October 20, 2020 Headlines

Treasury yields are higher and steeper today with no obvious catalyst driving the move. There has been increased discussion of a “Blue Wave” on election day where Democrats win control of the White House and Senate (and maintain control of the House), which would presumably lead to an increase in near-term spending/stimulus and a steeper yield curve. Regarding the latter, it’s difficult to imagine significant curve steepening with the Fed still holding dry powder (i.e., yield curve control) and the economic outlook still uncertain. In other news, The Justice Department is expected to sue Google today for allegedly violating antitrust laws related to its search engine business, where it controls approximately 90% of the U.S. market.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
10/19/20NAHB Housing Market Index838583
10/20/20Housing Starts1465k1415k1416k1388k
10/20/20Housing Starts MoM3.50%1.90%-5.10%-6.70%
10/20/20Building Permits1520k1553k1470k1476k
10/20/20Building Permits MoM3.00%5.20%-0.90%-0.50%
10/21/20MBA Mortgage Applications-0.70%
10/21/20U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
10/22/20Initial Jobless Claims870k898k
10/22/20Continuing Claims9625k10018k
10/22/20Bloomberg Economic Expectations41.5
10/22/20Bloomberg Consumer Comfort48.2
10/22/20Leading Index0.60%1.20%
10/22/20Existing Home Sales6.30m6.00m
10/22/20Existing Home Sales MoM5.00%2.40%
10/22/20Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity1111
10/23/20Markit US Manufacturing PMI53.553.2
10/23/20Markit US Services PMI54.654.6
10/23/20Markit US Composite PMI54.3

 

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