October 22, 2020 Headlines

A modest risk-off trade in global markets is pushing Treasury yields lower this morning. In Europe, rising Covid cases and concerns that another lockdown may be imminent pushed Germany’s consumer confidence index into negative territory. Yesterday’s announcement by U.S. officials that Russian and Iran have both attempted to interfere with the presidential election is also weighing somewhat on market sentiment today, although it shouldn’t be too much of a shock at this point.

Initial jobless claims fell to 787,000 last week, well below expectations, and continuing claims fell to 8.37 million for the week ended October 10, also well below expectations. As noted last week, the data have been impacted for several weeks by California not reporting their figures while investigating irregularities in its figures. In the meantime, the Labor Department held the California numbers unchanged at the last posted level. Today’s report included updated and revised numbers from California, which were material (continuing claims fell from 2.8 million to 1.9 million). Also worth noting again is the fact that some of the decline in continuing claims is attributable to expiring state-level benefits, and for those who shift to Federal extended benefits, they are not included in this report.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
10/19/20 NAHB Housing Market Index 83 85 83 —
10/20/20 Housing Starts 1465k 1415k 1416k 1388k
10/20/20 Housing Starts MoM 3.50% 1.90% -5.10% -6.70%
10/20/20 Building Permits 1520k 1553k 1470k 1476k
10/20/20 Building Permits MoM 3.00% 5.20% -0.90% -0.50%
10/21/20 MBA Mortgage Applications — -0.60% -0.70% —
10/21/20 U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
10/22/20 Initial Jobless Claims 870k 787k 898k 842k
10/22/20 Continuing Claims 9625k 8373k 10018k 9397k
10/22/20 Bloomberg Economic Expectations — — 41.5 —
10/22/20 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort — — 48.2 —
10/22/20 Leading Index 0.60% — 1.20% —
10/22/20 Existing Home Sales 6.30m — 6.00m —
10/22/20 Existing Home Sales MoM 5.00% — 2.40% —
10/22/20 Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity 11 — 11 —
10/23/20 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 53.5 — 53.2 —
10/23/20 Markit US Services PMI 54.6 — 54.6 —
10/23/20 Markit US Composite PMI — — 54.3 —

 

 

Subscribe Today!

Subscribe to our email list and get the latest articles and announcements from ALM First.

Subscribe
ALM First offers investment advisory services through ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC, which is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC nor does it indicate that the firm has attained a particular level of skill or ability. The information contained herein does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation for you to purchase or sell any specific security. You are solely responsible for reviewing the content and for any actions you take or choose not to take based on your review of such content. Information contained herein was derived from third party sources as indicated. While such information is believed to be reliable, no representation or warranty is made concerning the accuracy of any information presented. We have not and will not independently verify this information. Where such sources include opinions and projections, such opinions and projections should be ascribed only to the applicable third party source and not to ALM First. Statements herein that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance are forward-looking statements. Such “forward-looking” statements are based on various assumptions, which assumptions may not prove to be correct. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that such assumptions and statements will accurately predict future events or actual performance. No representation or warranty can be given that the estimates, opinions or assumptions made herein will prove to be accurate. Any projections and forward-looking statements included herein should be considered speculative and are qualified in their entirety by the information and risks disclosed in the confidential offering document. Actual results for any period may or may not approximate such forward-looking statements. No representations or warranties whatsoever are made by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC or any other person or entity as to the future profitability of investments recommended by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC.