October 27, 2020 Headlines

Treasury yields are slightly lower across the curve this morning in a continuation of yesterday’s rally that pushed long-end yields 5 basis points lower. Covid remains the primary culprit for the negative market sentiment as cases, hospitalizations, and deaths continue to rise in Europe and the U.S., and the reduced odds of a stimulus deal ahead of the election is also contributing to the flattening bias in Treasuries. The preliminary September durable goods report was much better than expected, with headline orders rising 1.9% over the month vs. 0.5% expected. Non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft (i.e., core orders), which are used as a proxy for capital expenditures, doubled expectations at +1.0% in September. The one disappointment in the report was core shipments, which were up 0.3% vs. 0.4% expected. This is another solid report for business investment, but it probably doesn’t move the needle much in terms of altering economist expectations for Thursday’s initial estimate of Q3 GDP.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
10/26/20 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index 0.73 0.27 0.79 1.11
10/26/20 New Home Sales 1025k 959k 1011k 994k
10/26/20 New Home Sales MoM 1.40% -3.50% 4.80% 3.00%
10/26/20 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity 13.5 19.8 13.6 —
10/27/20 Durable Goods Orders 0.50% 1.90% 0.50% 0.40%
10/27/20 Durables Ex Transportation 0.40% 0.80% 0.60% 1.00%
10/27/20 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air 0.50% 1.00% 1.90% 2.10%
10/27/20 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air 0.40% 0.30% 1.50% —
10/27/20 FHFA House Price Index MoM 0.70% 1.50% 1.00% 1.10%
10/27/20 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA 0.50% 0.47% 0.55% 0.75%
10/27/20 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA 4.20% 5.18% 3.95% 4.12%
10/27/20 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index — 229.4 226.55 226.92
10/27/20 S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA — 5.71% 4.78% 4.78%
10/27/20 S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index — 224 221.64 221.63
10/27/20 Conf. Board Consumer Confidence 102 — 101.8 —
10/27/20 Conf. Board Present Situation — — 98.5 —
10/27/20 Conf. Board Expectations — — 104 —
10/27/20 Richmond Fed Manufact. Index 18 — 21 —
10/28/20 MBA Mortgage Applications — — -0.60% —
10/28/20 Advance Goods Trade Balance -$84.5b — -$82.9b —
10/28/20 Wholesale Inventories MoM 0.40% — 0.40% —
10/28/20 Retail Inventories MoM 0.50% — 0.80% —
10/29/20 Initial Jobless Claims 773k — 787k —
10/29/20 Continuing Claims 7700k — 8373k —
10/29/20 GDP Annualized QoQ 32.00% — -31.40% —
10/29/20 Personal Consumption 38.90% — -33.20% —
10/29/20 GDP Price Index 2.90% — -1.80% —
10/29/20 Core PCE QoQ 4.00% — -0.80% —
10/29/20 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort — — 46.6 —
10/29/20 Pending Home Sales MoM 3.00% — 8.80% —
10/29/20 Pending Home Sales NSA YoY — — 20.50% —
10/30/20 Personal Income 0.40% — -2.70% —
10/30/20 Personal Spending 1.00% — 1.00% —
10/30/20 Real Personal Spending 0.80% — 0.70% —
10/30/20 PCE Deflator MoM 0.20% — 0.30% —
10/30/20 PCE Deflator YoY 1.50% — 1.40% —
10/30/20 PCE Core Deflator MoM 0.20% — 0.30% —
10/30/20 Employment Cost Index 0.50% — 0.50% —
10/30/20 PCE Core Deflator YoY 1.70% — 1.60% —
10/30/20 MNI Chicago PMI 58 — 62.4 —
10/30/20 U. of Mich. Sentiment 81.2 — 81.2 —
10/30/20 U. of Mich. Current Conditions — — 84.9 —
10/30/20 U. of Mich. Expectations — — 78.8 —
10/30/20 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation — — 2.70% —
10/30/20 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation — — 2.40% —

 

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