Catalonia’s failure to disavow the region’s independence push sparked a risk off trade overnight; equities and oil fell 0.4% to 1%, while Treasuries rallied four basis points across the curve. Domestically, initial jobless claims came in better than expected, with 222,000 Americans filing for unemployment vs. the consensus expectation of 240,000. Given the decline in jobless claims week over week as well as improvements in other economic indicators, it appears the impact of the hurricanes has been short-lived and should not have a lasting effect on the overall economy.
Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group
| Date | Event | Surv(M) | Actual | Prior |
| 10/16 | Empire Manufacturing | 20.4 | 30.2 | 24.4 |
| 10/17 | Import Price Index MoM | 0.60% | 0.70% | 0.60% |
| 10/17 | Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM | 0.20% | 0.30% | 0.30% |
| 10/17 | Import Price Index YoY | 2.60% | 2.70% | 2.10% |
| 10/17 | Export Price Index MoM | 0.50% | 0.80% | 0.60% |
| 10/17 | Export Price Index YoY | — | 2.90% | 2.30% |
| 10/17 | Industrial Production MoM | 0.30% | 0.30% | -0.90% |
| 10/17 | Capacity Utilization | 76.20% | 76.00% | 76.10% |
| 10/17 | Manufacturing (SIC) Production | 0.20% | 0.10% | -0.30% |
| 10/17 | NAHB Housing Market Index | 64 | 68 | 64 |
| 10/17 | Total Net TIC Flows | — | $125.0b | -$7.3b |
| 10/17 | Net Long-term TIC Flows | — | $67.2b | $1.3b |
| 10/18 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | 3.60% | -2.10% |
| 10/18 | Housing Starts | 1175k | 1127k | 1180k |
| 10/18 | Housing Starts MoM | -0.40% | -4.70% | -0.80% |
| 10/18 | Building Permits | 1245k | 1215k | 1300k |
| 10/18 | Building Permits MoM | -2.10% | -4.50% | 5.70% |
| 10/18 | U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book | |||
| 10/19 | Initial Jobless Claims | 240k | 222k | 243k |
| 10/19 | Continuing Claims | 1890k | 1888k | 1889k |
| 10/19 | Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook | 22 | 27.9 | 23.8 |
| 10/19 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | 51.1 | 49.5 |
| 10/19 | Bloomberg Economic Expectations | — | 47.5 | 51.5 |
| 10/19 | Leading Index | 0.10% | — | 0.40% |
| 10/19-10/20 | Monthly Budget Statement | $6.0b | — | $33.4b |
| 10/20 | Existing Home Sales | 5.30m | — | 5.35m |
| 10/20 | Existing Home Sales MoM | -0.90% | — | -1.70% |