October 25, 2021 Headlines

The week begins with more steepening pressure in the Treasury market, with long-end yields up 2-4 basis points in early trading. Inflation worries remain at the forefront, and oil and gasoline futures are up more than 1% on the day. A Financial Times article highlights recent comments from several large corporations warning of more price increases due to challenges and costs of sourcing raw materials. In the article, Chipotle CFO Jack Hartung was asked which ingredients and supplies they were having trouble sourcing, to which he replied: “All of them.” This week’s economic calendar is headlined by the first look at Q3 GDP on Thursday, and given recent concerns of non-transitory inflation pressures, the release of the Q3 Employment Cost Index (ECI) on Friday will be closely watched as well. ECI is a preferred measure of wage inflation for Fed leaders because it includes bonus income and other benefits.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

10/25/2021Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index0.2-
10/25/2021Dallas Fed Manf. Activity6.24.6
10/26/2021FHFA House Price Index MoM1.50%1.40%
10/26/2021S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA1.50%1.55%
10/26/2021S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA20.00%19.95%
10/26/2021S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA19.70%
10/26/2021New Home Sales755k740k
10/26/2021New Home Sales MoM2.00%1.50%
10/26/2021Conf. Board Consumer Confidence108.5109.3
10/26/2021Conf. Board Present Situation143.4
10/26/2021Conf. Board Expectations86.6
10/26/2021Richmond Fed Manufact. Index5-3
10/27/2021MBA Mortgage Applications-6.30%
10/27/2021Advance Goods Trade Balance-$88.3b-$87.6b
10/27/2021Wholesale Inventories MoM1.00%1.20%
10/27/2021Retail Inventories MoM0.30%0.10%
10/27/2021Durable Goods Orders-1.00%1.80%
10/27/2021Durables Ex Transportation0.40%0.30%
10/27/2021Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.50%0.60%
10/27/2021Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.50%0.80%
10/28/2021Initial Jobless Claims290k290k
10/28/2021Continuing Claims2410k2481k
10/28/2021GDP Annualized QoQ2.80%6.70%
10/28/2021Personal Consumption0.80%12.00%
10/28/2021GDP Price Index5.20%6.10%
10/28/2021Core PCE QoQ4.40%6.10%
10/28/2021Langer Consumer Comfort49.7
10/28/2021Pending Home Sales MoM0.50%8.10%
10/28/2021Pending Home Sales NSA YoY-6.30%
10/28/2021Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity1922
10/29/2021Employment Cost Index0.90%0.70%
10/29/2021Personal Income-0.20%0.20%
10/29/2021Personal Spending0.60%0.80%
10/29/2021Real Personal Spending0.30%0.40%
10/29/2021PCE Deflator MoM0.30%0.40%
10/29/2021PCE Deflator YoY4.40%4.30%
10/29/2021PCE Core Deflator MoM0.20%0.30%
10/29/2021PCE Core Deflator YoY3.70%3.60%
10/29/2021MNI Chicago PMI6464.7
10/29/2021U. of Mich. Sentiment71.471.4
10/29/2021U. of Mich. Current Conditions77.9
10/29/2021U. of Mich. Expectations67.2
10/29/2021U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation4.80%
10/29/2021U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.80%

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