Catalonia’s failure to disavow the region’s independence push sparked a risk off trade overnight; equities and oil fell 0.4% to 1%, while Treasuries rallied four basis points across the curve. Domestically, initial jobless claims came in better than expected, with 222,000 Americans filing for unemployment vs. the consensus expectation of 240,000. Given the decline in jobless claims week over week as well as improvements in other economic indicators, it appears the impact of the hurricanes has been short-lived and should not have a lasting effect on the overall economy.

Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group

Date Event Surv(M) Actual Prior
10/16 Empire Manufacturing 20.4 30.2 24.4
10/17 Import Price Index MoM 0.60% 0.70% 0.60%
10/17 Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM 0.20% 0.30% 0.30%
10/17 Import Price Index YoY 2.60% 2.70% 2.10%
10/17 Export Price Index MoM 0.50% 0.80% 0.60%
10/17 Export Price Index YoY 2.90% 2.30%
10/17 Industrial Production MoM 0.30% 0.30% -0.90%
10/17 Capacity Utilization 76.20% 76.00% 76.10%
10/17 Manufacturing (SIC) Production 0.20% 0.10% -0.30%
10/17 NAHB Housing Market Index 64 68 64
10/17 Total Net TIC Flows $125.0b -$7.3b
10/17 Net Long-term TIC Flows $67.2b $1.3b
10/18 MBA Mortgage Applications 3.60% -2.10%
10/18 Housing Starts 1175k 1127k 1180k
10/18 Housing Starts MoM -0.40% -4.70% -0.80%
10/18 Building Permits 1245k 1215k 1300k
10/18 Building Permits MoM -2.10% -4.50% 5.70%
10/18 U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
10/19 Initial Jobless Claims 240k 222k 243k
10/19 Continuing Claims 1890k 1888k 1889k
10/19 Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook 22 27.9 23.8
10/19 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 51.1 49.5
10/19 Bloomberg Economic Expectations 47.5 51.5
10/19 Leading Index 0.10% 0.40%
10/19-10/20 Monthly Budget Statement $6.0b $33.4b
10/20 Existing Home Sales 5.30m 5.35m
10/20 Existing Home Sales MoM -0.90% -1.70%