October 28, 2019 Headlines

Positive headlines on both the US China trade war and Brexit lead to a risk-on sentiment pushing US Treasury yields and equities higher this morning. China released a statement that said the first phase of the trade deal is “basically completed”. This echoes comments from President Trump on Friday that claimed the US is ahead of schedule to sign the first part of the trade deal which is expected when both presidents meet in Chile next month. In Europe, European Union leaders have agreed in principle to extend Brexit until Jan 31st. While the UK prime minister has repeatedly touted his intent to leave on the October 31st deadline, current laws require him to accept the extension offer. In addition to the Federal Reserve policy decision on Wednesday, market participates will also be looking forward to the release of GDP and jobs number.

Chris Eckhoff
Associate, Investment Management Group

10/28/2019Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index0-0.450.10.15
10/28/2019Advance Goods Trade Balance-$73.5b-$70.4b-$72.8b-$73.1b
10/28/2019Wholesale Inventories MoM0.20%-0.30%0.20%0.00%
10/28/2019Retail Inventories MoM0.20%0.30%0.00%-0.20%
10/28/2019Dallas Fed Manf. Activity11.5
10/29/2019S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA-0.10%0.02%
10/29/2019S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA2.10%2.00%
10/29/2019S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index218
10/29/2019S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA3.18%
10/29/2019S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index211.72
10/29/2019Conf. Board Consumer Confidence128125.1
10/29/2019Conf. Board Present Situation169
10/29/2019Conf. Board Expectations95.8
10/29/2019Pending Home Sales MoM0.70%1.60%
10/29/2019Pending Home Sales NSA YoY3.60%1.10%
10/30/2019MBA Mortgage Applications-11.90%
10/30/2019ADP Employment Change110k135k
10/30/2019GDP Annualized QoQ1.60%2.00%
10/30/2019Personal Consumption2.60%4.60%
10/30/2019GDP Price Index1.90%2.40%
10/30/2019Core PCE QoQ2.20%1.90%
10/30/2019FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)1.75%2.00%
10/30/2019FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)1.50%1.75%
10/30/2019Interest Rate on Excess Reserves1.55%1.80%
10/31/2019Challenger Job Cuts YoY-24.80%
10/31/2019Employment Cost Index0.70%0.60%
10/31/2019Personal Income0.30%0.40%
10/31/2019Personal Spending0.30%0.10%
10/31/2019Real Personal Spending0.20%0.10%
10/31/2019PCE Deflator MoM0.00%0.00%
10/31/2019PCE Deflator YoY1.40%1.40%
10/31/2019Initial Jobless Claims215k212k
10/31/2019Continuing Claims1679k1682k
10/31/2019PCE Core Deflator MoM0.10%0.10%
10/31/2019PCE Core Deflator YoY1.70%1.80%
10/31/2019MNI Chicago PMI4847.1
10/31/2019Bloomberg Consumer Comfort63.4
11/1/2019Change in Nonfarm Payrolls85k136k
11/1/2019Two-Month Payroll Net Revision45k
11/1/2019Change in Private Payrolls80k114k
11/1/2019Change in Manufact. Payrolls-55k-2k
11/1/2019Unemployment Rate3.60%3.50%
11/1/2019Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%0.00%
11/1/2019Average Hourly Earnings YoY3.00%2.90%
11/1/2019Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.434.4
11/1/2019Labor Force Participation Rate63.10%63.20%
11/1/2019Underemployment Rate6.90%
11/1/2019Markit US Manufacturing PMI51.551.5
11/1/2019ISM Manufacturing4947.8
11/1/2019ISM Employment46.3
11/1/2019ISM Prices Paid5049.7
11/1/2019ISM New Orders47.3
11/1/2019Construction Spending MoM0.20%0.10%
11/1/2019Wards Total Vehicle Sales17.00m17.19m




















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