Treasury yields moved slightly, the curve pivoted around the unchanged three-year part of the curve. Yields initially rose in overnight trading but retraced their losses in sympathy with robust demand for European sovereign debt. Third quarter GDP rose at a 3% annualized rate, beating estimates by 0.4%. The back-to-back increases in GDP, 3.1% in the second quarter, are the best back-to-back quarters seen by the US economy since 2014. Consumer spending, which accounts for 70% of the economy, grew 2.4% because of increased auto purchases as Americans impacted by the hurricanes replaced damaged vehicles.

Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group

DateEventSurv(M)ActualPrior
10/23Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index-0.130.17-0.31
10/24Markit US Manufacturing PMI53.454.553.1
10/24Markit US Services PMI55.255.955.3
10/24Markit US Composite PMI55.754.8
10/24Richmond Fed Manufact. Index171219
10/25MBA Mortgage Applications-4.60%3.60%
10/25Durable Goods Orders1.00%2.20%2.00%
10/25Durables Ex Transportation0.50%0.70%0.50%
10/25Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.30%1.30%1.10%
10/25Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.10%0.70%1.10%
10/25FHFA House Price Index MoM0.40%0.70%0.20%
10/25New Home Sales554k667k560k
10/25New Home Sales MoM-1.10%18.90%-3.40%
10/26Initial Jobless Claims235k233k222k
10/26Continuing Claims1890k1893k1888k
10/26Advance Goods Trade Balance-$64.0b-$64.1b-$62.9b
10/26Wholesale Inventories MoM0.40%0.30%0.90%
10/26Retail Inventories MoM-1.00%0.70%
10/26Bloomberg Consumer Comfort5151.1
10/26Pending Home Sales MoM0.50%0.00%-2.60%
10/26Pending Home Sales NSA YoY-4.20%-5.40%-3.10%
10/26Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity172317
10/27GDP Annualized QoQ2.60%3.00%3.10%
10/27Personal Consumption2.10%2.40%3.30%
10/27GDP Price Index1.70%2.20%1.00%
10/27Core PCE QoQ1.30%1.30%0.90%
10/27U. of Mich. Sentiment100.7100.7101.1
10/27U. of Mich. Current Conditions116.5116.4
10/27U. of Mich. Expectations90.591.3
10/27U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.40%2.30%
10/27U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.50%2.40%