Treasuries prices are unchanged to slightly higher despite a big rally in Chinese stocks overnight (Shanghai +4.1%), which was sparked by an announcement of future tax cuts. Following the rally, the Shanghai Composite is still down 20% on the year, and the country still faces deeper economic challenges amid trade tensions with the United States. In Europe, investors appear relieved that Moody’s didn’t downgrade Italy to junk status. The country’s rating was cut to Baa3 (one notch above junk) with a stable outlook. This week’s economic calendar is headlined by the first estimate of Q3 GDP (Friday), and September durable goods orders will be released on Thursday. For GDP, median forecast on Bloomberg is a 3.4% headline growth rate. Several Fed leaders will be speaking this week as well, including four separate appearances tomorrow (Kashkari, Bostic, Kaplan, and George).

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group


10/22Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index0.210.170.18
10/23Richmond Fed Manufact. Index2429
10/24MBA Mortgage Applications-7.10%
10/24FHFA House Price Index MoM0.30%0.20%
10/24Markit US Manufacturing PMI55.355.6
10/24Markit US Services PMI5453.5
10/24Markit US Composite PMI53.9
10/24New Home Sales625k629k
10/24New Home Sales MoM-0.60%3.50%
10/24U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
10/25Advance Goods Trade Balance-$75.1b-$75.8b
10/25Wholesale Inventories MoM0.50%1.00%
10/25Retail Inventories MoM0.70%
10/25Durable Goods Orders-1.50%4.40%
10/25Durables Ex Transportation0.40%0.00%
10/25Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.50%-0.90%
10/25Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.40%-0.20%
10/25Initial Jobless Claims213k210k
10/25Continuing Claims1652k1640k
10/25Bloomberg Consumer Comfort60.8
10/25Pending Home Sales MoM0.00%-1.80%
10/25Pending Home Sales NSA YoY-1.90%-2.50%
10/25Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity1413
10/26GDP Annualized QoQ3.40%4.20%
10/26Personal Consumption3.30%3.80%
10/26GDP Price Index2.10%3.00%
10/26Core PCE QoQ1.70%2.10%
10/26U. of Mich. Sentiment9999
10/26U. of Mich. Current Conditions114.4
10/26U. of Mich. Expectations89.1
10/26U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.80%
10/26U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.30%
10/29Personal Income0.40%0.30%
10/29Personal Spending0.40%0.30%
10/29Real Personal Spending0.20%
10/29PCE Deflator MoM0.10%0.10%
10/29PCE Deflator YoY2.20%
10/29PCE Core MoM0.10%0.00%
10/29PCE Core YoY2.00%2.00%
10/29Dallas Fed Manf. Activity2928.1