Treasuries were well bid overnight amid weakness in Asian equities (Shanghai Composite -2.2%), but prices are now lower on the day across the curve on strength in U.S. and European equity markets. The negative performance of Chinese stocks was largely attributable to further deceleration of industrial profit growth in September (5th consecutive monthly decline).  On the domestic data front, personal income growth was below expectations in September (0.2% vs. 0.4%), but spending was in line with expectations for the month (0.4%). Additionally, the August growth rates for both income and spending growth were revised higher. Headline inflation was also in line with expectations, with the PCE deflator up 0.1% m/m and 2.0% y/y. However, PCE core was firmer than expected on monthly basis (0.2% vs. 0.1%). On a year-over-year basis, the core measure held steady at 2% in September. Inflation concerns and subsequent increases in bond yields have weighed on equities in recent weeks, and today’s data shouldn’t really alter the narrative in either direction. For the rest of the week, the October jobs report on Friday should capture the most attention from investors from an economic data perspective.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

 

Date Event Survey Actual Prior
10/29 Personal Income 0.40% 0.20% 0.30%
10/29 Personal Spending 0.40% 0.40% 0.30%
10/29 Real Personal Spending 0.30% 0.30% 0.20%
10/29 PCE Deflator MoM 0.10% 0.10% 0.10%
10/29 PCE Deflator YoY 2.00% 2.00% 2.20%
10/29 PCE Core MoM 0.10% 0.20% 0.00%
10/29 PCE Core YoY 2.00% 2.00% 2.00%
10/29 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity 28.1 28.1
10/30 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA 0.10% 0.09%
10/30 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA 5.80% 5.92%
10/30 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index 213.76
10/30 S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index 205.35
10/30 S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA 6.00%
10/30 Conf. Board Consumer Confidence 136 138.4
10/30 Conf. Board Present Situation 173.1
10/30 Conf. Board Expectations 115.3
10/31 MBA Mortgage Applications 4.90%
10/31 ADP Employment Change 189k 230k
10/31 Employment Cost Index 0.70% 0.60%
10/31 Chicago Purchasing Manager 60 60.4
11/01 Challenger Job Cuts YoY 70.90%
11/01 Nonfarm Productivity 2.10% 2.90%
11/01 Unit Labor Costs 1.10% -1.00%
11/01 Initial Jobless Claims 213k 215k
11/01 Continuing Claims 1639k 1636k
11/01 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 60.1
11/01 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 55.8 55.9
11/01 Construction Spending MoM 0.00% 0.10%
11/01 ISM Manufacturing 59 59.8
11/01 ISM Employment 58.8
11/01 ISM Prices Paid 66.9
11/01 ISM New Orders 61.8
11/01 Wards Total Vehicle Sales 17.00m 17.40m
11/02 Trade Balance -$53.6b -$53.2b
11/02 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 193k 134k
11/02 Two-Month Payroll Net Revision
11/02 Change in Private Payrolls 190k 121k
11/02 Change in Manufact. Payrolls 16k 18k
11/02 Unemployment Rate 3.70% 3.70%
11/02 Underemployment Rate 7.50%
11/02 Average Hourly Earnings MoM 0.20% 0.30%
11/02 Average Hourly Earnings YoY 3.20% 2.80%
11/02 Average Weekly Hours All Employees 34.5 34.5
11/02 Labor Force Participation Rate 62.70% 62.70%
11/02 Factory Orders 0.50% 2.30%
11/02 Factory Orders Ex Trans 0.10%
11/02 Durable Goods Orders 0.80%
11/02 Durables Ex Transportation 0.10%
11/02 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air -0.10%
11/02 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air 0.00%