Equity markets are down again this morning following disappointing earnings reports from several companies, including Amazon and Google. S&P 500 futures are down more than 1%, and NASDAQ futures are currently down 2.1%. The weakness in stocks in fueled a strong bid for Treasuries overnight, but the rally is subsiding somewhat following the release of a better than expected Q3 GDP report.

The initial estimate of Q3 GDP shows 3.5% quarter/quarter growth (annualized) versus expectations of a 3.3% gain, and personal consumption was 70 bps above expectations at 4%. This would be the highest personal consumption growth rate since 2014. After reducing headline growth by more than 1 percentage point in Q2, inventory building added more than 2 percentage points to Q3 growth (most since 2015). However, a decline in exports caused the trade component to shed 1.8% from overall growth, the biggest such drag in 33 years. Government spending rose to a 2 year high, but business investment was softer in Q3.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

 

DateEventSurveyActualPrior
10/22Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index0.210.170.18
10/23Richmond Fed Manufact. Index241529
10/24MBA Mortgage Applications4.90%-7.10%
10/24FHFA House Price Index MoM0.30%0.30%0.20%
10/24Markit US Manufacturing PMI55.355.955.6
10/24Markit US Services PMI5454.753.5
10/24Markit US Composite PMI54.853.9
10/24New Home Sales625k553k629k
10/24New Home Sales MoM-0.60%-5.50%3.50%
10/24U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
10/25Advance Goods Trade Balance-$75.1b-$76.0b-$75.8b
10/25Wholesale Inventories MoM0.50%0.30%1.00%
10/25Retail Inventories MoM0.10%0.70%
10/25Durable Goods Orders-1.50%0.80%4.40%
10/25Durables Ex Transportation0.40%0.10%0.00%
10/25Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.50%-0.10%-0.90%
10/25Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.40%0.00%-0.20%
10/25Initial Jobless Claims215k215k210k
10/25Continuing Claims1644k1636k1640k
10/25Bloomberg Consumer Comfort60.160.8
10/25Pending Home Sales MoM0.00%0.50%-1.80%
10/25Pending Home Sales NSA YoY-2.60%-3.40%-2.50%
10/25Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity14813
10/26GDP Annualized QoQ3.30%3.50%4.20%
10/26Personal Consumption3.30%4.00%3.80%
10/26GDP Price Index2.10%1.70%3.00%
10/26Core PCE QoQ1.80%1.60%2.10%
10/26U. of Mich. Sentiment9999
10/26U. of Mich. Current Conditions114.4
10/26U. of Mich. Expectations89.1
10/26U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.80%
10/26U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.30%