October 20, 2017

by Jason Haley | Oct 20, 2017 | Beyond the Headlines

Catalonia’s failure to disavow the region’s independence push sparked a risk off trade overnight; equities and oil fell 0.4% to 1%, while Treasuries rallied four basis points across the curve. Domestically, initial jobless claims came in better than expected, with 222,000 Americans filing for unemployment vs. the consensus expectation of 240,000. Given the decline in jobless claims week over week as well as improvements in other economic indicators, it appears the impact of the hurricanes has been short-lived and should not have a lasting effect on the overall economy.

Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group

Date	Event	Surv(M)	Actual	Prior
10/16	Empire Manufacturing	20.4	30.2	24.4
10/17	Import Price Index MoM	0.60%	0.70%	0.60%
10/17	Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM	0.20%	0.30%	0.30%
10/17	Import Price Index YoY	2.60%	2.70%	2.10%
10/17	Export Price Index MoM	0.50%	0.80%	0.60%
10/17	Export Price Index YoY	—	2.90%	2.30%
10/17	Industrial Production MoM	0.30%	0.30%	-0.90%
10/17	Capacity Utilization	76.20%	76.00%	76.10%
10/17	Manufacturing (SIC) Production	0.20%	0.10%	-0.30%
10/17	NAHB Housing Market Index	64	68	64
10/17	Total Net TIC Flows	—	$125.0b	-$7.3b
10/17	Net Long-term TIC Flows	—	$67.2b	$1.3b
10/18	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	3.60%	-2.10%
10/18	Housing Starts	1175k	1127k	1180k
10/18	Housing Starts MoM	-0.40%	-4.70%	-0.80%
10/18	Building Permits	1245k	1215k	1300k
10/18	Building Permits MoM	-2.10%	-4.50%	5.70%
10/18	U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
10/19	Initial Jobless Claims	240k	222k	243k
10/19	Continuing Claims	1890k	1888k	1889k
10/19	Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook	22	27.9	23.8
10/19	Bloomberg Consumer Comfort	—	51.1	49.5
10/19	Bloomberg Economic Expectations	—	47.5	51.5
10/19	Leading Index	0.10%	—	0.40%
10/19-10/20	Monthly Budget Statement	$6.0b	—	$33.4b
10/20	Existing Home Sales	5.30m	—	5.35m
10/20	Existing Home Sales MoM	-0.90%	—	-1.70%

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