate, Investment Management Group

 

Date Event Survey Actual Prior
10/15 Empire Manufacturing 20 21.1 19
10/15 Retail Sales Advance MoM 0.60% 0.10% 0.10%
10/15 Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM 0.40% -0.10% 0.30%
10/15 Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas 0.30% 0.00% 0.20%
10/15 Retail Sales Control Group 0.40% 0.50% 0.10%
10/15 Business Inventories 0.50% 0.50% 0.60%
10/15 Monthly Budget Statement $83.0b $119.1b $7.9b
10/16 Industrial Production MoM 0.20% 0.30% 0.40%
10/16 Capacity Utilization 78.20% 78.10% 78.10%
10/16 Manufacturing (SIC) Production 0.20% 0.20% 0.20%
10/16 NAHB Housing Market Index 66 68 67
10/16 JOLTS Job Openings 6900 7136 6939
10/16 Total Net TIC Flows $60.3b $108.2b $52.2b
10/16 Net Long-term TIC Flows $131.8b $74.8b
10/17 MBA Mortgage Applications -7.10% -1.70%
10/17 Housing Starts 1210k 1201k 1282k
10/17 Housing Starts MoM -5.60% -5.30% 9.20%
10/17 Building Permits 1275k 1241k 1229k
10/17 Building Permits MoM 2.00% -0.60% -5.70%
10/17 FOMC Meeting Minutes
10/18 Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook 20 22.2 22.9
10/18 Initial Jobless Claims 211k 210k 214k
10/18 Continuing Claims 1663k 1640k 1660k
10/18 Bloomberg Economic Expectations 57.5
10/18 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 59.5
10/18 Leading Index 0.50% 0.40%
10/19 Existing Home Sales 5.29m 5.34m
10/19 Existing Home Sales MoM -0.90% 0.00%