October 21, 2021 Headlines

The directional bias for Treasury yields continues to be higher and steeper, with yields 2 basis points higher across the curve following a relatively quiet overnight trading session. Inflation and monetary policy remain the major themes in fixed income markets. Fed Vice Chair Randal Quarles became the third member of the board of governors this week to express concern over inflation. While acknowledging the risks to employment and economic growth of acting too early, Quarles said he thinks “we might have to reassess the speed with which we would be thinking about raising interest rates” if year-over-year inflation growth persists well above 2.5% into next spring. All eyes will be on Jerome Powell tomorrow morning to see if he reinforces what seems to be a concerted effort by the governors to effectively endorse, or at least not push back on, the recent shift in market pricing for earlier rate hikes.   

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Surv(M) Actual Prior Revised
10/18/21 Industrial Production MoM 0.10% -1.30% 0.40% -0.10%
10/18/21 Capacity Utilization 76.40% 75.20% 76.40% 76.20%
10/18/21 Manufacturing (SIC) Production 0.10% -0.70% 0.20% -0.40%
10/18/21 NAHB Housing Market Index 75 80 76
10/18/21 Total Net TIC Flows $91.0b $126.0b $164.1b
10/18/21 Net Long-term TIC Flows $79.3b $2.0b
10/19/21 Housing Starts 1615k 1555k 1615k 1580k
10/19/21 Building Permits 1680k 1589k 1728k 1721k
10/19/21 Housing Starts MoM 0.00% -1.60% 3.90% 1.20%
10/19/21 Building Permits MoM -2.40% -7.70% 6.00% 5.60%
10/20/21 MBA Mortgage Applications -6.30% 0.20%
10/20/21 U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
10/21/21 Initial Jobless Claims 297k 290k 293k 296k
10/21/21 Continuing Claims 2548k 2481k 2593k 2603k
10/21/21 Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook 25 23.8 30.7
10/21/21 Langer Consumer Comfort 51.2
10/21/21 Leading Index 0.40% 0.90%
10/21/21 Existing Home Sales 6.10m 5.88m
10/21/21 Existing Home Sales MoM 3.70% -2.00%
10/22/21 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 60.5 60.7
10/22/21 Markit US Services PMI 55.2 54.9
10/22/21 Markit US Composite PMI 55
10/22/21 Monthly Budget Statement -$59.0b -$124.6b

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