October 27, 2021 Headlines

Long-end Treasury yields are lower to start the day, but front-end yields are slightly higher again today as investors remain cautious ahead of several upcoming central bank meetings. In Washington, media reports suggest that several unresolved issues remain outstanding on passing President Biden’s spending bill to fund social programs and climate change initiatives, reducing the odds of a quick vote in Congress. The Senate-passed infrastructure bill is still stalled in the House by the 95-member progressive caucus, who refuses to vote on it until an agreement on the larger spending deal is reached. Mortgage application activity rose 0.3% last week according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Purchase applications were up 3.5% versus the prior week, but refi applications slowed 1.6%. The average 30-year and 15-year fixed mortgage rates rose 7 basis points (3.30%) and 5 basis point (2.59%) over the period according to the survey.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
10/27/2021 MBA Mortgage Applications 0.30% -6.30%
10/27/2021 Advance Goods Trade Balance -$88.3b -$96.3b -$87.6b -$88.2b
10/27/2021 Wholesale Inventories MoM 1.00% 1.10% 1.20%
10/27/2021 Retail Inventories MoM 0.20% -0.20% 0.10% 0.20%
10/27/2021 Durable Goods Orders -1.10% -0.40% 1.80% 1.30%
10/27/2021 Durables Ex Transportation 0.40% 0.40% 0.30%
10/27/2021 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air 0.50% 0.80% 0.60% 0.50%
10/27/2021 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air 0.50% 1.40% 0.80% 0.60%
10/28/2021 Initial Jobless Claims 289k 290k
10/28/2021 Continuing Claims 2420k 2481k
10/28/2021 GDP Annualized QoQ 2.60% 6.70%
10/28/2021 Personal Consumption 0.80% 12.00%
10/28/2021 GDP Price Index 5.30% 6.10%
10/28/2021 Core PCE QoQ 4.40% 6.10%
10/28/2021 Langer Consumer Comfort 49.7
10/28/2021 Pending Home Sales MoM 0.50% 8.10%
10/28/2021 Pending Home Sales NSA YoY -3.00% -6.30%
10/28/2021 Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity 20 22
10/29/2021 Employment Cost Index 0.90% 0.70%
10/29/2021 Personal Income -0.20% 0.20%
10/29/2021 Personal Spending 0.60% 0.80%
10/29/2021 Real Personal Spending 0.30% 0.40%
10/29/2021 PCE Deflator MoM 0.30% 0.40%
10/29/2021 PCE Deflator YoY 4.40% 4.30%
10/29/2021 PCE Core Deflator MoM 0.20% 0.30%
10/29/2021 PCE Core Deflator YoY 3.70% 3.60%
10/29/2021 MNI Chicago PMI 63.5 64.7
10/29/2021 U. of Mich. Sentiment 71.4 71.4
10/29/2021 U. of Mich. Current Conditions 77.9
10/29/2021 U. of Mich. Expectations 67.2
10/29/2021 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation 4.80%
10/29/2021 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation 2.80%

 

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