Treasuries prices are unchanged to slightly higher despite a big rally in Chinese stocks overnight (Shanghai +4.1%), which was sparked by an announcement of future tax cuts. Following the rally, the Shanghai Composite is still down 20% on the year, and the country still faces deeper economic challenges amid trade tensions with the United States. In Europe, investors appear relieved that Moody’s didn’t downgrade Italy to junk status. The country’s rating was cut to Baa3 (one notch above junk) with a stable outlook. This week’s economic calendar is headlined by the first estimate of Q3 GDP (Friday), and September durable goods orders will be released on Thursday. For GDP, median forecast on Bloomberg is a 3.4% headline growth rate. Several Fed leaders will be speaking this week as well, including four separate appearances tomorrow (Kashkari, Bostic, Kaplan, and George).
Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior |
| 10/22 | Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index | 0.21 | 0.17 | 0.18 |
| 10/23 | Richmond Fed Manufact. Index | 24 | — | 29 |
| 10/24 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | -7.10% |
| 10/24 | FHFA House Price Index MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.20% |
| 10/24 | Markit US Manufacturing PMI | 55.3 | — | 55.6 |
| 10/24 | Markit US Services PMI | 54 | — | 53.5 |
| 10/24 | Markit US Composite PMI | — | — | 53.9 |
| 10/24 | New Home Sales | 625k | — | 629k |
| 10/24 | New Home Sales MoM | -0.60% | — | 3.50% |
| 10/24 | U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book | |||
| 10/25 | Advance Goods Trade Balance | -$75.1b | — | -$75.8b |
| 10/25 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.50% | — | 1.00% |
| 10/25 | Retail Inventories MoM | — | — | 0.70% |
| 10/25 | Durable Goods Orders | -1.50% | — | 4.40% |
| 10/25 | Durables Ex Transportation | 0.40% | — | 0.00% |
| 10/25 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | 0.50% | — | -0.90% |
| 10/25 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | 0.40% | — | -0.20% |
| 10/25 | Initial Jobless Claims | 213k | — | 210k |
| 10/25 | Continuing Claims | 1652k | — | 1640k |
| 10/25 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | — | 60.8 |
| 10/25 | Pending Home Sales MoM | 0.00% | — | -1.80% |
| 10/25 | Pending Home Sales NSA YoY | -1.90% | — | -2.50% |
| 10/25 | Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity | 14 | — | 13 |
| 10/26 | GDP Annualized QoQ | 3.40% | — | 4.20% |
| 10/26 | Personal Consumption | 3.30% | — | 3.80% |
| 10/26 | GDP Price Index | 2.10% | — | 3.00% |
| 10/26 | Core PCE QoQ | 1.70% | — | 2.10% |
| 10/26 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 99 | — | 99 |
| 10/26 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | — | — | 114.4 |
| 10/26 | U. of Mich. Expectations | — | — | 89.1 |
| 10/26 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.80% |
| 10/26 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.30% |
| 10/29 | Personal Income | 0.40% | — | 0.30% |
| 10/29 | Personal Spending | 0.40% | — | 0.30% |
| 10/29 | Real Personal Spending | — | — | 0.20% |
| 10/29 | PCE Deflator MoM | 0.10% | — | 0.10% |
| 10/29 | PCE Deflator YoY | — | — | 2.20% |
| 10/29 | PCE Core MoM | 0.10% | — | 0.00% |
| 10/29 | PCE Core YoY | 2.00% | — | 2.00% |
| 10/29 | Dallas Fed Manf. Activity | 29 | — | 28.1 |