October 26, 2023 Headlines

The first estimate of Q3 GDP growth showed the U.S. economy expanding 4.9% (annualized) versus the prior quarter, the fastest pace since Q4 2021. The topline growth rate was buoyed by a 4% increase in personal consumption, and growth in business inventories added 132 basis points to the overall growth rate. Final sales to private domestic purchases, sometimes referred to as “core GDP,” rose a solid 3.3% in Q3, up from 1.7% the prior quarter. As expected, it was a very strong quarter for the U.S. economy. The immediate market reaction has been a rally in Treasuries, with yields down 3-5 basis points across the curve (9:11am ET). This is perhaps attributable to the fact that Core PCE fell to 2.4% in Q3 (2.5% expected), down from 3.7% the prior quarter. In other news, initial jobless claims rose slightly to 210,000 last week. 

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
10/26/23Advance Goods Trade Balance-$86.0b-$85.8b-$84.3b-$84.6b
10/26/23Wholesale Inventories MoM0.10%0.00%-0.10%
10/26/23Retail Inventories MoM0.20%0.90%1.10%1.10%
10/26/23GDP Annualized QoQ4.50%4.90%2.10%
10/26/23Personal Consumption4.00%4.00%0.80%
10/26/23GDP Price Index2.70%3.50%1.70%
10/26/23Core PCE Price Index QoQ2.50%2.40%3.70%
10/26/23Durable Goods Orders1.90%4.70%0.10%-0.10%
10/26/23Durables Ex Transportation0.20%0.50%0.40%0.50%
10/26/23Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.00%0.60%0.90%1.10%
10/26/23Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.20%0.00%0.70%0.80%
10/26/23Initial Jobless Claims207k210k198k200k
10/26/23Continuing Claims1740k1790k1734k1727k
10/26/23Pending Home Sales MoM-2.00%-7.10%
10/26/23Pending Home Sales NSA YoY-14.60%-18.80%
10/26/23Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity-8
10/27/23Personal Income0.40%0.40%
10/27/23Personal Spending0.50%0.40%
10/27/23Real Personal Spending0.30%0.10%
10/27/23PCE Deflator MoM0.30%0.40%
10/27/23PCE Deflator YoY3.40%3.50%
10/27/23PCE Core Deflator MoM0.30%0.10%
10/27/23PCE Core Deflator YoY3.70%3.90%
10/27/23U. of Mich. Sentiment6363
10/27/23U. of Mich. Current Conditions66.7
10/27/23U. of Mich. Expectations60.7
10/27/23U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation3.80%3.80%
10/27/23U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation3.00%3.00%
10/27/23Kansas City Fed Services Activity2
10/30/23Dallas Fed Manf. Activity-18.1
10/31/23Employment Cost Index1.00%1.00%
10/31/23FHFA House Price Index MoM0.80%
10/31/23S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA0.87%
10/31/23S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA0.13%
10/31/23S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA0.98%
10/31/23MNI Chicago PMI44.1
10/31/23Conf. Board Consumer Confidence100103
10/31/23Conf. Board Present Situation147.1
10/31/23Conf. Board Expectations73.7
10/31/23Dallas Fed Services Activity-8.6
11/1/23MBA Mortgage Applications-1.00%
11/1/23ADP Employment Change135k89k
11/1/23S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI50
11/1/23Construction Spending MoM0.40%0.50%
11/1/23JOLTS Job Openings9610k
11/1/23ISM Manufacturing4949
11/1/23ISM Prices Paid43.8
11/1/23ISM Employment51.2
11/1/23ISM New Orders49.2
11/1/23FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)5.50%5.50%
11/1/23FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)5.25%5.25%
11/1/23Interest on Reserve Balances Rate5.40%
11/1/23Wards Total Vehicle Sales15.10m15.67m
11/2/23Challenger Job Cuts YoY58.20%
11/2/23Nonfarm Productivity4.00%3.50%
11/2/23Unit Labor Costs1.00%2.20%
11/2/23Initial Jobless Claims210k
11/2/23Continuing Claims1790k
11/2/23Factory Orders1.00%1.20%
11/2/23Factory Orders Ex Trans1.40%
11/2/23Durable Goods Orders4.70%
11/2/23Durables Ex Transportation0.50%
11/2/23Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.60%
11/2/23Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.00%

 

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