October 19, 2023 Headlines

Another day, another steepener. Long-end Treasury yields are drifting higher again to start the day, with the 10-year note nearly breaching 5% for the first time since July 2007. For further context, the 10-year yield has exceeded this level (5%) on just 99 trading days (1.9%) of the last 20 years with a high of 5.3% in June 2007. As such, the 2-year/10-year yield spread is at the least inverted level (-0.28%) in a year. On the data front, initial jobless claims were less than expected last week at 198,000, the first time below 200k since January. Fed Chair Powell will speak to the Economic Club of New York later this morning and perhaps provide color on how he and his colleagues perceive the recent curve steepening as it relates to future monetary policy.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

10/19/2023Initial Jobless Claims210k198k209k211k
10/19/2023Continuing Claims1706k1734k1702k1705k
10/19/2023Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook-7-9-13.5
10/19/2023Existing Home Sales3.89m4.04m
10/19/2023Existing Home Sales MoM-3.70%-0.70%
10/19/2023Leading Index-0.40%-0.40%
10/20/2023Bloomberg Oct. United States Economic Survey
10/20/2023Monthly Budget Statement-$166.0b-$429.8b
10/23/2023Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index-0.16
10/24/2023Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity-16.6
10/24/2023S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI49.8
10/24/2023S&P Global US Services PMI50.1
10/24/2023S&P Global US Composite PMI50.2
10/24/2023Richmond Fed Manufact. Index5
10/24/2023Richmond Fed Business Conditions-5
10/25/2023MBA Mortgage Applications-6.90%
10/25/2023New Home Sales684k675k
10/25/2023New Home Sales MoM1.30%-8.70%
10/26/2023Wholesale Inventories MoM-0.10%
10/26/2023Advance Goods Trade Balance-$85.5b-$84.3b-$84.6b
10/26/2023GDP Annualized QoQ4.00%2.10%
10/26/2023Personal Consumption3.60%0.80%
10/26/2023Retail Inventories MoM1.10%
10/26/2023GDP Price Index2.40%1.70%
10/26/2023Durable Goods Orders1.00%0.10%
10/26/2023Core PCE Price Index QoQ3.70%
10/26/2023Durables Ex Transportation0.30%0.40%
10/26/2023Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.00%0.90%
10/26/2023Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.70%
10/26/2023Initial Jobless Claims198k
10/26/2023Continuing Claims1734k
10/26/2023Pending Home Sales MoM-7.10%
10/26/2023Pending Home Sales NSA YoY-18.80%
10/26/2023Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity-8


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