October 25, 2021 Headlines

The week begins with more steepening pressure in the Treasury market, with long-end yields up 2-4 basis points in early trading. Inflation worries remain at the forefront, and oil and gasoline futures are up more than 1% on the day. A Financial Times article highlights recent comments from several large corporations warning of more price increases due to challenges and costs of sourcing raw materials. In the article, Chipotle CFO Jack Hartung was asked which ingredients and supplies they were having trouble sourcing, to which he replied: “All of them.” This week’s economic calendar is headlined by the first look at Q3 GDP on Thursday, and given recent concerns of non-transitory inflation pressures, the release of the Q3 Employment Cost Index (ECI) on Friday will be closely watched as well. ECI is a preferred measure of wage inflation for Fed leaders because it includes bonus income and other benefits.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
10/25/2021 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index 0.2 -0.13 0.29 0.05
10/25/2021 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity 6.2 — 4.6 —
10/26/2021 FHFA House Price Index MoM 1.50% — 1.40% —
10/26/2021 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA 1.50% — 1.55% —
10/26/2021 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA 20.00% — 19.95% —
10/26/2021 S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA — — 19.70% —
10/26/2021 New Home Sales 755k — 740k —
10/26/2021 New Home Sales MoM 2.00% — 1.50% —
10/26/2021 Conf. Board Consumer Confidence 108.5 — 109.3 —
10/26/2021 Conf. Board Present Situation — — 143.4 —
10/26/2021 Conf. Board Expectations — — 86.6 —
10/26/2021 Richmond Fed Manufact. Index 5 — -3 —
10/27/2021 MBA Mortgage Applications — — -6.30% —
10/27/2021 Advance Goods Trade Balance -$88.3b — -$87.6b —
10/27/2021 Wholesale Inventories MoM 1.00% — 1.20% —
10/27/2021 Retail Inventories MoM 0.30% — 0.10% —
10/27/2021 Durable Goods Orders -1.00% — 1.80% —
10/27/2021 Durables Ex Transportation 0.40% — 0.30% —
10/27/2021 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air 0.50% — 0.60% —
10/27/2021 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air 0.50% — 0.80% —
10/28/2021 Initial Jobless Claims 290k — 290k —
10/28/2021 Continuing Claims 2410k — 2481k —
10/28/2021 GDP Annualized QoQ 2.80% — 6.70% —
10/28/2021 Personal Consumption 0.80% — 12.00% —
10/28/2021 GDP Price Index 5.20% — 6.10% —
10/28/2021 Core PCE QoQ 4.40% — 6.10% —
10/28/2021 Langer Consumer Comfort — — 49.7 —
10/28/2021 Pending Home Sales MoM 0.50% — 8.10% —
10/28/2021 Pending Home Sales NSA YoY — — -6.30% —
10/28/2021 Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity 19 — 22 —
10/29/2021 Employment Cost Index 0.90% — 0.70% —
10/29/2021 Personal Income -0.20% — 0.20% —
10/29/2021 Personal Spending 0.60% — 0.80% —
10/29/2021 Real Personal Spending 0.30% — 0.40% —
10/29/2021 PCE Deflator MoM 0.30% — 0.40% —
10/29/2021 PCE Deflator YoY 4.40% — 4.30% —
10/29/2021 PCE Core Deflator MoM 0.20% — 0.30% —
10/29/2021 PCE Core Deflator YoY 3.70% — 3.60% —
10/29/2021 MNI Chicago PMI 64 — 64.7 —
10/29/2021 U. of Mich. Sentiment 71.4 — 71.4 —
10/29/2021 U. of Mich. Current Conditions — — 77.9 —
10/29/2021 U. of Mich. Expectations — — 67.2 —
10/29/2021 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation — — 4.80% —
10/29/2021 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation — — 2.80% —

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