October 19, 2023 Headlines

Another day, another steepener. Long-end Treasury yields are drifting higher again to start the day, with the 10-year note nearly breaching 5% for the first time since July 2007. For further context, the 10-year yield has exceeded this level (5%) on just 99 trading days (1.9%) of the last 20 years with a high of 5.3% in June 2007. As such, the 2-year/10-year yield spread is at the least inverted level (-0.28%) in a year. On the data front, initial jobless claims were less than expected last week at 198,000, the first time below 200k since January. Fed Chair Powell will speak to the Economic Club of New York later this morning and perhaps provide color on how he and his colleagues perceive the recent curve steepening as it relates to future monetary policy.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date	Event	Survey	Actual	Prior	Revised
10/19/2023	Initial Jobless Claims	210k	198k	209k	211k
10/19/2023	Continuing Claims	1706k	1734k	1702k	1705k
10/19/2023	Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook	-7	-9	-13.5	—
10/19/2023	Existing Home Sales	3.89m	—	4.04m	—
10/19/2023	Existing Home Sales MoM	-3.70%	—	-0.70%	—
10/19/2023	Leading Index	-0.40%	—	-0.40%	—
10/20/2023	Bloomberg Oct. United States Economic Survey
10/20/2023	Monthly Budget Statement	-$166.0b	—	-$429.8b	—
10/23/2023	Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index	—	—	-0.16	—
10/24/2023	Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity	—	—	-16.6	—
10/24/2023	S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI	—	—	49.8	—
10/24/2023	S&P Global US Services PMI	—	—	50.1	—
10/24/2023	S&P Global US Composite PMI	—	—	50.2	—
10/24/2023	Richmond Fed Manufact. Index	—	—	5	—
10/24/2023	Richmond Fed Business Conditions	—	—	-5	—
10/25/2023	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	—	-6.90%	—
10/25/2023	New Home Sales	684k	—	675k	—
10/25/2023	New Home Sales MoM	1.30%	—	-8.70%	—
10/26/2023	Wholesale Inventories MoM	—	—	-0.10%	—
10/26/2023	Advance Goods Trade Balance	-$85.5b	—	-$84.3b	-$84.6b
10/26/2023	GDP Annualized QoQ	4.00%	—	2.10%	—
10/26/2023	Personal Consumption	3.60%	—	0.80%	—
10/26/2023	Retail Inventories MoM	—	—	1.10%	—
10/26/2023	GDP Price Index	2.40%	—	1.70%	—
10/26/2023	Durable Goods Orders	1.00%	—	0.10%	—
10/26/2023	Core PCE Price Index QoQ	—	—	3.70%	—
10/26/2023	Durables Ex Transportation	0.30%	—	0.40%	—
10/26/2023	Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air	0.00%	—	0.90%	—
10/26/2023	Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air	—	—	0.70%	—
10/26/2023	Initial Jobless Claims	—	—	198k	—
10/26/2023	Continuing Claims	—	—	1734k	—
10/26/2023	Pending Home Sales MoM	—	—	-7.10%	—
10/26/2023	Pending Home Sales NSA YoY	—	—	-18.80%	—
10/26/2023	Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity	—	—	-8	—

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