A modest risk-off trade in global markets is pushing Treasury yields lower this morning. In Europe, rising Covid cases and concerns that another lockdown may be imminent pushed Germany’s consumer confidence index into negative territory. Yesterday’s announcement by U.S. officials that Russian and Iran have both attempted to interfere with the presidential election is also weighing somewhat on market sentiment today, although it shouldn’t be too much of a shock at this point.
Initial jobless claims fell to 787,000 last week, well below expectations, and continuing claims fell to 8.37 million for the week ended October 10, also well below expectations. As noted last week, the data have been impacted for several weeks by California not reporting their figures while investigating irregularities in its figures. In the meantime, the Labor Department held the California numbers unchanged at the last posted level. Today’s report included updated and revised numbers from California, which were material (continuing claims fell from 2.8 million to 1.9 million). Also worth noting again is the fact that some of the decline in continuing claims is attributable to expiring state-level benefits, and for those who shift to Federal extended benefits, they are not included in this report.
Chief Investment Officer
|10/19/20||NAHB Housing Market Index||83||85||83||—|
|10/20/20||Housing Starts MoM||3.50%||1.90%||-5.10%||-6.70%|
|10/20/20||Building Permits MoM||3.00%||5.20%||-0.90%||-0.50%|
|10/21/20||MBA Mortgage Applications||—||-0.60%||-0.70%||—|
|10/21/20||U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book|
|10/22/20||Initial Jobless Claims||870k||787k||898k||842k|
|10/22/20||Bloomberg Economic Expectations||—||—||41.5||—|
|10/22/20||Bloomberg Consumer Comfort||—||—||48.2||—|
|10/22/20||Existing Home Sales||6.30m||—||6.00m||—|
|10/22/20||Existing Home Sales MoM||5.00%||—||2.40%||—|
|10/22/20||Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity||11||—||11||—|
|10/23/20||Markit US Manufacturing PMI||53.5||—||53.2||—|
|10/23/20||Markit US Services PMI||54.6||—||54.6||—|
|10/23/20||Markit US Composite PMI||—||—||54.3||—|
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