News of President Trump and the First Lady testing positive for coronavirus has sparked a broad risk-off trade in financial markets. Treasury yields are lower and flatter, and S&P 500 futures are down 1.3% ahead of the open.
Nonfarm payrolls added 661,000 jobs in September, nearly 200,000 less than expected. Private payrolls added 877,000 jobs in the month, with the difference between the two being a 216,000 reduction in government jobs. The reduction of government jobs was primarily concentrated in educational services, which is likely attributable to less school hiring this year because of Covid. In the household survey, the headline unemployment rate fell 50 bps to 7.9% (8.2% expected), but the underlying numbers weren’t exactly great. Household employment grew by 275,000, by far the smallest gain in the current recovery, and the labor force declined by 695,000, pushing the labor participation rate down 30 bps to 61.4%.
Overall, this is a good report, but the reduction in labor force participation will likely be a big talking point in economic and policy circles. With enhanced federal unemployment benefits expiring back in July, one would reasonably expect the labor force to be increasing at this point, and this will likely heighten the debate for additional fiscal aid from Congress.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
9/28/20 | Dallas Fed Manf. Activity | 9.5 | 13.6 | 8 | — |
9/29/20 | Advance Goods Trade Balance | -$81.8b | -$82.9b | -$79.3b | -$80.1b |
9/29/20 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | -0.10% | 0.50% | -0.30% | -0.10% |
9/29/20 | Retail Inventories MoM | 1.10% | 0.80% | 1.20% | — |
9/29/20 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA | 0.10% | 0.55% | 0.00% | — |
9/29/20 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA | 3.60% | 3.95% | 3.46% | — |
9/29/20 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index | — | 226.55 | 225.13 | 225.14 |
9/29/20 | S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA | — | 4.78% | 4.29% | 4.35% |
9/29/20 | S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index | — | 221.64 | 219.82 | 219.92 |
9/29/20 | Conf. Board Consumer Confidence | 90 | 101.8 | 84.8 | 86.3 |
9/29/20 | Conf. Board Present Situation | — | 98.5 | 84.2 | 85.8 |
9/29/20 | Conf. Board Expectations | — | 104 | 85.2 | 86.6 |
9/30/20 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | -4.80% | 6.80% | — |
9/30/20 | ADP Employment Change | 649k | 749k | 428k | 481k |
9/30/20 | MNI Chicago PMI | 52 | 62.4 | 51.2 | — |
9/30/20 | GDP Annualized QoQ | -31.70% | -31.40% | -31.70% | — |
9/30/20 | Personal Consumption | -34.10% | -33.20% | -34.10% | — |
9/30/20 | GDP Price Index | -2.00% | -1.80% | -2.00% | — |
9/30/20 | Core PCE QoQ | -1.00% | -0.80% | -1.00% | — |
9/30/20 | Pending Home Sales MoM | 3.10% | 8.80% | 5.90% | — |
9/30/20 | Pending Home Sales NSA YoY | 17.60% | 20.50% | 15.40% | — |
10/1/20 | Challenger Job Cuts YoY | — | 185.90% | 116.50% | — |
10/1/20 | Initial Jobless Claims | 850k | 837k | 870k | 873k |
10/1/20 | Continuing Claims | 12200k | 11767k | 12580k | 12747k |
10/1/20 | Personal Income | -2.50% | -2.70% | 0.40% | 0.50% |
10/1/20 | Personal Spending | 0.80% | 1.00% | 1.90% | 1.50% |
10/1/20 | Real Personal Spending | 0.50% | 0.70% | 1.60% | 1.10% |
10/1/20 | PCE Deflator MoM | 0.30% | 0.30% | 0.30% | 0.40% |
10/1/20 | PCE Deflator YoY | 1.20% | 1.40% | 1.00% | 1.10% |
10/1/20 | PCE Core Deflator MoM | 0.30% | 0.30% | 0.30% | 0.40% |
10/1/20 | PCE Core Deflator YoY | 1.40% | 1.60% | 1.30% | 1.40% |
10/1/20 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | 49.3 | 49.8 | — |
10/1/20 | Markit US Manufacturing PMI | 53.5 | 53.2 | 53.5 | — |
10/1/20 | Construction Spending MoM | 0.70% | 1.40% | 0.10% | 0.70% |
10/1/20 | ISM Manufacturing | 56.5 | 55.4 | 56 | — |
10/1/20 | ISM New Orders | 65.2 | 60.2 | 67.6 | — |
10/1/20 | ISM Prices Paid | 58.8 | 62.8 | 59.5 | — |
10/1/20 | ISM Employment | — | 49.6 | 46.4 | — |
10/1/20 | Wards Total Vehicle Sales | 15.70m | 16.34m | 15.19m | — |
10/2/20 | Two-Month Payroll Net Revision | — | 145k | — | — |
10/2/20 | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | 859k | 661k | 1371k | 1489k |
10/2/20 | Change in Private Payrolls | 850k | 877k | 1027k | 1022k |
10/2/20 | Change in Manufact. Payrolls | 35k | 66k | 29k | 36k |
10/2/20 | Unemployment Rate | 8.20% | 7.90% | 8.40% | — |
10/2/20 | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 0.20% | 0.10% | 0.40% | 0.30% |
10/2/20 | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 4.80% | 4.70% | 4.70% | 4.60% |
10/2/20 | Average Weekly Hours All Employees | 34.6 | 34.7 | 34.6 | — |
10/2/20 | Labor Force Participation Rate | 61.90% | 61.40% | 61.70% | — |
10/2/20 | Underemployment Rate | — | 12.80% | 14.20% | — |
10/2/20 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 79 | — | 78.9 | — |
10/2/20 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | — | — | 87.5 | — |
10/2/20 | U. of Mich. Expectations | — | — | 73.3 | — |
10/2/20 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.70% | — |
10/2/20 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.60% | — |
10/2/20 | Factory Orders | 0.90% | — | 6.40% | — |
10/2/20 | Factory Orders Ex Trans | 1.10% | — | 2.10% | — |
10/2/20 | Durable Goods Orders | 0.40% | — | 0.40% | — |
10/2/20 | Durables Ex Transportation | 0.40% | — | 0.40% | — |
10/2/20 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | 1.70% | — | 1.80% | — |
10/2/20 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | — | — | 1.50% | — |
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