Treasury prices are trading lower this morning in sympathy with European government bonds (particularly German bunds), which are weaker on better PMI data in the region. Eurozone manufacturing PMI was particularly strong, and for the various PMI components, employment metrics rose at the fastest pace in a decade. Inflation metrics were also positive for both the manufacturing and servicing sectors, rising to 6+ year highs. Global equity markets are mostly higher, and S&P 500 futures are currently up 5 points. The 10-year Treasury yield is back above 2.40%, which technical strategists have considered a strong support level in recent weeks.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

10/23Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index-0.130.17-0.31
10/24Markit US Manufacturing PMI53.453.1
10/24Markit US Services PMI55.255.3
10/24Markit US Composite PMI54.8
10/24Richmond Fed Manufact. Index1719
10/25MBA Mortgage Applications3.60%
10/25Durable Goods Orders1.00%2.00%
10/25Durables Ex Transportation0.50%0.50%
10/25Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.30%1.10%
10/25Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air-0.10%1.10%
10/25FHFA House Price Index MoM0.40%0.20%
10/25New Home Sales554k560k
10/25New Home Sales MoM-1.10%-3.40%
10/26Wholesale Inventories MoM0.40%0.90%
10/26Initial Jobless Claims235k222k
10/26Continuing Claims1895k1888k
10/26Advance Goods Trade Balance-$64.0b-$62.9b
10/26Retail Inventories MoM0.70%
10/26Bloomberg Consumer Comfort51.1
10/26Pending Home Sales MoM0.40%-2.60%
10/26Pending Home Sales NSA YoY-3.10%
10/26Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity1717
10/27GDP Annualized QoQ2.50%3.10%
10/27Personal Consumption2.20%3.30%
10/27GDP Price Index1.70%1.00%
10/27Core PCE QoQ1.30%0.90%
10/27U. of Mich. Sentiment100.7101.1
10/27U. of Mich. Current Conditions116.4
10/27U. of Mich. Expectations91.3
10/27U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.30%
10/27U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.40%