It was a quiet overnight session for Treasuries with China, Hong Kong, and South Korea closed for holiday, and prices are firming modestly thus far in this morning’s session. Investors are digesting several headlines this morning, including the tragic shootings in Las Vegas last night. Bond yields were pressured higher on Friday on heightened speculation that former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh will be President Trump’s nomination to be the new Fed Chair when Janet Yellen’s term expires in February. Warsh is generally viewed as more conservative/hawkish in his monetary policy views relative to Yellen, but he would not be perceived as a major disrupter (i.e., not controversial). Not including the Fed Chair, four of the seven spots of the Fed Board of Governors are open now, which is a historical anomaly. The creates more uncertainty toward future policy at a time when the Fed is engaged in unwinding extraordinary policy accommodation. This week’s economic calendar is headlined by the September jobs report on Friday, and several Fed leaders are scheduled to speak this week, including Bill Dudley on Friday.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

Date TimeEvent SurveyActualPriorRevised
10/02/2017 08:45Markit US Manufacturing PMISep F5353
10/02/2017 09:00ISM ManufacturingSep58.158.8
10/02/2017 09:00ISM Prices PaidSep6362
10/02/2017 09:00ISM New OrdersSep60.3
10/02/2017 09:00ISM EmploymentSep59.9
10/02/2017 09:00Construction Spending MoMAug0.40%-0.60%
10/03/2017Wards Total Vehicle SalesSep17.10m16.03m
10/03/2017Wards Domestic Vehicle SalesSep13.00m12.48m
10/04/2017 06:00MBA Mortgage Applications29-Sep-0.50%
10/04/2017 07:15ADP Employment ChangeSep138k237k
10/04/2017 08:45Markit US Services PMISep F55.155.1
10/04/2017 08:45Markit US Composite PMISep F54.6
10/04/2017 09:00ISM Non-Manf. CompositeSep55.555.3
10/05/2017 06:30Challenger Job Cuts YoYSep5.10%
10/05/2017 07:30Initial Jobless Claims30-Sep265k272k
10/05/2017 07:30Continuing Claims23-Sep1949k1934k
10/05/2017 07:30Trade BalanceAug-$42.7b-$43.7b
10/05/2017 08:45Bloomberg Consumer Comfort1-Oct51.6
10/05/2017 09:00Factory OrdersAug1.00%-3.30%
10/05/2017 09:00Factory Orders Ex TransAug0.50%
10/05/2017 09:00Durable Goods OrdersAug F1.70%1.70%
10/05/2017 09:00Durables Ex TransportationAug F0.20%
10/05/2017 09:00Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex AirAug F0.90%
10/05/2017 09:00Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex AirAug F0.70%
10/06/2017 07:30Change in Nonfarm PayrollsSep80k156k
10/06/2017 07:30Two-Month Payroll Net RevisionSep
10/06/2017 07:30Change in Private PayrollsSep74k165k
10/06/2017 07:30Change in Manufact. PayrollsSep10k36k
10/06/2017 07:30Unemployment RateSep4.40%4.40%
10/06/2017 07:30Average Hourly Earnings MoMSep0.30%0.10%
10/06/2017 07:30Average Hourly Earnings YoYSep2.50%2.50%
10/06/2017 07:30Average Weekly Hours All EmployeesSep34.434.4
10/06/2017 07:30Labor Force Participation RateSep62.90%
10/06/2017 07:30Underemployment RateSep8.60%
10/06/2017 09:00Wholesale Trade Sales MoMAug0.00%-0.10%
10/06/2017 09:00Wholesale Inventories MoMAug F1.00%1.00%
10/06/2017 14:00Consumer CreditAug$15.580b$18.499b