There’s a better tone in risk markets today following the announcement of a new NAFTA agreement. Treasury yields are modestly higher across the curve, and S&P 500 futures are up 14 points. Markets in China, Hong Kong, and Australia were closed for holiday, so overnight volumes were relatively light. While U.S. officials were able to reach a new trade agreement with Canada, relations with China show no signs of improvement. Previously scheduled security talks between U.S. Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis and his Chinese counterpart have been cancelled according to multiple media reports. This week’s economic calendar is headlined by the September jobs report on Friday, and several Fed officials will speak this week, including Chairman Powell at a NABE conference in Boston tomorrow.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

 

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
10/01Markit US Manufacturing PMI55.655.655.6
10/01Construction Spending MoM0.40%0.10%
10/01ISM Manufacturing6061.3
10/01ISM Employment58.5
10/01ISM Prices Paid71.472.1
10/01ISM New Orders65.1
10/02Wards Total Vehicle Sales16.80m16.60m
10/03MBA Mortgage Applications2.90%
10/03ADP Employment Change184k163k
10/03Markit US Services PMI5352.9
10/03Markit US Composite PMI53.4
10/03ISM Non-Manufacturing Index5858.5
10/04Challenger Job Cuts YoY13.70%
10/04Initial Jobless Claims215k214k
10/04Continuing Claims1665k1661k
10/04Bloomberg Consumer Comfort61.2
10/04Factory Orders2.10%-0.80%
10/04Factory Orders Ex Trans0.20%
10/04Durable Goods Orders4.50%4.50%
10/04Durables Ex Transportation0.10%
10/04Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air-0.50%
10/04Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.10%
10/05Trade Balance-$53.5b-$50.1b
10/05Change in Nonfarm Payrolls181k201k
10/05Two-Month Payroll Net Revision-50k
10/05Change in Private Payrolls180k204k
10/05Change in Manufact. Payrolls15k-3k
10/05Unemployment Rate3.80%3.90%
10/05Underemployment Rate7.40%
10/05Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%0.40%
10/05Average Hourly Earnings YoY2.80%2.90%
10/05Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.534.5
10/05Labor Force Participation Rate62.70%62.70%
10/05Consumer Credit$15.000b$16.640b