Treasury yields bear-flattened overnight as the markets continue to digest the more hawkish tone of FOMC minutes. Only a “couple of participants” did not favor an outlook of rates being “moderately restrictive” or “temporarily” above their long run levels and all participants agreed on the need to remove “accommodative” from the official statement. In addition, the outlook on growth was positive with tariffs on China seen as having a small effect on GDP moving forward. This morning, the market is focused on Initial Jobless Claims which came in at 210k vs 211k expected. S&P 500 futures are set to open down 11.5 points (-.41%).

Chris Eckhoff
Associate, Investment Management Group


10/15Empire Manufacturing2021.119
10/15Retail Sales Advance MoM0.60%0.10%0.10%
10/15Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.40%-0.10%0.30%
10/15Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.30%0.00%0.20%
10/15Retail Sales Control Group0.40%0.50%0.10%
10/15Business Inventories0.50%0.50%0.60%
10/15Monthly Budget Statement$83.0b$119.1b$7.9b
10/16Industrial Production MoM0.20%0.30%0.40%
10/16Capacity Utilization78.20%78.10%78.10%
10/16Manufacturing (SIC) Production0.20%0.20%0.20%
10/16NAHB Housing Market Index666867
10/16JOLTS Job Openings690071366939
10/16Total Net TIC Flows$60.3b$108.2b$52.2b
10/16Net Long-term TIC Flows$131.8b$74.8b
10/17MBA Mortgage Applications-7.10%-1.70%
10/17Housing Starts1210k1201k1282k
10/17Housing Starts MoM-5.60%-5.30%9.20%
10/17Building Permits1275k1241k1229k
10/17Building Permits MoM2.00%-0.60%-5.70%
10/17FOMC Meeting Minutes
10/18Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook2022.222.9
10/18Initial Jobless Claims211k210k214k
10/18Continuing Claims1663k1640k1660k
10/18Bloomberg Economic Expectations57.5
10/18Bloomberg Consumer Comfort59.5
10/18Leading Index0.50%0.40%
10/19Existing Home Sales5.29m5.34m
10/19Existing Home Sales MoM-0.90%0.00%