October 29, 2021 Headlines

The sell-off continues in Treasuries this morning, led by the front-end of the curve. The 2-year to 5-year part of the curve is up 5-6 basis points after inflation readings in the Eurozone rose to a fresh 13-year high in October. Inflation remains the predominant theme, and markets are essentially testing the credibility of the world’s largest central banks. Stocks are also under pressure this morning following weaker than expected earnings from Amazon and Apple. S&P 500 futures are down 0.58% just ahead of the open.  On the data front, the Employment Cost Index (ECI) rose 1.3% in the third quarter, up from 0.9% expected and 0.7% the prior quarter. This is the highest reading on record since the index was created in Q4 1996, surpassing the previous high of 1.2% in Q1 2003. The ECI is a preferred measure of wage growth by the Fed because it includes bonuses and other benefits.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

10/25/21Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index0.2-
10/25/21Dallas Fed Manf. Activity614.64.6
10/26/21FHFA House Price Index MoM1.50%1.00%1.40%
10/26/21S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA1.50%1.17%1.55%1.53%
10/26/21S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA20.00%19.66%19.95%20.02%
10/26/21S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA19.84%19.70%19.75%
10/26/21New Home Sales756k800k740k702k
10/26/21New Home Sales MoM2.20%14.00%1.50%-1.40%
10/26/21Conf. Board Consumer Confidence108113.8109.3109.8
10/26/21Conf. Board Present Situation147.4143.4144.3
10/26/21Conf. Board Expectations91.386.686.7
10/26/21Richmond Fed Manufact. Index512-3
10/27/21MBA Mortgage Applications0.30%-6.30%
10/27/21Advance Goods Trade Balance-$88.3b-$96.3b-$87.6b-$88.2b
10/27/21Wholesale Inventories MoM1.00%1.10%1.20%
10/27/21Retail Inventories MoM0.20%-0.20%0.10%0.20%
10/27/21Durable Goods Orders-1.10%-0.40%1.80%1.30%
10/27/21Durables Ex Transportation0.40%0.40%0.30%
10/27/21Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.50%0.80%0.60%0.50%
10/27/21Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.50%1.40%0.80%0.60%
10/28/21Initial Jobless Claims288k281k290k291k
10/28/21Continuing Claims2420k2243k2481k2480k
10/28/21GDP Annualized QoQ2.60%2.00%6.70%
10/28/21Personal Consumption0.90%1.60%12.00%
10/28/21GDP Price Index5.30%5.70%6.10%
10/28/21Core PCE QoQ4.50%4.50%6.10%
10/28/21Langer Consumer Comfort47.949.7
10/28/21Pending Home Sales MoM0.50%-2.30%8.10%
10/28/21Pending Home Sales NSA YoY-3.10%-7.20%-6.30%
10/28/21Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity203122
10/29/21Employment Cost Index0.90%1.30%0.70%
10/29/21Personal Income-0.30%-1.00%0.20%
10/29/21Personal Spending0.60%0.60%0.80%1.00%
10/29/21Real Personal Spending0.30%0.30%0.40%0.60%
10/29/21PCE Deflator MoM0.30%0.30%0.40%0.30%
10/29/21PCE Deflator YoY4.40%4.40%4.30%4.20%
10/29/21PCE Core Deflator MoM0.20%0.20%0.30%
10/29/21PCE Core Deflator YoY3.70%3.60%3.60%
10/29/21MNI Chicago PMI63.764.7
10/29/21U. of Mich. Sentiment71.471.4
10/29/21U. of Mich. Current Conditions77.977.9
10/29/21U. of Mich. Expectations67.267.2
10/29/21U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation4.80%4.80%
10/29/21U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.80%


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