October 2, 2023 Headlines

Treasury yields are 5-7 basis points higher to start the week after a government shutdown was avoided at the last minute, and economic data out of China and Japan are also contributing to the sell off. The market now awaits comments from Jerome Powell later this morning. This week’s economic calendar will be headlined by the September jobs report on Friday, and we’ll get a fresh look at job openings from the August JOLTS report tomorrow. There will also be several other Fed leaders speaking this week.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

10/02/23S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI48.948.9
10/02/23Construction Spending MoM0.50%0.70%
10/02/23ISM Manufacturing47.947.6
10/02/23ISM Prices Paid4948.4
10/02/23ISM Employment48.648.5
10/02/23ISM New Orders47.846.8
10/03/23JOLTS Job Openings8823k8827k
10/03/23Wards Total Vehicle Sales15.40m15.04m
10/04/23MBA Mortgage Applications-1.30%
10/04/23ADP Employment Change150k177k
10/04/23S&P Global US Services PMI50.250.2
10/04/23S&P Global US Composite PMI50.150.1
10/04/23Factory Orders0.30%-2.10%
10/04/23Factory Orders Ex Trans0.80%
10/04/23Durable Goods Orders0.20%0.20%
10/04/23Durables Ex Transportation0.40%0.40%
10/04/23Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.90%
10/04/23Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.70%
10/04/23ISM Services Index53.554.5
10/04/23ISM Services Prices Paid58.9
10/04/23ISM Services Employment54.7
10/04/23ISM Services New Orders57.5
10/05/23Challenger Job Cuts YoY266.90%
10/05/23Trade Balance-$59.6b-$65.0b
10/05/23Initial Jobless Claims210k204k
10/05/23Continuing Claims1675k1670k
10/06/23Change in Nonfarm Payrolls168k187k
10/06/23Two-Month Payroll Net Revision-110k
10/06/23Change in Private Payrolls155k179k
10/06/23Change in Manufact. Payrolls5k16k
10/06/23Unemployment Rate3.70%3.80%
10/06/23Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%0.20%
10/06/23Average Hourly Earnings YoY4.30%4.30%
10/06/23Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.434.4
10/06/23Labor Force Participation Rate62.80%62.80%
10/06/23Underemployment Rate7.10%
10/06/23Consumer Credit$11.700b$10.399b

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