October 21, 2020 Headlines

Progress in fiscal stimulus negotiations between House Democrats and the White House is contributing to higher and steeper Treasury yields this morning. Leaders from both sides said they are very close to an agreement, reportedly in the neighborhood of $2 trillion, but the wild card in this is support from Senate Republicans. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell reportedly warned White House officials that a deal of that size might split his caucus ahead of the Amy Coney Barret vote and the upcoming election.

Mortgage application activity cooled for the second straight week according to the MBA Mortgage Market Index. Overall application activity fell 0.6% last week, driven by a 2.1% decline in purchase applications. Refinance applications rose 0.2% last week following a 0.3% decline the prior week. The average 30-year and 15-year fixed rates were essentially unchanged for the third consecutive week at 3.02% and 2.61%, respectively.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
10/19/20NAHB Housing Market Index838583
10/20/20Housing Starts1465k1415k1416k1388k
10/20/20Housing Starts MoM3.50%1.90%-5.10%-6.70%
10/20/20Building Permits1520k1553k1470k1476k
10/20/20Building Permits MoM3.00%5.20%-0.90%-0.50%
10/21/20MBA Mortgage Applications-0.60%-0.70%
10/21/20U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
10/22/20Initial Jobless Claims870k898k
10/22/20Continuing Claims9625k10018k
10/22/20Bloomberg Economic Expectations41.5
10/22/20Bloomberg Consumer Comfort48.2
10/22/20Leading Index0.60%1.20%
10/22/20Existing Home Sales6.30m6.00m
10/22/20Existing Home Sales MoM5.00%2.40%
10/22/20Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity1111
10/23/20Markit US Manufacturing PMI53.553.2
10/23/20Markit US Services PMI54.654.6
10/23/20Markit US Composite PMI54.3

 

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