October 26, 2023 Headlines

The first estimate of Q3 GDP growth showed the U.S. economy expanding 4.9% (annualized) versus the prior quarter, the fastest pace since Q4 2021. The topline growth rate was buoyed by a 4% increase in personal consumption, and growth in business inventories added 132 basis points to the overall growth rate. Final sales to private domestic purchases, sometimes referred to as “core GDP,” rose a solid 3.3% in Q3, up from 1.7% the prior quarter. As expected, it was a very strong quarter for the U.S. economy. The immediate market reaction has been a rally in Treasuries, with yields down 3-5 basis points across the curve (9:11am ET). This is perhaps attributable to the fact that Core PCE fell to 2.4% in Q3 (2.5% expected), down from 3.7% the prior quarter. In other news, initial jobless claims rose slightly to 210,000 last week. 

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
10/26/23 Advance Goods Trade Balance -$86.0b -$85.8b -$84.3b -$84.6b
10/26/23 Wholesale Inventories MoM 0.10% 0.00% -0.10%
10/26/23 Retail Inventories MoM 0.20% 0.90% 1.10% 1.10%
10/26/23 GDP Annualized QoQ 4.50% 4.90% 2.10%
10/26/23 Personal Consumption 4.00% 4.00% 0.80%
10/26/23 GDP Price Index 2.70% 3.50% 1.70%
10/26/23 Core PCE Price Index QoQ 2.50% 2.40% 3.70%
10/26/23 Durable Goods Orders 1.90% 4.70% 0.10% -0.10%
10/26/23 Durables Ex Transportation 0.20% 0.50% 0.40% 0.50%
10/26/23 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air 0.00% 0.60% 0.90% 1.10%
10/26/23 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air 0.20% 0.00% 0.70% 0.80%
10/26/23 Initial Jobless Claims 207k 210k 198k 200k
10/26/23 Continuing Claims 1740k 1790k 1734k 1727k
10/26/23 Pending Home Sales MoM -2.00% -7.10%
10/26/23 Pending Home Sales NSA YoY -14.60% -18.80%
10/26/23 Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity -8
10/27/23 Personal Income 0.40% 0.40%
10/27/23 Personal Spending 0.50% 0.40%
10/27/23 Real Personal Spending 0.30% 0.10%
10/27/23 PCE Deflator MoM 0.30% 0.40%
10/27/23 PCE Deflator YoY 3.40% 3.50%
10/27/23 PCE Core Deflator MoM 0.30% 0.10%
10/27/23 PCE Core Deflator YoY 3.70% 3.90%
10/27/23 U. of Mich. Sentiment 63 63
10/27/23 U. of Mich. Current Conditions 66.7
10/27/23 U. of Mich. Expectations 60.7
10/27/23 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation 3.80% 3.80%
10/27/23 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation 3.00% 3.00%
10/27/23 Kansas City Fed Services Activity 2
10/30/23 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity -18.1
10/31/23 Employment Cost Index 1.00% 1.00%
10/31/23 FHFA House Price Index MoM 0.80%
10/31/23 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA 0.87%
10/31/23 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA 0.13%
10/31/23 S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA 0.98%
10/31/23 MNI Chicago PMI 44.1
10/31/23 Conf. Board Consumer Confidence 100 103
10/31/23 Conf. Board Present Situation 147.1
10/31/23 Conf. Board Expectations 73.7
10/31/23 Dallas Fed Services Activity -8.6
11/1/23 MBA Mortgage Applications -1.00%
11/1/23 ADP Employment Change 135k 89k
11/1/23 S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI 50
11/1/23 Construction Spending MoM 0.40% 0.50%
11/1/23 JOLTS Job Openings 9610k
11/1/23 ISM Manufacturing 49 49
11/1/23 ISM Prices Paid 43.8
11/1/23 ISM Employment 51.2
11/1/23 ISM New Orders 49.2
11/1/23 FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) 5.50% 5.50%
11/1/23 FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) 5.25% 5.25%
11/1/23 Interest on Reserve Balances Rate 5.40%
11/1/23 Wards Total Vehicle Sales 15.10m 15.67m
11/2/23 Challenger Job Cuts YoY 58.20%
11/2/23 Nonfarm Productivity 4.00% 3.50%
11/2/23 Unit Labor Costs 1.00% 2.20%
11/2/23 Initial Jobless Claims 210k
11/2/23 Continuing Claims 1790k
11/2/23 Factory Orders 1.00% 1.20%
11/2/23 Factory Orders Ex Trans 1.40%
11/2/23 Durable Goods Orders 4.70%
11/2/23 Durables Ex Transportation 0.50%
11/2/23 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air 0.60%
11/2/23 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air 0.00%

 

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