Treasuries were well bid overnight amid weakness in Asian equities (Shanghai Composite -2.2%), but prices are now lower on the day across the curve on strength in U.S. and European equity markets. The negative performance of Chinese stocks was largely attributable to further deceleration of industrial profit growth in September (5th consecutive monthly decline).  On the domestic data front, personal income growth was below expectations in September (0.2% vs. 0.4%), but spending was in line with expectations for the month (0.4%). Additionally, the August growth rates for both income and spending growth were revised higher. Headline inflation was also in line with expectations, with the PCE deflator up 0.1% m/m and 2.0% y/y. However, PCE core was firmer than expected on monthly basis (0.2% vs. 0.1%). On a year-over-year basis, the core measure held steady at 2% in September. Inflation concerns and subsequent increases in bond yields have weighed on equities in recent weeks, and today’s data shouldn’t really alter the narrative in either direction. For the rest of the week, the October jobs report on Friday should capture the most attention from investors from an economic data perspective.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group


10/29Personal Income0.40%0.20%0.30%
10/29Personal Spending0.40%0.40%0.30%
10/29Real Personal Spending0.30%0.30%0.20%
10/29PCE Deflator MoM0.10%0.10%0.10%
10/29PCE Deflator YoY2.00%2.00%2.20%
10/29PCE Core MoM0.10%0.20%0.00%
10/29PCE Core YoY2.00%2.00%2.00%
10/29Dallas Fed Manf. Activity28.128.1
10/30S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA0.10%0.09%
10/30S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA5.80%5.92%
10/30S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index213.76
10/30S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index205.35
10/30S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA6.00%
10/30Conf. Board Consumer Confidence136138.4
10/30Conf. Board Present Situation173.1
10/30Conf. Board Expectations115.3
10/31MBA Mortgage Applications4.90%
10/31ADP Employment Change189k230k
10/31Employment Cost Index0.70%0.60%
10/31Chicago Purchasing Manager6060.4
11/01Challenger Job Cuts YoY70.90%
11/01Nonfarm Productivity2.10%2.90%
11/01Unit Labor Costs1.10%-1.00%
11/01Initial Jobless Claims213k215k
11/01Continuing Claims1639k1636k
11/01Bloomberg Consumer Comfort60.1
11/01Markit US Manufacturing PMI55.855.9
11/01Construction Spending MoM0.00%0.10%
11/01ISM Manufacturing5959.8
11/01ISM Employment58.8
11/01ISM Prices Paid66.9
11/01ISM New Orders61.8
11/01Wards Total Vehicle Sales17.00m17.40m
11/02Trade Balance-$53.6b-$53.2b
11/02Change in Nonfarm Payrolls193k134k
11/02Two-Month Payroll Net Revision
11/02Change in Private Payrolls190k121k
11/02Change in Manufact. Payrolls16k18k
11/02Unemployment Rate3.70%3.70%
11/02Underemployment Rate7.50%
11/02Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.20%0.30%
11/02Average Hourly Earnings YoY3.20%2.80%
11/02Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.534.5
11/02Labor Force Participation Rate62.70%62.70%
11/02Factory Orders0.50%2.30%
11/02Factory Orders Ex Trans0.10%
11/02Durable Goods Orders0.80%
11/02Durables Ex Transportation0.10%
11/02Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air-0.10%
11/02Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.00%