October 21, 2020 Headlines

Progress in fiscal stimulus negotiations between House Democrats and the White House is contributing to higher and steeper Treasury yields this morning. Leaders from both sides said they are very close to an agreement, reportedly in the neighborhood of $2 trillion, but the wild card in this is support from Senate Republicans. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell reportedly warned White House officials that a deal of that size might split his caucus ahead of the Amy Coney Barret vote and the upcoming election.

Mortgage application activity cooled for the second straight week according to the MBA Mortgage Market Index. Overall application activity fell 0.6% last week, driven by a 2.1% decline in purchase applications. Refinance applications rose 0.2% last week following a 0.3% decline the prior week. The average 30-year and 15-year fixed rates were essentially unchanged for the third consecutive week at 3.02% and 2.61%, respectively.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
10/19/20 NAHB Housing Market Index 83 85 83 —
10/20/20 Housing Starts 1465k 1415k 1416k 1388k
10/20/20 Housing Starts MoM 3.50% 1.90% -5.10% -6.70%
10/20/20 Building Permits 1520k 1553k 1470k 1476k
10/20/20 Building Permits MoM 3.00% 5.20% -0.90% -0.50%
10/21/20 MBA Mortgage Applications — -0.60% -0.70% —
10/21/20 U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
10/22/20 Initial Jobless Claims 870k — 898k —
10/22/20 Continuing Claims 9625k — 10018k —
10/22/20 Bloomberg Economic Expectations — — 41.5 —
10/22/20 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort — — 48.2 —
10/22/20 Leading Index 0.60% — 1.20% —
10/22/20 Existing Home Sales 6.30m — 6.00m —
10/22/20 Existing Home Sales MoM 5.00% — 2.40% —
10/22/20 Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity 11 — 11 —
10/23/20 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 53.5 — 53.2 —
10/23/20 Markit US Services PMI 54.6 — 54.6 —
10/23/20 Markit US Composite PMI — — 54.3 —

 

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