October 21, 2021 Headlines

The directional bias for Treasury yields continues to be higher and steeper, with yields 2 basis points higher across the curve following a relatively quiet overnight trading session. Inflation and monetary policy remain the major themes in fixed income markets. Fed Vice Chair Randal Quarles became the third member of the board of governors this week to express concern over inflation. While acknowledging the risks to employment and economic growth of acting too early, Quarles said he thinks “we might have to reassess the speed with which we would be thinking about raising interest rates” if year-over-year inflation growth persists well above 2.5% into next spring. All eyes will be on Jerome Powell tomorrow morning to see if he reinforces what seems to be a concerted effort by the governors to effectively endorse, or at least not push back on, the recent shift in market pricing for earlier rate hikes.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date	Event	Surv(M)	Actual	Prior	Revised
10/18/21	Industrial Production MoM	0.10%	-1.30%	0.40%	-0.10%
10/18/21	Capacity Utilization	76.40%	75.20%	76.40%	76.20%
10/18/21	Manufacturing (SIC) Production	0.10%	-0.70%	0.20%	-0.40%
10/18/21	NAHB Housing Market Index	75	80	76	—
10/18/21	Total Net TIC Flows	—	$91.0b	$126.0b	$164.1b
10/18/21	Net Long-term TIC Flows	—	$79.3b	$2.0b	—
10/19/21	Housing Starts	1615k	1555k	1615k	1580k
10/19/21	Building Permits	1680k	1589k	1728k	1721k
10/19/21	Housing Starts MoM	0.00%	-1.60%	3.90%	1.20%
10/19/21	Building Permits MoM	-2.40%	-7.70%	6.00%	5.60%
10/20/21	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	-6.30%	0.20%	—
10/20/21	U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
10/21/21	Initial Jobless Claims	297k	290k	293k	296k
10/21/21	Continuing Claims	2548k	2481k	2593k	2603k
10/21/21	Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook	25	23.8	30.7	—
10/21/21	Langer Consumer Comfort	—	—	51.2	—
10/21/21	Leading Index	0.40%	—	0.90%	—
10/21/21	Existing Home Sales	6.10m	—	5.88m	—
10/21/21	Existing Home Sales MoM	3.70%	—	-2.00%	—
10/22/21	Markit US Manufacturing PMI	60.5	—	60.7	—
10/22/21	Markit US Services PMI	55.2	—	54.9	—
10/22/21	Markit US Composite PMI	—	—	55	—
10/22/21	Monthly Budget Statement	-$59.0b	—	-$124.6b	—

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