October 28, 2021 Headlines

The front-end of the Treasury curve remains under selling pressure on speculation that central banks will have to initiate rate hikes sooner than expected due to inflation worries. The 3-year yield is up 3 basis points this morning to 0.80%, double the level it traded in early September. The October ECB official statement presented no notable surprises, and markets now await ECB President Christina Lagarde’s press conference to assess her tone in light of recent hawkishness from global monetary policymakers. On the data front, the advance estimate of Q3 GDP will be released this morning, and consensus estimates for top line growth and consumption are 2.6% and 0.9%, respectively, according to Bloomberg.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

10/25/2021Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index0.2-
10/25/2021Dallas Fed Manf. Activity614.64.6
10/26/2021FHFA House Price Index MoM1.50%1.00%1.40%
10/26/2021S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA1.50%1.17%1.55%1.53%
10/26/2021S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA20.00%19.66%19.95%20.02%
10/26/2021S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA19.84%19.70%19.75%
10/26/2021New Home Sales756k800k740k702k
10/26/2021New Home Sales MoM2.20%14.00%1.50%-1.40%
10/26/2021Conf. Board Consumer Confidence108113.8109.3109.8
10/26/2021Conf. Board Present Situation147.4143.4144.3
10/26/2021Conf. Board Expectations91.386.686.7
10/26/2021Richmond Fed Manufact. Index512-3
10/27/2021MBA Mortgage Applications0.30%-6.30%
10/27/2021Advance Goods Trade Balance-$88.3b-$96.3b-$87.6b-$88.2b
10/27/2021Wholesale Inventories MoM1.00%1.10%1.20%
10/27/2021Retail Inventories MoM0.20%-0.20%0.10%0.20%
10/27/2021Durable Goods Orders-1.10%-0.40%1.80%1.30%
10/27/2021Durables Ex Transportation0.40%0.40%0.30%
10/27/2021Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.50%0.80%0.60%0.50%
10/27/2021Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.50%1.40%0.80%0.60%
10/28/2021Initial Jobless Claims288k281k290k291k
10/28/2021Continuing Claims2420k2243k2481k2480k
10/28/2021GDP Annualized QoQ2.60%2.00%6.70%
10/28/2021Personal Consumption0.90%1.60%12.00%
10/28/2021GDP Price Index5.30%5.70%6.10%
10/28/2021Core PCE QoQ4.50%4.50%6.10%
10/28/2021Langer Consumer Comfort49.7
10/28/2021Pending Home Sales MoM0.50%8.10%
10/28/2021Pending Home Sales NSA YoY-3.10%-6.30%
10/28/2021Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity2022
10/29/2021Employment Cost Index0.90%0.70%
10/29/2021Personal Income-0.20%0.20%
10/29/2021Personal Spending0.60%0.80%
10/29/2021Real Personal Spending0.30%0.40%
10/29/2021PCE Deflator MoM0.30%0.40%
10/29/2021PCE Deflator YoY4.40%4.30%
10/29/2021PCE Core Deflator MoM0.20%0.30%
10/29/2021PCE Core Deflator YoY3.70%3.60%
10/29/2021MNI Chicago PMI63.564.7
10/29/2021U. of Mich. Sentiment71.471.4
10/29/2021U. of Mich. Current Conditions77.977.9
10/29/2021U. of Mich. Expectations67.267.2
10/29/2021U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation4.80%4.80%
10/29/2021U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.80%

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