October 2, 2020 Headlines

News of President Trump and the First Lady testing positive for coronavirus has sparked a broad risk-off trade in financial markets. Treasury yields are lower and flatter, and S&P 500 futures are down 1.3% ahead of the open.

Nonfarm payrolls added 661,000 jobs in September, nearly 200,000 less than expected. Private payrolls added 877,000 jobs in the month, with the difference between the two being a 216,000 reduction in government jobs. The reduction of government jobs was primarily concentrated in educational services, which is likely attributable to less school hiring this year because of Covid. In the household survey, the headline unemployment rate fell 50 bps to 7.9% (8.2% expected), but the underlying numbers weren’t exactly great. Household employment grew by 275,000, by far the smallest gain in the current recovery, and the labor force declined by 695,000, pushing the labor participation rate down 30 bps to 61.4%.

Overall, this is a good report, but the reduction in labor force participation will likely be a big talking point in economic and policy circles. With enhanced federal unemployment benefits expiring back in July, one would reasonably expect the labor force to be increasing at this point, and this will likely heighten the debate for additional fiscal aid from Congress.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
9/28/20 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity 9.5 13.6 8 —
9/29/20 Advance Goods Trade Balance -$81.8b -$82.9b -$79.3b -$80.1b
9/29/20 Wholesale Inventories MoM -0.10% 0.50% -0.30% -0.10%
9/29/20 Retail Inventories MoM 1.10% 0.80% 1.20% —
9/29/20 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA 0.10% 0.55% 0.00% —
9/29/20 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA 3.60% 3.95% 3.46% —
9/29/20 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index — 226.55 225.13 225.14
9/29/20 S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA — 4.78% 4.29% 4.35%
9/29/20 S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index — 221.64 219.82 219.92
9/29/20 Conf. Board Consumer Confidence 90 101.8 84.8 86.3
9/29/20 Conf. Board Present Situation — 98.5 84.2 85.8
9/29/20 Conf. Board Expectations — 104 85.2 86.6
9/30/20 MBA Mortgage Applications — -4.80% 6.80% —
9/30/20 ADP Employment Change 649k 749k 428k 481k
9/30/20 MNI Chicago PMI 52 62.4 51.2 —
9/30/20 GDP Annualized QoQ -31.70% -31.40% -31.70% —
9/30/20 Personal Consumption -34.10% -33.20% -34.10% —
9/30/20 GDP Price Index -2.00% -1.80% -2.00% —
9/30/20 Core PCE QoQ -1.00% -0.80% -1.00% —
9/30/20 Pending Home Sales MoM 3.10% 8.80% 5.90% —
9/30/20 Pending Home Sales NSA YoY 17.60% 20.50% 15.40% —
10/1/20 Challenger Job Cuts YoY — 185.90% 116.50% —
10/1/20 Initial Jobless Claims 850k 837k 870k 873k
10/1/20 Continuing Claims 12200k 11767k 12580k 12747k
10/1/20 Personal Income -2.50% -2.70% 0.40% 0.50%
10/1/20 Personal Spending 0.80% 1.00% 1.90% 1.50%
10/1/20 Real Personal Spending 0.50% 0.70% 1.60% 1.10%
10/1/20 PCE Deflator MoM 0.30% 0.30% 0.30% 0.40%
10/1/20 PCE Deflator YoY 1.20% 1.40% 1.00% 1.10%
10/1/20 PCE Core Deflator MoM 0.30% 0.30% 0.30% 0.40%
10/1/20 PCE Core Deflator YoY 1.40% 1.60% 1.30% 1.40%
10/1/20 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort — 49.3 49.8 —
10/1/20 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 53.5 53.2 53.5 —
10/1/20 Construction Spending MoM 0.70% 1.40% 0.10% 0.70%
10/1/20 ISM Manufacturing 56.5 55.4 56 —
10/1/20 ISM New Orders 65.2 60.2 67.6 —
10/1/20 ISM Prices Paid 58.8 62.8 59.5 —
10/1/20 ISM Employment — 49.6 46.4 —
10/1/20 Wards Total Vehicle Sales 15.70m 16.34m 15.19m —
10/2/20 Two-Month Payroll Net Revision — 145k — —
10/2/20 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 859k 661k 1371k 1489k
10/2/20 Change in Private Payrolls 850k 877k 1027k 1022k
10/2/20 Change in Manufact. Payrolls 35k 66k 29k 36k
10/2/20 Unemployment Rate 8.20% 7.90% 8.40% —
10/2/20 Average Hourly Earnings MoM 0.20% 0.10% 0.40% 0.30%
10/2/20 Average Hourly Earnings YoY 4.80% 4.70% 4.70% 4.60%
10/2/20 Average Weekly Hours All Employees 34.6 34.7 34.6 —
10/2/20 Labor Force Participation Rate 61.90% 61.40% 61.70% —
10/2/20 Underemployment Rate — 12.80% 14.20% —
10/2/20 U. of Mich. Sentiment 79 — 78.9 —
10/2/20 U. of Mich. Current Conditions — — 87.5 —
10/2/20 U. of Mich. Expectations — — 73.3 —
10/2/20 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation — — 2.70% —
10/2/20 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation — — 2.60% —
10/2/20 Factory Orders 0.90% — 6.40% —
10/2/20 Factory Orders Ex Trans 1.10% — 2.10% —
10/2/20 Durable Goods Orders 0.40% — 0.40% —
10/2/20 Durables Ex Transportation 0.40% — 0.40% —
10/2/20 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air 1.70% — 1.80% —
10/2/20 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air — — 1.50% —

 

Subscribe Today!

Subscribe to our email list and get the latest articles and announcements from ALM First.

Subscribe

Recent Articles

ALM First offers investment advisory services through ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC, which is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC nor does it indicate that the firm has attained a particular level of skill or ability. The information contained herein does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation for you to purchase or sell any specific security. You are solely responsible for reviewing the content and for any actions you take or choose not to take based on your review of such content. Information contained herein was derived from third party sources as indicated. While such information is believed to be reliable, no representation or warranty is made concerning the accuracy of any information presented. We have not and will not independently verify this information. Where such sources include opinions and projections, such opinions and projections should be ascribed only to the applicable third party source and not to ALM First. Statements herein that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance are forward-looking statements. Such “forward-looking” statements are based on various assumptions, which assumptions may not prove to be correct. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that such assumptions and statements will accurately predict future events or actual performance. No representation or warranty can be given that the estimates, opinions or assumptions made herein will prove to be accurate. Any projections and forward-looking statements included herein should be considered speculative and are qualified in their entirety by the information and risks disclosed in the confidential offering document. Actual results for any period may or may not approximate such forward-looking statements. No representations or warranties whatsoever are made by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC or any other person or entity as to the future profitability of investments recommended by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC.