October 29th Headlines

by | Oct 29, 2018 | Beyond the Headlines

Treasuries were well bid overnight amid weakness in Asian equities (Shanghai Composite -2.2%), but prices are now lower on the day across the curve on strength in U.S. and European equity markets. The negative performance of Chinese stocks was largely attributable to further deceleration of industrial profit growth in September (5th consecutive monthly decline).  On the domestic data front, personal income growth was below expectations in September (0.2% vs. 0.4%), but spending was in line with expectations for the month (0.4%). Additionally, the August growth rates for both income and spending growth were revised higher. Headline inflation was also in line with expectations, with the PCE deflator up 0.1% m/m and 2.0% y/y. However, PCE core was firmer than expected on monthly basis (0.2% vs. 0.1%). On a year-over-year basis, the core measure held steady at 2% in September. Inflation concerns and subsequent increases in bond yields have weighed on equities in recent weeks, and today’s data shouldn’t really alter the narrative in either direction. For the rest of the week, the October jobs report on Friday should capture the most attention from investors from an economic data perspective.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

 

DateEventSurveyActualPrior
10/29Personal Income0.40%0.20%0.30%
10/29Personal Spending0.40%0.40%0.30%
10/29Real Personal Spending0.30%0.30%0.20%
10/29PCE Deflator MoM0.10%0.10%0.10%
10/29PCE Deflator YoY2.00%2.00%2.20%
10/29PCE Core MoM0.10%0.20%0.00%
10/29PCE Core YoY2.00%2.00%2.00%
10/29Dallas Fed Manf. Activity28.1—28.1
10/30S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA0.10%—0.09%
10/30S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA5.80%—5.92%
10/30S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index——213.76
10/30S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index——205.35
10/30S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA——6.00%
10/30Conf. Board Consumer Confidence136—138.4
10/30Conf. Board Present Situation——173.1
10/30Conf. Board Expectations——115.3
10/31MBA Mortgage Applications——4.90%
10/31ADP Employment Change189k—230k
10/31Employment Cost Index0.70%—0.60%
10/31Chicago Purchasing Manager60—60.4
11/01Challenger Job Cuts YoY——70.90%
11/01Nonfarm Productivity2.10%—2.90%
11/01Unit Labor Costs1.10%—-1.00%
11/01Initial Jobless Claims213k—215k
11/01Continuing Claims1639k—1636k
11/01Bloomberg Consumer Comfort——60.1
11/01Markit US Manufacturing PMI55.8—55.9
11/01Construction Spending MoM0.00%—0.10%
11/01ISM Manufacturing59—59.8
11/01ISM Employment——58.8
11/01ISM Prices Paid——66.9
11/01ISM New Orders——61.8
11/01Wards Total Vehicle Sales17.00m—17.40m
11/02Trade Balance-$53.6b—-$53.2b
11/02Change in Nonfarm Payrolls193k—134k
11/02Two-Month Payroll Net Revision———
11/02Change in Private Payrolls190k—121k
11/02Change in Manufact. Payrolls16k—18k
11/02Unemployment Rate3.70%—3.70%
11/02Underemployment Rate——7.50%
11/02Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.20%—0.30%
11/02Average Hourly Earnings YoY3.20%—2.80%
11/02Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.5—34.5
11/02Labor Force Participation Rate62.70%—62.70%
11/02Factory Orders0.50%—2.30%
11/02Factory Orders Ex Trans——0.10%
11/02Durable Goods Orders——0.80%
11/02Durables Ex Transportation——0.10%
11/02Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air——-0.10%
11/02Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air——0.00%