October 26, 2021 Headlines

U.S. equity futures are higher to start the day on corporate earnings optimism, and in Treasuries, front-end and intermediate yields are 1-2 basis points higher. Case-Shiller home prices will be released later this morning, and the 20-city index is expected to show a 20% year-over-year increase in single-family prices as of August month-end, which would be another record high since the index began in January 2001. Surges in rent prices have also made national headlines in recent weeks, further fueling inflation concerns. It’s worth noting that residential rent prices have a much bigger impact on the core CPI measure than the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge (core PCE), although perhaps that matters less in the larger transitory/non-transitory debate at the Fed.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

10/26/2021FHFA House Price Index MoM1.50%1.40%
10/26/2021S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA1.50%1.55%
10/26/2021S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA20.00%19.95%
10/26/2021S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA19.70%
10/26/2021New Home Sales756k740k
10/26/2021New Home Sales MoM2.20%1.50%
10/26/2021Conf. Board Consumer Confidence108109.3
10/26/2021Conf. Board Present Situation143.4
10/26/2021Conf. Board Expectations86.6
10/26/2021Richmond Fed Manufact. Index5-3
10/27/2021MBA Mortgage Applications-6.30%
10/27/2021Advance Goods Trade Balance-$88.3b-$87.6b
10/27/2021Wholesale Inventories MoM1.00%1.20%
10/27/2021Retail Inventories MoM0.20%0.10%
10/27/2021Durable Goods Orders-1.10%1.80%
10/27/2021Durables Ex Transportation0.40%0.30%
10/27/2021Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.50%0.60%
10/27/2021Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.50%0.80%
10/28/2021Initial Jobless Claims289k290k
10/28/2021Continuing Claims2420k2481k
10/28/2021GDP Annualized QoQ2.60%6.70%
10/28/2021Personal Consumption0.80%12.00%
10/28/2021GDP Price Index5.30%6.10%
10/28/2021Core PCE QoQ4.40%6.10%
10/28/2021Langer Consumer Comfort49.7
10/28/2021Pending Home Sales MoM0.50%8.10%
10/28/2021Pending Home Sales NSA YoY-3.00%-6.30%
10/28/2021Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity1922
10/29/2021Employment Cost Index0.90%0.70%
10/29/2021Personal Income-0.20%0.20%
10/29/2021Personal Spending0.60%0.80%
10/29/2021Real Personal Spending0.30%0.40%
10/29/2021PCE Deflator MoM0.30%0.40%
10/29/2021PCE Deflator YoY4.40%4.30%
10/29/2021PCE Core Deflator MoM0.20%0.30%
10/29/2021PCE Core Deflator YoY3.70%3.60%
10/29/2021MNI Chicago PMI63.564.7
10/29/2021U. of Mich. Sentiment71.471.4
10/29/2021U. of Mich. Current Conditions77.9
10/29/2021U. of Mich. Expectations67.2
10/29/2021U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation4.80%
10/29/2021U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.80%


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