October 27, 2021 Headlines

Long-end Treasury yields are lower to start the day, but front-end yields are slightly higher again today as investors remain cautious ahead of several upcoming central bank meetings. In Washington, media reports suggest that several unresolved issues remain outstanding on passing President Biden’s spending bill to fund social programs and climate change initiatives, reducing the odds of a quick vote in Congress. The Senate-passed infrastructure bill is still stalled in the House by the 95-member progressive caucus, who refuses to vote on it until an agreement on the larger spending deal is reached. Mortgage application activity rose 0.3% last week according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Purchase applications were up 3.5% versus the prior week, but refi applications slowed 1.6%. The average 30-year and 15-year fixed mortgage rates rose 7 basis points (3.30%) and 5 basis point (2.59%) over the period according to the survey.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
10/27/2021 MBA Mortgage Applications — 0.30% -6.30% —
10/27/2021 Advance Goods Trade Balance -$88.3b -$96.3b -$87.6b -$88.2b
10/27/2021 Wholesale Inventories MoM 1.00% 1.10% 1.20% —
10/27/2021 Retail Inventories MoM 0.20% -0.20% 0.10% 0.20%
10/27/2021 Durable Goods Orders -1.10% -0.40% 1.80% 1.30%
10/27/2021 Durables Ex Transportation 0.40% 0.40% 0.30% —
10/27/2021 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air 0.50% 0.80% 0.60% 0.50%
10/27/2021 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air 0.50% 1.40% 0.80% 0.60%
10/28/2021 Initial Jobless Claims 289k — 290k —
10/28/2021 Continuing Claims 2420k — 2481k —
10/28/2021 GDP Annualized QoQ 2.60% — 6.70% —
10/28/2021 Personal Consumption 0.80% — 12.00% —
10/28/2021 GDP Price Index 5.30% — 6.10% —
10/28/2021 Core PCE QoQ 4.40% — 6.10% —
10/28/2021 Langer Consumer Comfort — — 49.7 —
10/28/2021 Pending Home Sales MoM 0.50% — 8.10% —
10/28/2021 Pending Home Sales NSA YoY -3.00% — -6.30% —
10/28/2021 Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity 20 — 22 —
10/29/2021 Employment Cost Index 0.90% — 0.70% —
10/29/2021 Personal Income -0.20% — 0.20% —
10/29/2021 Personal Spending 0.60% — 0.80% —
10/29/2021 Real Personal Spending 0.30% — 0.40% —
10/29/2021 PCE Deflator MoM 0.30% — 0.40% —
10/29/2021 PCE Deflator YoY 4.40% — 4.30% —
10/29/2021 PCE Core Deflator MoM 0.20% — 0.30% —
10/29/2021 PCE Core Deflator YoY 3.70% — 3.60% —
10/29/2021 MNI Chicago PMI 63.5 — 64.7 —
10/29/2021 U. of Mich. Sentiment 71.4 — 71.4 —
10/29/2021 U. of Mich. Current Conditions — — 77.9 —
10/29/2021 U. of Mich. Expectations — — 67.2 —
10/29/2021 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation — — 4.80% —
10/29/2021 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation — — 2.80% —

 

Subscribe Today!

Subscribe to our email list and get the latest articles and announcements from ALM First.

Subscribe
ALM First offers investment advisory services through ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC, which is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC nor does it indicate that the firm has attained a particular level of skill or ability. The information contained herein does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation for you to purchase or sell any specific security. You are solely responsible for reviewing the content and for any actions you take or choose not to take based on your review of such content. Information contained herein was derived from third party sources as indicated. While such information is believed to be reliable, no representation or warranty is made concerning the accuracy of any information presented. We have not and will not independently verify this information. Where such sources include opinions and projections, such opinions and projections should be ascribed only to the applicable third party source and not to ALM First. Statements herein that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance are forward-looking statements. Such “forward-looking” statements are based on various assumptions, which assumptions may not prove to be correct. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that such assumptions and statements will accurately predict future events or actual performance. No representation or warranty can be given that the estimates, opinions or assumptions made herein will prove to be accurate. Any projections and forward-looking statements included herein should be considered speculative and are qualified in their entirety by the information and risks disclosed in the confidential offering document. Actual results for any period may or may not approximate such forward-looking statements. No representations or warranties whatsoever are made by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC or any other person or entity as to the future profitability of investments recommended by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC.