October 27, 2020 Headlines

Treasury yields are slightly lower across the curve this morning in a continuation of yesterday’s rally that pushed long-end yields 5 basis points lower. Covid remains the primary culprit for the negative market sentiment as cases, hospitalizations, and deaths continue to rise in Europe and the U.S., and the reduced odds of a stimulus deal ahead of the election is also contributing to the flattening bias in Treasuries. The preliminary September durable goods report was much better than expected, with headline orders rising 1.9% over the month vs. 0.5% expected. Non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft (i.e., core orders), which are used as a proxy for capital expenditures, doubled expectations at +1.0% in September. The one disappointment in the report was core shipments, which were up 0.3% vs. 0.4% expected. This is another solid report for business investment, but it probably doesn’t move the needle much in terms of altering economist expectations for Thursday’s initial estimate of Q3 GDP.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

10/26/20Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index0.730.270.791.11
10/26/20New Home Sales1025k959k1011k994k
10/26/20New Home Sales MoM1.40%-3.50%4.80%3.00%
10/26/20Dallas Fed Manf. Activity13.519.813.6
10/27/20Durable Goods Orders0.50%1.90%0.50%0.40%
10/27/20Durables Ex Transportation0.40%0.80%0.60%1.00%
10/27/20Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.50%1.00%1.90%2.10%
10/27/20Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.40%0.30%1.50%
10/27/20FHFA House Price Index MoM0.70%1.50%1.00%1.10%
10/27/20S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA0.50%0.47%0.55%0.75%
10/27/20S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA4.20%5.18%3.95%4.12%
10/27/20S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index229.4226.55226.92
10/27/20S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA5.71%4.78%4.78%
10/27/20S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index224221.64221.63
10/27/20Conf. Board Consumer Confidence102101.8
10/27/20Conf. Board Present Situation98.5
10/27/20Conf. Board Expectations104
10/27/20Richmond Fed Manufact. Index1821
10/28/20MBA Mortgage Applications-0.60%
10/28/20Advance Goods Trade Balance-$84.5b-$82.9b
10/28/20Wholesale Inventories MoM0.40%0.40%
10/28/20Retail Inventories MoM0.50%0.80%
10/29/20Initial Jobless Claims773k787k
10/29/20Continuing Claims7700k8373k
10/29/20GDP Annualized QoQ32.00%-31.40%
10/29/20Personal Consumption38.90%-33.20%
10/29/20GDP Price Index2.90%-1.80%
10/29/20Core PCE QoQ4.00%-0.80%
10/29/20Bloomberg Consumer Comfort46.6
10/29/20Pending Home Sales MoM3.00%8.80%
10/29/20Pending Home Sales NSA YoY20.50%
10/30/20Personal Income0.40%-2.70%
10/30/20Personal Spending1.00%1.00%
10/30/20Real Personal Spending0.80%0.70%
10/30/20PCE Deflator MoM0.20%0.30%
10/30/20PCE Deflator YoY1.50%1.40%
10/30/20PCE Core Deflator MoM0.20%0.30%
10/30/20Employment Cost Index0.50%0.50%
10/30/20PCE Core Deflator YoY1.70%1.60%
10/30/20MNI Chicago PMI5862.4
10/30/20U. of Mich. Sentiment81.281.2
10/30/20U. of Mich. Current Conditions84.9
10/30/20U. of Mich. Expectations78.8
10/30/20U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.70%
10/30/20U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.40%


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