October 28, 2021 Headlines

The front-end of the Treasury curve remains under selling pressure on speculation that central banks will have to initiate rate hikes sooner than expected due to inflation worries. The 3-year yield is up 3 basis points this morning to 0.80%, double the level it traded in early September. The October ECB official statement presented no notable surprises, and markets now await ECB President Christina Lagarde’s press conference to assess her tone in light of recent hawkishness from global monetary policymakers. On the data front, the advance estimate of Q3 GDP will be released this morning, and consensus estimates for top line growth and consumption are 2.6% and 0.9%, respectively, according to Bloomberg.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date	Event	Survey	Actual	Prior	Revised
10/25/2021	Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index	0.2	-0.13	0.29	0.05
10/25/2021	Dallas Fed Manf. Activity	6	14.6	4.6	—
10/26/2021	FHFA House Price Index MoM	1.50%	1.00%	1.40%	—
10/26/2021	S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA	1.50%	1.17%	1.55%	1.53%
10/26/2021	S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA	20.00%	19.66%	19.95%	20.02%
10/26/2021	S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA	—	19.84%	19.70%	19.75%
10/26/2021	New Home Sales	756k	800k	740k	702k
10/26/2021	New Home Sales MoM	2.20%	14.00%	1.50%	-1.40%
10/26/2021	Conf. Board Consumer Confidence	108	113.8	109.3	109.8
10/26/2021	Conf. Board Present Situation	—	147.4	143.4	144.3
10/26/2021	Conf. Board Expectations	—	91.3	86.6	86.7
10/26/2021	Richmond Fed Manufact. Index	5	12	-3	—
10/27/2021	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	0.30%	-6.30%	—
10/27/2021	Advance Goods Trade Balance	-$88.3b	-$96.3b	-$87.6b	-$88.2b
10/27/2021	Wholesale Inventories MoM	1.00%	1.10%	1.20%	—
10/27/2021	Retail Inventories MoM	0.20%	-0.20%	0.10%	0.20%
10/27/2021	Durable Goods Orders	-1.10%	-0.40%	1.80%	1.30%
10/27/2021	Durables Ex Transportation	0.40%	0.40%	0.30%	—
10/27/2021	Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air	0.50%	0.80%	0.60%	0.50%
10/27/2021	Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air	0.50%	1.40%	0.80%	0.60%
10/28/2021	Initial Jobless Claims	288k	281k	290k	291k
10/28/2021	Continuing Claims	2420k	2243k	2481k	2480k
10/28/2021	GDP Annualized QoQ	2.60%	2.00%	6.70%	—
10/28/2021	Personal Consumption	0.90%	1.60%	12.00%	—
10/28/2021	GDP Price Index	5.30%	5.70%	6.10%	—
10/28/2021	Core PCE QoQ	4.50%	4.50%	6.10%	—
10/28/2021	Langer Consumer Comfort	—	—	49.7	—
10/28/2021	Pending Home Sales MoM	0.50%	—	8.10%	—
10/28/2021	Pending Home Sales NSA YoY	-3.10%	—	-6.30%	—
10/28/2021	Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity	20	—	22	—
10/29/2021	Employment Cost Index	0.90%	—	0.70%	—
10/29/2021	Personal Income	-0.20%	—	0.20%	—
10/29/2021	Personal Spending	0.60%	—	0.80%	—
10/29/2021	Real Personal Spending	0.30%	—	0.40%	—
10/29/2021	PCE Deflator MoM	0.30%	—	0.40%	—
10/29/2021	PCE Deflator YoY	4.40%	—	4.30%	—
10/29/2021	PCE Core Deflator MoM	0.20%	—	0.30%	—
10/29/2021	PCE Core Deflator YoY	3.70%	—	3.60%	—
10/29/2021	MNI Chicago PMI	63.5	—	64.7	—
10/29/2021	U. of Mich. Sentiment	71.4	—	71.4	—
10/29/2021	U. of Mich. Current Conditions	77.9	—	77.9	—
10/29/2021	U. of Mich. Expectations	67.2	—	67.2	—
10/29/2021	U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation	4.80%	—	4.80%	—
10/29/2021	U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation	—	—	2.80%	—

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