The markets are fairly quiet ahead of release of today’s ECB decision, particularly plans for its asset purchase program (QE) going forward. The general market expectation is for the ECB to cut its current pace of purchases in half to €30 billion per month and extend the program another 9 months. Any major deviations from those expectations would likely elicit a sharp response in the markets. Treasury prices are currently unchanged to slightly higher, and S&P 500 futures are up 2 points at the moment.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

10/23Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index-0.130.17-0.31
10/24Markit US Manufacturing PMI53.454.553.1
10/24Markit US Services PMI55.255.955.3
10/24Markit US Composite PMI55.754.8
10/24Richmond Fed Manufact. Index171219
10/25MBA Mortgage Applications-4.60%3.60%
10/25Durable Goods Orders1.00%2.20%2.00%
10/25Durables Ex Transportation0.50%0.70%0.50%
10/25Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.30%1.30%1.10%
10/25Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.10%0.70%1.10%
10/25FHFA House Price Index MoM0.40%0.70%0.20%
10/25New Home Sales554k667k560k
10/25New Home Sales MoM-1.10%18.90%-3.40%
10/26Initial Jobless Claims235k233k222k
10/26Continuing Claims1890k1893k1888k
10/26Advance Goods Trade Balance-$64.0b-$64.1b-$62.9b
10/26Wholesale Inventories MoM0.40%0.30%0.90%
10/26Retail Inventories MoM-1.00%0.70%
10/26Bloomberg Consumer Comfort51.1
10/26Pending Home Sales MoM0.50%-2.60%
10/26Pending Home Sales NSA YoY-4.20%-3.10%
10/26Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity1717
10/27GDP Annualized QoQ2.60%3.10%
10/27Personal Consumption2.10%3.30%
10/27GDP Price Index1.70%1.00%
10/27Core PCE QoQ1.30%0.90%
10/27U. of Mich. Sentiment100.7101.1
10/27U. of Mich. Current Conditions116.4
10/27U. of Mich. Expectations91.3
10/27U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.30%
10/27U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.40%