It was a quiet overnight session for Treasuries with China, Hong Kong, and South Korea closed for holiday, and prices are firming modestly thus far in this morning’s session. Investors are digesting several headlines this morning, including the tragic shootings in Las Vegas last night. Bond yields were pressured higher on Friday on heightened speculation that former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh will be President Trump’s nomination to be the new Fed Chair when Janet Yellen’s term expires in February. Warsh is generally viewed as more conservative/hawkish in his monetary policy views relative to Yellen, but he would not be perceived as a major disrupter (i.e., not controversial). Not including the Fed Chair, four of the seven spots of the Fed Board of Governors are open now, which is a historical anomaly. The creates more uncertainty toward future policy at a time when the Fed is engaged in unwinding extraordinary policy accommodation. This week’s economic calendar is headlined by the September jobs report on Friday, and several Fed leaders are scheduled to speak this week, including Bill Dudley on Friday.
Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group
| Date Time | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised | |
| 10/02/2017 08:45 | Markit US Manufacturing PMI | Sep F | 53 | — | 53 | — |
| 10/02/2017 09:00 | ISM Manufacturing | Sep | 58.1 | — | 58.8 | — |
| 10/02/2017 09:00 | ISM Prices Paid | Sep | 63 | — | 62 | — |
| 10/02/2017 09:00 | ISM New Orders | Sep | — | — | 60.3 | — |
| 10/02/2017 09:00 | ISM Employment | Sep | — | — | 59.9 | — |
| 10/02/2017 09:00 | Construction Spending MoM | Aug | 0.40% | — | -0.60% | — |
| 10/03/2017 | Wards Total Vehicle Sales | Sep | 17.10m | — | 16.03m | — |
| 10/03/2017 | Wards Domestic Vehicle Sales | Sep | 13.00m | — | 12.48m | — |
| 10/04/2017 06:00 | MBA Mortgage Applications | 29-Sep | — | — | -0.50% | — |
| 10/04/2017 07:15 | ADP Employment Change | Sep | 138k | — | 237k | — |
| 10/04/2017 08:45 | Markit US Services PMI | Sep F | 55.1 | — | 55.1 | — |
| 10/04/2017 08:45 | Markit US Composite PMI | Sep F | — | — | 54.6 | — |
| 10/04/2017 09:00 | ISM Non-Manf. Composite | Sep | 55.5 | — | 55.3 | — |
| 10/05/2017 06:30 | Challenger Job Cuts YoY | Sep | — | — | 5.10% | — |
| 10/05/2017 07:30 | Initial Jobless Claims | 30-Sep | 265k | — | 272k | — |
| 10/05/2017 07:30 | Continuing Claims | 23-Sep | 1949k | — | 1934k | — |
| 10/05/2017 07:30 | Trade Balance | Aug | -$42.7b | — | -$43.7b | — |
| 10/05/2017 08:45 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | 1-Oct | — | — | 51.6 | — |
| 10/05/2017 09:00 | Factory Orders | Aug | 1.00% | — | -3.30% | — |
| 10/05/2017 09:00 | Factory Orders Ex Trans | Aug | — | — | 0.50% | — |
| 10/05/2017 09:00 | Durable Goods Orders | Aug F | 1.70% | — | 1.70% | — |
| 10/05/2017 09:00 | Durables Ex Transportation | Aug F | — | — | 0.20% | — |
| 10/05/2017 09:00 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | Aug F | — | — | 0.90% | — |
| 10/05/2017 09:00 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | Aug F | — | — | 0.70% | — |
| 10/06/2017 07:30 | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | Sep | 80k | — | 156k | — |
| 10/06/2017 07:30 | Two-Month Payroll Net Revision | Sep | — | — | — | — |
| 10/06/2017 07:30 | Change in Private Payrolls | Sep | 74k | — | 165k | — |
| 10/06/2017 07:30 | Change in Manufact. Payrolls | Sep | 10k | — | 36k | — |
| 10/06/2017 07:30 | Unemployment Rate | Sep | 4.40% | — | 4.40% | — |
| 10/06/2017 07:30 | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | Sep | 0.30% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 10/06/2017 07:30 | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | Sep | 2.50% | — | 2.50% | — |
| 10/06/2017 07:30 | Average Weekly Hours All Employees | Sep | 34.4 | — | 34.4 | — |
| 10/06/2017 07:30 | Labor Force Participation Rate | Sep | — | — | 62.90% | — |
| 10/06/2017 07:30 | Underemployment Rate | Sep | — | — | 8.60% | — |
| 10/06/2017 09:00 | Wholesale Trade Sales MoM | Aug | 0.00% | — | -0.10% | — |
| 10/06/2017 09:00 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | Aug F | 1.00% | — | 1.00% | — |
| 10/06/2017 14:00 | Consumer Credit | Aug | $15.580b | — | $18.499b | — |