The upward momentum of Treasury yields continued overnight on better European economic data and ahead of today’s 2-year and 5-year note auctions.  The 10-year yield touched 2.47 overnight and is currently holding at 2.45%.  Since the first week of September, 2-year, 5-year, and 10-year yields are up 34 bps, 44 bps, and 42 bps, respectively. As such, the slope of the yield curve (2-year/10-year spread) is only 8 bps steeper at 85 bps. Another factor contributing to today’s weakness in rates is headline reports that John Taylor won a Senate straw poll for preferred Fed Chair nominee. Trump reportedly queried Senate Republicans on the topic when visiting Capitol Hill yesterday.  Equity markets are a little more quiet today, with mixed results in Asia and Europe. S&P 500 futures are down 6 points at the moment.  As a reminder, ALM First will be hosting a bi-weekly market update webinar at 11:30 a.m. ET today. This regular series occurs on the 2nd and 4th Wednesday of each month, and more details can be found under Education and Events on our website.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

DateEventSurv(M)ActualPrior
10/23Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index-0.130.17-0.31
10/24Markit US Manufacturing PMI53.454.553.1
10/24Markit US Services PMI55.255.955.3
10/24Markit US Composite PMI55.754.8
10/24Richmond Fed Manufact. Index171219
10/25MBA Mortgage Applications-4.60%3.60%
10/25Durable Goods Orders1.00%2.20%2.00%
10/25Durables Ex Transportation0.50%0.70%0.50%
10/25Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.30%1.30%1.10%
10/25Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.10%0.70%1.10%
10/25FHFA House Price Index MoM0.40%0.70%0.20%
10/25New Home Sales554k667k560k
10/25New Home Sales MoM-1.10%18.90%-3.40%
10/26Wholesale Inventories MoM0.40%0.90%
10/26Initial Jobless Claims235k222k
10/26Continuing Claims1890k1888k
10/26Advance Goods Trade Balance-$64.0b-$62.9b
10/26Retail Inventories MoM0.70%
10/26Bloomberg Consumer Comfort51.1
10/26Pending Home Sales MoM0.30%-2.60%
10/26Pending Home Sales NSA YoY-4.20%-3.10%
10/26Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity1717
10/27GDP Annualized QoQ2.50%3.10%
10/27Personal Consumption2.10%3.30%
10/27GDP Price Index1.70%1.00%
10/27Core PCE QoQ1.30%0.90%
10/27U. of Mich. Sentiment100.7101.1
10/27U. of Mich. Current Conditions116.4
10/27U. of Mich. Expectations91.3
10/27U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.30%
10/27U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.40%