October 20, 2020 Headlines

Treasury yields are higher and steeper today with no obvious catalyst driving the move. There has been increased discussion of a “Blue Wave” on election day where Democrats win control of the White House and Senate (and maintain control of the House), which would presumably lead to an increase in near-term spending/stimulus and a steeper yield curve. Regarding the latter, it’s difficult to imagine significant curve steepening with the Fed still holding dry powder (i.e., yield curve control) and the economic outlook still uncertain. In other news, The Justice Department is expected to sue Google today for allegedly violating antitrust laws related to its search engine business, where it controls approximately 90% of the U.S. market.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
10/19/20 NAHB Housing Market Index 83 85 83
10/20/20 Housing Starts 1465k 1415k 1416k 1388k
10/20/20 Housing Starts MoM 3.50% 1.90% -5.10% -6.70%
10/20/20 Building Permits 1520k 1553k 1470k 1476k
10/20/20 Building Permits MoM 3.00% 5.20% -0.90% -0.50%
10/21/20 MBA Mortgage Applications -0.70%
10/21/20 U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
10/22/20 Initial Jobless Claims 870k 898k
10/22/20 Continuing Claims 9625k 10018k
10/22/20 Bloomberg Economic Expectations 41.5
10/22/20 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 48.2
10/22/20 Leading Index 0.60% 1.20%
10/22/20 Existing Home Sales 6.30m 6.00m
10/22/20 Existing Home Sales MoM 5.00% 2.40%
10/22/20 Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity 11 11
10/23/20 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 53.5 53.2
10/23/20 Markit US Services PMI 54.6 54.6
10/23/20 Markit US Composite PMI 54.3


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