October 21, 2020 Headlines

Progress in fiscal stimulus negotiations between House Democrats and the White House is contributing to higher and steeper Treasury yields this morning. Leaders from both sides said they are very close to an agreement, reportedly in the neighborhood of $2 trillion, but the wild card in this is support from Senate Republicans. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell reportedly warned White House officials that a deal of that size might split his caucus ahead of the Amy Coney Barret vote and the upcoming election.

Mortgage application activity cooled for the second straight week according to the MBA Mortgage Market Index. Overall application activity fell 0.6% last week, driven by a 2.1% decline in purchase applications. Refinance applications rose 0.2% last week following a 0.3% decline the prior week. The average 30-year and 15-year fixed rates were essentially unchanged for the third consecutive week at 3.02% and 2.61%, respectively.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
10/19/20NAHB Housing Market Index838583—
10/20/20Housing Starts1465k1415k1416k1388k
10/20/20Housing Starts MoM3.50%1.90%-5.10%-6.70%
10/20/20Building Permits1520k1553k1470k1476k
10/20/20Building Permits MoM3.00%5.20%-0.90%-0.50%
10/21/20MBA Mortgage Applications—-0.60%-0.70%—
10/21/20U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
10/22/20Initial Jobless Claims870k—898k—
10/22/20Continuing Claims9625k—10018k—
10/22/20Bloomberg Economic Expectations——41.5—
10/22/20Bloomberg Consumer Comfort——48.2—
10/22/20Leading Index0.60%—1.20%—
10/22/20Existing Home Sales6.30m—6.00m—
10/22/20Existing Home Sales MoM5.00%—2.40%—
10/22/20Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity11—11—
10/23/20Markit US Manufacturing PMI53.5—53.2—
10/23/20Markit US Services PMI54.6—54.6—
10/23/20Markit US Composite PMI——54.3—

 

Subscribe Today!

Subscribe to our email list and get the latest articles and announcements from ALM First.

Subscribe

Recent Articles

ALM First offers investment advisory services through ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC, which is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC nor does it indicate that the firm has attained a particular level of skill or ability. The information contained herein does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation for you to purchase or sell any specific security. You are solely responsible for reviewing the content and for any actions you take or choose not to take based on your review of such content.Information contained herein was derived from third party sources as indicated. While such information is believed to be reliable, no representation or warranty is made concerning the accuracy of any information presented. We have not and will not independently verify this information. Where such sources include opinions and projections, such opinions and projections should be ascribed only to the applicable third party source and not to ALM First.Statements herein that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance are forward-looking statements. Such “forward-looking” statements are based on various assumptions, which assumptions may not prove to be correct. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that such assumptions and statements will accurately predict future events or actual performance. No representation or warranty can be given that the estimates, opinions or assumptions made herein will prove to be accurate. Any projections and forward-looking statements included herein should be considered speculative and are qualified in their entirety by the information and risks disclosed in the confidential offering document. Actual results for any period may or may not approximate such forward-looking statements. No representations or warranties whatsoever are made by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC or any other person or entity as to the future profitability of investments recommended by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC.