Treasury yields moved slightly, the curve pivoted around the unchanged three-year part of the curve. Yields initially rose in overnight trading but retraced their losses in sympathy with robust demand for European sovereign debt. Third quarter GDP rose at a 3% annualized rate, beating estimates by 0.4%. The back-to-back increases in GDP, 3.1% in the second quarter, are the best back-to-back quarters seen by the US economy since 2014. Consumer spending, which accounts for 70% of the economy, grew 2.4% because of increased auto purchases as Americans impacted by the hurricanes replaced damaged vehicles.
Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group
| Date | Event | Surv(M) | Actual | Prior |
| 10/23 | Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index | -0.13 | 0.17 | -0.31 |
| 10/24 | Markit US Manufacturing PMI | 53.4 | 54.5 | 53.1 |
| 10/24 | Markit US Services PMI | 55.2 | 55.9 | 55.3 |
| 10/24 | Markit US Composite PMI | — | 55.7 | 54.8 |
| 10/24 | Richmond Fed Manufact. Index | 17 | 12 | 19 |
| 10/25 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | -4.60% | 3.60% |
| 10/25 | Durable Goods Orders | 1.00% | 2.20% | 2.00% |
| 10/25 | Durables Ex Transportation | 0.50% | 0.70% | 0.50% |
| 10/25 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | 0.30% | 1.30% | 1.10% |
| 10/25 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | 0.10% | 0.70% | 1.10% |
| 10/25 | FHFA House Price Index MoM | 0.40% | 0.70% | 0.20% |
| 10/25 | New Home Sales | 554k | 667k | 560k |
| 10/25 | New Home Sales MoM | -1.10% | 18.90% | -3.40% |
| 10/26 | Initial Jobless Claims | 235k | 233k | 222k |
| 10/26 | Continuing Claims | 1890k | 1893k | 1888k |
| 10/26 | Advance Goods Trade Balance | -$64.0b | -$64.1b | -$62.9b |
| 10/26 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.40% | 0.30% | 0.90% |
| 10/26 | Retail Inventories MoM | — | -1.00% | 0.70% |
| 10/26 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | 51 | 51.1 |
| 10/26 | Pending Home Sales MoM | 0.50% | 0.00% | -2.60% |
| 10/26 | Pending Home Sales NSA YoY | -4.20% | -5.40% | -3.10% |
| 10/26 | Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity | 17 | 23 | 17 |
| 10/27 | GDP Annualized QoQ | 2.60% | 3.00% | 3.10% |
| 10/27 | Personal Consumption | 2.10% | 2.40% | 3.30% |
| 10/27 | GDP Price Index | 1.70% | 2.20% | 1.00% |
| 10/27 | Core PCE QoQ | 1.30% | 1.30% | 0.90% |
| 10/27 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 100.7 | 100.7 | 101.1 |
| 10/27 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | — | 116.5 | 116.4 |
| 10/27 | U. of Mich. Expectations | — | 90.5 | 91.3 |
| 10/27 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | — | 2.40% | 2.30% |
| 10/27 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | — | 2.50% | 2.40% |