October 27, 2021 Headlines

Long-end Treasury yields are lower to start the day, but front-end yields are slightly higher again today as investors remain cautious ahead of several upcoming central bank meetings. In Washington, media reports suggest that several unresolved issues remain outstanding on passing President Biden’s spending bill to fund social programs and climate change initiatives, reducing the odds of a quick vote in Congress. The Senate-passed infrastructure bill is still stalled in the House by the 95-member progressive caucus, who refuses to vote on it until an agreement on the larger spending deal is reached. Mortgage application activity rose 0.3% last week according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Purchase applications were up 3.5% versus the prior week, but refi applications slowed 1.6%. The average 30-year and 15-year fixed mortgage rates rose 7 basis points (3.30%) and 5 basis point (2.59%) over the period according to the survey.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

10/27/2021MBA Mortgage Applications0.30%-6.30%
10/27/2021Advance Goods Trade Balance-$88.3b-$96.3b-$87.6b-$88.2b
10/27/2021Wholesale Inventories MoM1.00%1.10%1.20%
10/27/2021Retail Inventories MoM0.20%-0.20%0.10%0.20%
10/27/2021Durable Goods Orders-1.10%-0.40%1.80%1.30%
10/27/2021Durables Ex Transportation0.40%0.40%0.30%
10/27/2021Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.50%0.80%0.60%0.50%
10/27/2021Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.50%1.40%0.80%0.60%
10/28/2021Initial Jobless Claims289k290k
10/28/2021Continuing Claims2420k2481k
10/28/2021GDP Annualized QoQ2.60%6.70%
10/28/2021Personal Consumption0.80%12.00%
10/28/2021GDP Price Index5.30%6.10%
10/28/2021Core PCE QoQ4.40%6.10%
10/28/2021Langer Consumer Comfort49.7
10/28/2021Pending Home Sales MoM0.50%8.10%
10/28/2021Pending Home Sales NSA YoY-3.00%-6.30%
10/28/2021Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity2022
10/29/2021Employment Cost Index0.90%0.70%
10/29/2021Personal Income-0.20%0.20%
10/29/2021Personal Spending0.60%0.80%
10/29/2021Real Personal Spending0.30%0.40%
10/29/2021PCE Deflator MoM0.30%0.40%
10/29/2021PCE Deflator YoY4.40%4.30%
10/29/2021PCE Core Deflator MoM0.20%0.30%
10/29/2021PCE Core Deflator YoY3.70%3.60%
10/29/2021MNI Chicago PMI63.564.7
10/29/2021U. of Mich. Sentiment71.471.4
10/29/2021U. of Mich. Current Conditions77.9
10/29/2021U. of Mich. Expectations67.2
10/29/2021U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation4.80%
10/29/2021U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.80%


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